VZCZCXRO6158
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHCO #0288/01 1370458
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 160458Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY COTONOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0321
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 0298
RUEHNM/AMEMBASSY NIAMEY 1289
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1428

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COTONOU 000288 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W DANA BANKS AND AF/EPS 
STATE FOR EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP JANET SPECK 
DAKAR FOR FAS ROBERT HANSON 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS USAID/WA FOR NATALIE FREEMAN AND USAID/AFR/DP 
FOR TIM LAVELLE 
 
E.O.12958:N/A 
TAGS: EAGREAIDPGOVPRELBN
SUBJECT: FOOD DEFICIT REPORTED IN BENIN 
 
REF:(A) COTONOU 262 (B) COTONOU 255 
 
1.(SBU) Summary: Benin's National Food Aid and Security Office, 
ONASA, provided the Embassy on May 15 with an estimate of Benin's 
food deficit over the coming months.  According to ONASA, Benin will 
have a deficit of 50,000 tons of corn, 20,000 tons of rice, and 
3,000 tons of beans between now and the end of the harvest in 
December 2008. A high-level source in the Ministry of Agriculture 
told the embassy that Benin is formulating a request for 
international assistance in procuring fertilizer, irrigation 
equipment, and wells but not direct food aid.  The World Food 
Program (WFP) Coordinator for Food Security in Benin told Poloff the 
food security situation in Benin will not become a "catastrophe" but 
will be "serious", particularly in northern Benin.  The public 
remains frustrated with rising prices (inflation reached 5.7% in 
March 2008) but there is no indication that this frustration will 
turn violent or present a serious challenge to the government. End 
Summary. 
 
--------------------- 
Food Deficit Reported 
--------------------- 
 
2.(U) Following President Yayi's letter to President Bush (Ref A) 
and at the request of the Embassy, ONASA provided an estimate of 
Benin's food deficit until December 2008.  The 2008 harvest will 
finish in northern Benin in December.  According to ONASA's 
projections, Benin faces a deficit of 50,000 tons of corn, 20,000 
tons of rice, and 3,000 tons of beans.  The deficit quantity is 
based on an estimate of the amount of each foodstuff currently 
available for sale, the amount held by households, and the 
possibility of importing additional quantities of the foodstuff. 
Evariste Gounou, the ONASA official preparing this estimate, added 
that ONASA did not know the locations which would be most affected 
by the deficit nor if the GOB would need to procure the entire 
deficit amount to avoid a food crisis.  The projected deficit in 
corn is significant, given that Benin traditionally imports more 
food than it produces and is usually self-sufficient in corn 
production. 
 
3.(U) Benin's projected corn deficit, and the 90% increase in the 
price of corn between 2007 and 2008 (Ref B), is in part due to 
increased demand from Nigeria and Niger.  According to GOB officials 
most corn leaves Benin "informally" and statistics on corn exports 
do not exist.  The lack of such statistics makes it difficult to 
verify the estimated corn deficit.  According to the Ministry of 
Agriculture, the 2007 harvest produced approximately 760,000 tons of 
corn.  Benin consumes annually approximately 574,000 tons of corn, 
according to ONASA.  This leaves an apparent surplus of 186,000 tons 
of corn.   However, according to a Food and Agriculture Organization 
(FAO) report and GOB officials, there is an intense demand from 
Nigeria, and to a lesser extent Niger, for Beninese corn. 
 
-------------------- 
Government Responses 
-------------------- 
 
4.(SBU) Aly Bouco Imorou, the Ministry of Agriculture's Secretary 
General, told PolOff on May 15 that the GOB did not intend to 
request international food aid but would instead request assistance 
with procuring fertilizer, irrigation equipment, and wells to boost 
agricultural production.  He told PolOff the Minister of Agriculture 
was reviewing the proposal and he expected it to be released by May 
¶19.  This corresponds with President Yayi's May 13 speech to 
agricultural school students in Parakou during which he called for 
an increase in agricultural productivity. 
 
5.(SBU) In response to rising food prices, the GOB has continued to 
sell subsidized corn from its strategic reserves in Cotonou and 
other urban areas (Ref B).  According to Irenee Aboudou, the 
Director General of ONASA, sales of subsidized corn average thirty 
tons a day in Cotonou.  Representatives from ONASA and the WFP Food 
Security Coordinator told Poloff that ONASA is having difficulty 
finding additional corn in the market, at a price the GOB can 
afford, to replenish its stocks.  In addition to subsidized food 
sales, the GOB announced on May 2 the creation of a crisis working 
group to monitor the production and sale of food.  The GOB also 
announced a three month suspension of the value added tax on 
ordinary rice, wheat flower, milk, pasta, and tomato paste. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
COTONOU 00000288  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
6.(SBU)Comment: Benin certainly faces, along with its neighbors in 
the sub-region, the challenge of feeding its population in the face 
of rising prices.  While the GOB took early action to respond to 
these increases, there now seems to be some confusion in the GOB 
response. President Yayi's letter to President Bush (Ref A) which 
alludes to the possibility of social unrest if food aid is not 
forthcoming does not correspond with an outline for assistance the 
Secretary General at the Ministry of Agriculture described. 
President Yayi's request for assistance also came before ONASA's 
efforts to create a food deficit estimate.  The value of this 
estimate is hampered by the lack of statistics on Benin's corn 
exports. The threat of hunger due to rising prices is real in some 
parts of Benin, particularly the north and among poor urban city 
dwellers; though food substitution may alleviate some of these 
pressures.  In spite of this threat Post continues to assess as low, 
the possibility of violence or social unrest resulting from rising 
food prices. End Comment. 
 
BOUSTANI