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P 211556Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
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INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 0757

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DUBLIN 000289 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD EINV EAIR MOPPS MARR EI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF CODEL LEAHY TO IRELAND 
 
DUBLIN 00000289  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  (U) CODEL Leahy will arrive against a backdrop of a new 
Irish Government led by Prime Minister Brian Cowen, the 
continuing successful peace process in Northern Ireland, a 
slowing, but still world-class economic growth -- the "Celtic 
Tiger" -- and an Ireland that is increasingly engaged in 
foreign affairs and global issues through the European Union 
and the United Nations.  An international meeting to 
negotiate a ban on cluster munitions -- the Oslo Process -- 
will be underway. 
 
----------------- 
Domestic Politics 
----------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Ireland's May 2007 general election brought Fianna 
Fail, led by Prime Minister (also known as the Taoiseach, 
TEE-SHUCK) Bertie Ahern, into a third successive coalition 
government; this time with the Green Party and the 
Progressive Democrats as partners.  On April 2, 2008, Ahern 
caught Ireland by surprise by announcing his resignation, 
effective May 6.  Ahern stated that he was stepping aside 
because the attention paid to the long-standing Irish Mahon 
Tribunal investigations into his personal finances was 
becoming a distraction from the more important work of 
governing.  He nonetheless emotionally reiterated that he 
never took any "corrupt payments" and that his resignation 
was a personal decision not driven by the Tribunal 
proceedings.  At the invitation of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 
Ahern addressed a Joint Session of Congress on April 30, one 
of his last actions as Prime Minister. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Ahern's heir designate, former Fianna Fail Deputy 
Party Leader and Finance Minister Brian Cowen, replaced Ahern 
as Prime Minister on May 7, having previously been selected 
as the head of Fianna Fail party.  Previous to holding the 
Finance Minister portfolio, Cowen was Foreign Minister from 
January 2004 through September 2004.  On May 8, the entire 
Irish Government was reinstated, following a Cabinet shake-up 
by Cowen.  While Cowen made more Cabinet changes than 
expected, he largely re-shuffled Cabinet Ministries (rather 
than moving Ministers out), positioning his most trusted 
colleagues close to him.  We do not expect any change in 
U.S.-Irish bilateral relations under Cowen's leadership 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Looming large on the political horizon is a 
national referendum on June 12 on whether to endorse the EU 
Lisbon Treaty.  Ireland is the only EU state holding such a 
referendum, which will be viewed by many as a measure of 
Cowen and Fianna Fail's political strength as Cowen prepares 
to lead Fianna Fail into local elections and the European 
Parliament elections in June 2009.  In terms of immediate 
U.S. interests, the Irish Government remains committed to 
facilitate U.S. military transits at Shannon and Dublin 
Airports, despite opposition from some sources to U.S. 
efforts in the Gulf region and public suspicion by some that 
Irish airports have been used for terrorist renditions. 
Ireland is also participating enthusiastically in 
negotiations for the establishment of full pre-clearance 
facilities in Ireland for both commercial and general 
aviation flights to the U.S.  Most observers consider 
approval of the Treaty more likely then not. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In terms of immediate U.S. interests, the Irish 
Government remains committed to facilitate U.S. military 
transits at Shannon and Dublin Airports, despite opposition 
from some sources to U.S. efforts in the Gulf region and 
public suspicion by some that Irish airports have been used 
for terrorist-related renditions.  In 2007, over 250,000 U.S. 
troops transited Ireland to and from Iraq and Afghanistan. 
In a related matter, Ireland is also participating 
enthusiastically in negotiations for the establishment of 
full pre-clearance facilities in Ireland for both commercial 
and general aviation flights to the U.S., expanding on 
current DHS/CBP pre-inspection processes at both airports. 
 
¶6.  (U) Long a vital element in the U.S.-Irish relationship, 
emigration has declined significantly with Ireland's economic 
boom in the 1990s and 2000s.  For the first time in its 
modern history, Ireland is experiencing high levels of inward 
migration from mostly Eastern European, a phenomenon with 
political, economic and social implications. 
 
-------------------------- 
Sustained Economic Success 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Solid economic growth (4.2 percent through 3Q 2007) 
generated 78,000 new Irish jobs for the year ending in May 
2007 and yielded one of the EU's lowest unemployment rates of 
4.5 percent.  The foundation of Ireland's Celtic Tiger 
transformation has been low corporate tax rates, industrial 
 
DUBLIN 00000289  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
peace, pro-investment policies, fiscal responsibility, and 
effective use of EU support funds.  These factors have led 
over 600 U.S. firms to establish operations in Ireland; the 
stock of U.S. investment in the country is, in fact, 
significantly more than the U.S. combined total in the BRIC 
countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).  With plentiful 
jobs, Ireland has also become a magnet for inward EU 
immigration, attracting over 100,000 new arrivals since the 
accession of ten new EU Member States in 2004, though the 
rate of inward EU migration has recently slowed.  Economic 
success has also made Ireland a role model for new EU members 
and a more confident diplomatic go-between for the United 
States and the EU, as personified by the EU Ambassador to the 
United States, former Irish Prime Minister John Bruton. 
Nonetheless, as in the U.S., Ireland is experiencing slower 
growth, driven by a slowdown in the housing market, 
tightening credit, and inadequate infrastructure that has not 
kept pace with the growth of the Celtic Tiger. 
 
