VZCZCXYZ6821
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMS #0180/01 0621158
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021158Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY MUSCAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9325
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MUSCAT 000180 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2018 
TAGS: PREL LE SY KV AL IZ MU
SUBJECT: DEMARCHE IN ADVANCE OF ARAB LEAGUE MINISTERIAL: 
OMAN WARNS OF PENDING DISASTER OVER LEBANON 
 
REF: A. STATE 19473 
     ¶B. MUSCAT 118 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo for reasons 1.4 (B and D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1.  (C)  Pointing to Lebanon as the critical issue, Omani 
Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusef bin Alawi 
offered a gloomy forecast for the Arab League (AL) foreign 
ministers meeting scheduled later this week in Cairo and 
potentially for the AL Summit later this month.  The 
Ambassador called on bin Alawi March 2 to deliver ref A 
demarche in advance of the March 5 AL ministerial.  Bin Alawi 
offered a quick summary of discussions at the March 1 GCC 
foreign ministers meeting in Riyadh, calling attention to an 
unusually harsh presentation on Syria and Iran by Saudi FM 
Sa'ud Al Feisal.  Oman has not yet decided who will represent 
the Sultanate in Damascus, but it will not be Sultan Qaboos. 
The minister also reported that the GCC had issued a 
statement following yesterday's foreign ministers meeting in 
support of Kosovo independence; Oman, however, will withhold 
its decision at least until after the OIC Summit later in the 
month.  End Summary. 
 
Lebanon:  A Test for the Arab League 
------------------------------------ 
¶2.  (C)  Bin Alawi described Sa'ud Al Feisal's argument on 
Syria at the March 1 GCC FM gathering in Riyadh as "unusually 
tough."  Essentially, the Saudis are looking to force 
Damascus to choose whether "it is with Iran or the Arabs," 
using Lebanon and the AL Summit as the test.  The Saudi 
reportedly characterized the Lebanon crisis in terms of 
Iran's attempt to establish hegemony in the Arab world, which 
(quoting the Saudi FM) "is unacceptable."  According to bin 
Alawi, FM Sa'ud Al Feisal called on the GCC and broader AL to 
"fully isolate Damascus" if the Syrians are unwilling to back 
down and allow the Lebanese presidential election to proceed, 
with Sleiman the expected winner. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Bin Alawi said he was struck by not only the gravity 
of Sa'ud Al Feisal's words but also the apparent attempt to 
cast the Lebanon issue now in terms of "the Arab world versus 
Iran."  "We are not ready to accept that," said the Omani 
minister.  Instead, he said, the AL must break down the 
problem and look for interest groups prepared to compromise. 
In his view, Michel Aoun is the most intransigent, bent on 
throwing up as many obstacles to the election as possible in 
the vain hope of getting himself elected.  However, bin Alawi 
opined that March 14, Amal and even Hezballah might be ready 
to strike a deal in the interest of avoiding the chaos of 
Lebanon without a president for an indefinite period of time. 
 Therefore, he argued for one last AL attempt at bridging 
differences among these groups before giving in to the Saudi 
argument.  He said that at the AL ministerial he and others 
would make one final push for this approach. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Bin Alawi stated that even if there is a Lebanese 
president, the Saudis are unlikely to send anyone higher than 
their ambassador to Damascus to the March 27 Summit, "if it 
happens."  He would not hazard a guess on the level of 
representation of other Arab governments, but predicted it 
would not be well attended.  Oman has not decided on its 
representation, but the Sultan would definitely not attend. 
Concluding his discussion of Lebanon, the Omani minister 
commented that Lebanon and the threat of a canceled summit 
presented the Arab League with its "most difficult test in 
years," one with the real possibility of seriously 
undermining the credibility of the AL and Arab unity. 
 
Kosovo:  GCC Support May Not Mean Recognition 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶5.  (C)  Bin Alawi said the GCC had issued a statement 
following the GCC FM meeting in Riyadh March 1 in support of 
Kosovo independence.  However, GCC governments reportedly 
agreed to delay individual decisions on recognition and any 
subsequent announcement until after the OIC Summit later this 
month.  He avoided clearly stating whether any GCC states, 
including Oman, had reached a decision, deferring to the OIC 
Summit and, in Oman's case, the traditional approach of 
withholding such decisions until there was an exchange of 
ambassadors. 
 
Iraq:  Foreign Fighters Exacerbates Saudi-Syrian Rift 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
¶6.  (C)  Bin Alawi agreed with our point on Syria's 
tolerance, if not open facilitation, of movement of foreign 
fighters through its territory into Iraq.  However, he could 
not explain the apparent contradiction between the fact that 
almost all the foreign fighters are Sunnis with Al Qa'ida 
connections and the claim that they are backed by Shi'a Iran. 
 
 (Comment:  Despite previously provided background 
information from us on Iran's support for both Al Qa'ida and 
the Taliban, bin Alawi appears wedded to the view that Shi'a 
Iranians would not support Sunni terrorists.  End comment.) 
The larger concern, however, was that this is yet another 
issue stoking Saudi animus toward Damascus.  He did not 
expect significant attention to be devoted to this issue in 
Cairo, given the looming matter of Lebanon and attendant 
Saudi-Syrian feud. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶7.  (C)  Per ref B, the Omanis see Lebanon )- and 
concomitantly, the Arab League -- on the brink and 
compromise, even capitulation, preferable to disaster.  After 
Sa'ud Al Feisal's reported apocalyptic assessment of the 
Iranian challenge and Syria's estrangement from its Arab 
brethren, bin Alawi seemed to cast the upcoming summit in 
almost existential terms.  Challenged to describe a viable AL 
plan if, on the eve of the summit, there is no acceptable 
Lebanese president, bin Alawi could only acknowledge the 
"disaster for Lebanon and for the Arab League itself," not 
only for having failed to address a problem entirely within 
itself but also having to face the prospect of Saudi Arabia's 
doomsday scenario of Iran as the common enemy of the Arabs. 
GRAPPO