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Viewing cable 08ABIDJAN346, AF/W DIRECTOR DOUGHERTY DISCUSSES FINANCING THE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08ABIDJAN346 2008-05-29 16:34 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Abidjan
VZCZCXRO6173
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHAB #0346/01 1501634
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 291634Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4262
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS 0050
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABIDJAN 000346 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EEB FOR K.DIZOGLIO, AF/EPS FOR E.REPKO, AF/W FOR E.PLUMB 
TREASURY FOR R.HALL, D.PETERS 
AMEMBASSY TUNIS FOR R.ADKINS 
USAID/AFR/WA FOR S.SWIFT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PRELAFDB AFDB EAID ECON IMF IBRD IV
SUBJECT: AF/W DIRECTOR DOUGHERTY DISCUSSES FINANCING THE 
END OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS WITH KEY ACTORS 
 
REF: A. ABIDJAN 337 
     B. ABIDJAN 286 
     C. ABIDJAN 274 
 
Classified By: EconChief EMassinga, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  State AF/W Director Thomas Dougherty 
discussed the pivotal question of financing for the end of 
crisis package ("sortie de crise" in French) with a number of 
key interlocutors during his May 14-18 visit to Abidjan. 
Interlocutors discussed Cote d'Ivoire's Highly Indebted Poor 
Country (HIPC) eligibility and the conditions to reduce the 
country's debt burden, the country's weak fiscal balance 
sheet and the state of affairs related to SAGEM.  Lastly, he 
discussed questions related to the much-anticipated launch of 
the civic service program to absorb unemployed soldiers 
cashiered out of the armed forces, rebel armed groups and 
militias.  End Summary. 
 
International and Financier Communities Views on Financial 
Situation 
--------- 
2. (C) During a meeting with representatives of the IMF, 
World Bank, EU, UNOCI, UNDP and several others, IMF ResRep 
Eugume said the national treasury is "empty", and that 
without an eventual debt reduction through the HIPC program 
the country could be left without the means to pay for the 
sortie de crise.  This would pose a potentially awkward 
situation for the international community, which is 
ostensibly engaged in Cote d'Ivoire to support crisis 
recovery and development.  The ResRep cited as examples of 
the Ivoirian treasury's distress the fact that SAGEM was 
supposed to have been paid 12 billion CFA (USD 29 million) in 
April and 10 billion (USD 24 million) in May.  (Note:  The 
government paid SAGEM an initial tranche of CFA 10 billion 
(USD 24 million) on May 27, that should have originally been 
paid in April, but still owes CFA 10 billion promised by the 
end of May.  End note). 
 
3.  (C) Eugume added that while his information indicates the 
treasury has 100 billion CFA (USD 241 million) on hand, it 
owes CFA 24 billion (USD 57 million) to private schools for 
promised subsidies, CFA 80 billion (USD 192 million) to the 
AfDB as part of the arrears clearance package and CFA 9 
billion (USD 22 million) for demobilization payments to 
Forces Nouvelles (FN) troops.  Moreover, the state has 
already exceeded the CFA 90 billion (USD 216 million) 
budgeted for electricity subsidies for all of 2008, refusing 
to take the politically painful measure of raising 
residential and business rates. 
 
4.  (C) While the entire donor community agrees that Cote 
d'Ivoire needs substantial debt relief, few are inclined to 
support special treatment for Cote d,Ivoire given its recent 
track record.  Dougherty heard some debate regarding whether 
debt relief should be granted early, i.e., by the end of 2008 
or later, by mid to late 2009.  Eugume argued for an early 
HIPC "Decision Point" and said Cote d'Ivoire's opportunity to 
quality for HIPC could become increasingly questionable as 
time passes.  He said that the key to qualifying will be when 
the calculation of export to debt ratio is done - if the 
calculation is made at the end of 2008/early 2009, debt 
relief already granted in the form of WB and AfDB arrears 
clearances (totaling $800 million), Cote d'Ivoire could very 
well fall short of the 250 percent debt/export ratio cutoff 
point stipulated by the HIPC rules and the country would not 
qualify. 
 