---------------- 
Northern Ireland 
---------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Following a series of historic decisions - 
including the St. Andrews Agreement in October 2006, the 
January 2007 Sinn Fein decision to endorse policing and 
justice, and the spring 2007 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 
decision to share power with Sinn Fein - the Northern Ireland 
Assembly was restored in May 2007.  Since then, North-South 
institutions, such as the North-South Ministerial Council and 
InterTradeIreland, are up and running.  However, the Irish 
Government continues to press for the devolution of the 
powers of policing and justice, which remain under the direct 
control of the British Government. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) For years, the USG ) including Presidents Clinton 
and Bush ) have strongly supported the Northern Ireland 
peace process.  The USG has consistently taken the position 
that the devolution of policing and justice is an important 
and integral part of the process.  Current USG initiatives in 
support of the peace process focus on economic growth and 
community reconciliation in the North.  In May 2008, the USG 
supported a very successful investment conference in Northern 
Ireland designed to attract American investment.  Headlined 
by a Presidential delegation including Mayor of New York 
Michael Bloomberg, the conference attracted over 90 American 
companies. 
 
--------------------------- 
Global and Regional Efforts 
--------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The U.S. and Ireland have worked closely and 
effectively on issues of shared concern mostly through 
Ireland's participation in multilateral organizations such as 
the UN and the EU.  For example, Ireland leads the EU mission 
in Chad.  It also recently resettled Cuban refugees 
sheltering at Guantanamo.  Ireland's military neutrality, 
however, remains an important cornerstone of its foreign 
policy, and will need to be considered when proposing 
bilateral initiatives. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Cluster Munitions.  Ireland is a founding member 
of the Oslo Process, which seeks to ban cluster munitions. 
Former Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern (now Minister for 
Justice), who witnessed the impact of unexploded ordinance on 
civilians in Lebanon following the Israeli incursion in July 
2006, launched these efforts.  Ireland remains convinced that 
the May 19-30 Dublin Conference will produce a final Cluster 
Munitions Convention, ready for signature in Oslo in December 
¶2008.  "Interoperability" and "definitions" constitute the 
crux of the Conference negotiations according to the Irish. 
Ireland plans to work to expand the language of the draft 
conventions to diminish the chance of unintended 
consequences.  Ireland will also  seek to achieve compromises 
in the language of the text so as to not disrupt critical 
ongoing and future peacekeeping collaboration and existing 
alliances. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The Dublin Diplomatic Conference on Cluster 
Munitions will be in session from May 19-30 (during your 
visit).  The United States is not participating in this 
conference.  The United States opposes a full ban, due to the 
fact that cluster munitions are integral to our force 
structure.  Like the states participating in the Oslo 
Process, the U.S. wants to minimize the humanitarian impact 
of all explosive remnants of war, including unexploded 
cluster munitions.  However, in our experience, 
weapons-related restrictions work best if applied 
universally.  Only the Convention on Conventional Weapons 
(CCW), which operates by consensus and included all major 
 
DUBLIN 00000289  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
users and producers of cluster munitions, can achieve such 
universality while balancing humanitarian concerns with 
military utility.  Thus far, the CCW negotiations have 
achieved some positive results.  The next session is in July. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) The United States is the global leader in taking 
action to minimize the humanitarian harm caused by cluster 
munitions and other explosive remnants of war.  The United 
States has allocated approximately $45 million to clear 
cluster munitions in nine states; this figure is part of over 
$1.2 billion the U.S. has cumulatively contributed to 
humanitarian mine action and clearance of other explosive 
remnants of war across the globe.  To lessen the impact of 
cluster munitions on civilians, the Department of Defense has 
reviewed rules of engagement, conducted a munitions 
reliability study, retrofitted some of its cluster munitions 
stocks, currently uses strict targeting procedures, and 
continues to develop and field more reliable systems. 
Consistent with Protocol V on "Explosive Remnants of War" of 
the CCW, the U.S. has provided strike data to assist 
humanitarian organizations in clearance activities and 
improved our information sharing processes.  Since 2001, the 
Department of Defense policy has been that new types of 
munitions will have a 99 percent or better functioning rate 
in testing.  There is an on going review of cluster munitions 
policy, which will make further improvements to the 
reliability of cluster munitions in the U.S. arsenal. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Iraq.  The USG appreciates Ireland's steadfast 
support in permitting U.S. military transits at Shannon and 
Dublin Airports (over one million troops since 2003; 262,000 
in 2007) which backstop U.S. actions in the Gulf region, 
despite the unpopularity of this policy domestically. 
Ireland has also made a commitment of over three million 
euros to the EU's reconstruction efforts in Iraq. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Immigration.  The Irish Government continues to 
consult and lobby with Congress and Irish-American groups on 
behalf of Irish residing illegally in the U.S., variously 
estimated at between 5,000 and 50,000.  A special unit of the 
Department of Foreign Affairs, set up in 2006 to assist the 
Irish Diaspora, assists Ambassador Michael Collins in this 
endeavor.  While the Irish Government understands that Irish 
illegal aliens will not be dealt with separately from 
comprehensive U.S. immigration reform, the Irish take this 
emotive domestic issue to heart.  Irish officials regularly 
express deep concern for these illegals and ask the USG to 
regularize their status as soon as possible. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Special Visas.  Ireland has requested approval of 
a special visa category, such as the Australian E-3 visa or a 
modified J-1 visa, which would enable Irish citizens to live 
and work in U.S. for durations longer than currently 
available under existing visa regulations.  This request is 
being reviewed by the White House, the State Department and 
the Department of Homeland Security. 
 