5. (C) Additionally, Eugume said that HIPC Decision Points 
are usually only agreed to while a country is under a 
rigorously negotiated and closely monitored Poverty Reduction 
and Growth Facility (PRGF).  Cote d'Ivoire, by contrast, is 
only beginning its PRGF negotiations and under the most 
aggressive scenario, would have only a six month track record 
to back its application, which would be mitigated by 
mediocre-to-poor performance under the IMF's 
already-disbursed USD 120 million EPCA (Emergency Post 
Conflict Assistance) package.  Eugume, supported by World 
Bank's Interim Country Manager Daniel Sellen, agreed that 
Cote d'Ivoire's fiscal management falls short in controlling 
presidential spending, subsidies and openly accounting for 
all of its oil revenues, but believe that the people of the 
country merit the relief HIPC can offer. 
 
6.  (C) A cross-section of West African financiers with whom 
 
ABIDJAN 00000346  002 OF 003 
 
 
Dougherty met separately echoed Eugume's conclusion that the 
national treasury is short of liquidity.  The financier group 
anticipated, however, that the government would be able to 
continue its heavy borrowing on the local financial markets 
to finance its operations in the short to medium term. 
However, such actions would continue to deprive small and 
medium sized enterprises of capital, as banks prefer to buy 
the never-ending stream of short-term Ivoirian bonds than to 
pursue riskier (but better for the economy's long-term 
health) business development strategies. 
 
SAGEM 
---------- 
7.  (C) Although President Gbagbo had told many of 
Dougherty's interlocutors in the donor community that the 
Ivoirian government "needs to pay SAGEM," the company is 
anxious at its exposure due to the government's non-payment 
(Note:  per para 2 above, the government finally made an 
initial but far short payment to SAGEM on May 27).  Donors 
reported that up to 80 percent of the contract has been 
subcontracted, and most of those contracts have already been 
let, making it difficult for SAGEM to walk away without 
incurring painful costs.  When asked if perhaps the 
government (particularly the presidential camp) never really 
intended to pay SAGEM, the EC Country Representative, Michel 
Arrion, said "the SAGEM decision had been imposed during the 
second Gbagbo-Soro meeting in November 2007" by the 
Facilitator, Blaise Compaore.  Arrion also said Interior 
Minister (and Gbagbo stalwart) Desire Tagro continues to be 
particularly adamant in his opposition to the SAGEM contract. 
 
Civic Service 
-------- 
8.  (C) Arrion said the Commission has had positive dealings 
with Koffi Malan, newly-named head of the Civic Service. 
This entity will focus exclusively on training unskilled 
ex-combatants and preparing them to re-enter society 
peacefully.  Malan is looking at using existing institutions 
(vocational, technical, etc.) for the civic service program. 
Arrion said this approach has a decent chance of success, and 
is being backed by modest support from the Commission (Note: 
on May 26, the civic service program was finally launched 
after many delays, taking in 250 ex-Forces Nouvelles 
combatants.  End note).  Forces Nouvelles spokesman Sidiki 
Konate told Dougherty that the FN was concerned at the slow 
rollout of the civic service, particularly because the 
program is the centerpiece in the plan to deal with both FN 
ex-combatants and pro-government militias. 
 
9.  (C) Malan's style contrasts sharply with that of Daniel 
Ouattara, head of the National Program for Reinsertion and 
Reconstruction.  Ouattara, subject of an unusually personal, 
at times bitter conflict between WB staff and the Prime 
Minister's office, focused initially on creating an expensive 
new infrastructure, rather than leveraging existing 
facilities.  His PNRRC is now to focus exclusively, however, 
on finding jobs for ex-combatants who already have a 
marketable skill. 
 
10. (C) Comment.  Key international and domestic 
interlocutors shared candid observations about the budget and 
macroeconomic situation, SAGEM and the civic service program, 
and despite expected partisan differences, were lQa]RQQ[ist of challenges is not to be dismissed lightly, it 
also must be recognized that the political class, across the 
spectrum, also strongly believes the electoral process will 
somehow move forward.  They seem convinced that the resources 
needed to cope with the litany of challenges ahead will come 
from somewhere, which is perhaps a good (if somewhat 
perplexing) sign of collective hope for the future.  End 
 
ABIDJAN 00000346  003 OF 003 
 
 
Comment 
NESBITT