¶17.  (SBU) International Economy.  Ireland's economy is 
closely tied to the economy of the U.S., as well as to 
American investment.  Ireland is worried that U.S. economic 
difficulties will reverberate strongly in Ireland.  Ireland's 
economic policies are expected to remain staunchly 
pro-American business. 
 
¶18.  (SBU) The Middle East.  Ireland supports the 
international community in calling for Hamas to renounce 
violence and to recognize Israel's right to exist.  It 
supports the two-state solution.  While concerned about 
Hamas' attacks on Israel, Ireland also believes that Israel's 
armed response has been disproportionately fierce.  The Irish 
are dismayed at the level of violence and are supportive of 
the use of USG influence to make headway in the Middle East 
Peace Process.  Irish popular opinion generally favors the 
Palestinian cause. 
 
¶19.  (SBU) Iran.  While Ireland has generally supported 
international dialogue with Iran rather than sanctions, it 
recognizes that unchecked Iranian development of nuclear 
capability and its flouting of UNSC Resolutions represent a 
threat to the international community.  Ireland supported the 
most recent third UNSCR on Iran in March 2008. 
 
¶20.  (SBU) Irish Peacekeeping/Darfur/Chad.  The Irish Defense 
Forces have roughly 760 troops serving in multilateral 
peacekeeping missions in Kosovo, Chad, Bosnia, Afghanistan, 
and elsewhere.  Ireland is contributing 350-400 troops to the 
EU's ESDP mission to Chad, which is led by an Irish General, 
and sees this peacekeeping effort as contributing to the 
situation in adjacent Darfur.  The Irish Government prefers 
not to expand its military engagement in Afghanistan, though 
it will consider additional development and humanitarian 
 
DUBLIN 00000289  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
assistance. 
 
¶21.  (SBU) Kosovo.  Ireland has consistently worked within 
the EU to forge a common position on Kosovo's independence 
and supported the Ahtisaari Plan.  On February 28, Ireland 
recognized Kosovo's independence; the fourteenth country in 
the world to do so.  It will continue its engagement in KFOR 
(for which it is the framework, or lead, nation and 
contributes 270 troops), contribute officers to the ESDP 
police mission, and allocate substantial additional 
development and humanitarian assistance. 
 
¶22.  (SBU) Conflict Resolution.  In 2007, then Foreign 
Minister Dermot Ahern (now the Justice Minister) announced 
the opening of a new Conflict Resolution Unit (CRU) in the 
Department of Foreign Affairs.  The Irish hope to use lessons 
learned in Northern Ireland to help other conflict areas of 
the world.  The CRU,s first initiative will be in East 
Timor.  The new Department of Foreign Affairs Conflict 
Resolution Unit has chosen East Timor as its first major 
conflict resolution intervention initiative. 
 
¶23.  (SBU) Development Assistance.  Ireland aims to 
contribute 0.7 percent of GDP to overseas development 
assistance by 2012.  Africa is a particular focus. 
 
¶24.  (SBU) Climate Change.  Although the Irish public and 
media criticize the United States for remaining outside the 
Kyoto Protocol, Ireland's rapid economic growth has made it 
difficult for the country to meet its own Kyoto commitments. 
Under the Protocol, Ireland pledged to reduce emissions to 13 
percent above the 1990 levels by 2012, but emissions now 
stand at 25 percent above the 1990 threshold.  Ireland has 
also signed on to even more stringent EU requirements of 
reducing emissions by (up to) 30 percent by 2020.  In this 
context, the Government has welcomed Embassy proposals for a 
cooperative approach to climate change and we are working on 
bilateral initiatives focused on ocean/wave energy, methane 
capture, and clean coal technologies. 
 
FOLEY