VZCZCXRO6129
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
DE RUEHLI #0351/01 0431740
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 121740Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6623
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 0548
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI PRIORITY
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA PRIORITY 0385
RUEHKL/AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR PRIORITY 0046
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 0147
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1523

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 000351 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EAP/MTS AARON FORSBERG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018 
TAGS: MARR PO TL PREL
SUBJECT: TIMOR LESTE: IN AFTERMATH OF ASSASSINATION 
ATTEMPTS, PORTUGAL CONSIDERS SENDING ADDITIONAL GENDARMES 
 
REF: DILI 0040 
 
LISBON 00000351  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Dep P/E Counselor Cari Enav for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
1.(SBU)Portugal is closely monitoring developments in its 
former colony of Timor Leste but has no immediate plans to 
send additional paramilitary troops to help stabilize the 
situation following the attempted assassination of President 
Jose Ramos Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao.  Although 
not responsible for security around the President,s home, 
Portuguese forces and emergency personnel arrived at the 
scene shortly after receiving a distress call, providing 
medical aid and transporting Ramos Horta to the Australian 
medical clinic.  Portugal remains concerned about the 
volatile security situation in Dili, noting that deep-rooted 
problems persist despite the fact that renegade military 
officer Alfredo Reinado is out of the picture.  Portuguese 
Ambassador to Canberra is in Darwin to demonstrate support 
for Timor Leste and concern for Ramos Horta. 
 
No Additional Forces for Now 
------------ 
¶2. (C) The Foreign Minister's Advisor for Asian Affairs, Rita 
Laranjinha, told post that Portugal is closely monitoring 
developments in Timor Leste and that its paramilitary forces 
stationed there, the Guardia Nacional da Republica (GNR), are 
sending regular updates on the security situation.  Portugal 
has no immediate plans to reinforce its 240 strong GNR 
presence, given the distance and the fact that Australia has 
already sent over 200 additional military and police 
personnel since the assassination attempt.  The government 
will carefully consider Timorese requests for such assistance 
when asked, probably within the next few days, as noted by 
visiting Timorese Parliament President Fernando Lamasa de 
Araujo to government officials on February 11.  Lamasa de 
Araujo, who was shocked by these events, according to 
Larinjinha, departed Lisbon for Dili on February 12.  In a 
separate February 11 conversation on the subject, Political 
Director Bramao Ramos told Ambassador Stephenson that he 
expected Timor Leste to ask for additional GNR forces shortly. 
 
¶3. (C) Note: During a January trip to Dili, Minister of 
Interior Rui Pereira told Timorese officials that GNR forces 
would remain in Timor Leste until the end of 2008 but would 
not make any long term commitments.  The government had been 
awaiting a February UN decision to extend the UNMIT mission 
before committing to a continued GNR presence, Laranjinha 
noted.  This UN decision will likely be postponed in light of 
the assassination attempt as Special UN Envoy Atul Kare has 
just left New York for Dili.  End Note. 
 
GNR ) First Responders to Ramos Horta Attack 
--------- 
¶4. (C) Laranjinha had no comment regarding the breach of 
security at Ramos Horta's compound, noting that the 
Australians and Timorese are responsible for security there. 
She did note, however, that immediately following the attack, 
the GNR and Portuguese emergency personnel received a 
distress call (it is unclear from whom) and arrived at the 
compound within five minutes, providing first aid to Ramos 
Horta and transporting him to the Australian clinic for 
medical care.  Laranjinha said that she had heard that Ramos 
Horta was expected to survive and would likely remain in the 
Darwin hospital for one month. The Portuguese were not 
involved in responding to the attempted assassination of 
Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, Laranjinha added. 
 
Political Situation Still Volatile 
----------- 
¶5. (C) Reinado clearly hoped to destabilize the government by 
assassinating Ramos Horta and Gusmao although he did not 
appear to have any clear follow-up plan, Laranjinha said, 
noting that Reinado had no infrastructure in place to take 
over.  The political balance of power remains quite volatile 
with deep-rooted problems continuing to plague the economy 
and efforts at national reconciliation.  Even with the 
"charismatic" Reinado out of the picture, many of his 
followers will likely continue to harbor strong resentment 
against the government, Laranjinha said.  Separately, 
Political Director Bramao Ramos expressed concern to 
Ambassador Stephenson regarding the response by Timorese 
 
LISBON 00000351  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
youth, fearing a worse reaction to the death of Reinado than 
if Ramos Horta or Gusmao had died.  Laranjinha commented that 
recent events may make it more difficult for Gusmao to reach 
agreement with opposition leader Mari Alkatiri on legislation 
to pardon past offenses, an idea Gusmao discussed with 
Portuguese Minister of Interior Pereira during his January 
visit to Dili. 
 
Portuguese Ambassador Expresses Support in Darwin 
-------- 
¶6. (C) In addition to the Portuguese heads of state and 
government roundly condemning the attacks, the Portuguese 
Ambassador to Canberra has traveled to Darwin to express 
support for the Timorese government and concern for the 
health of Ramos Horta.  He is in close communication with 
Timorese Foreign Minister de Costa -- who is also in Darwin 
-- and is relaying all developments back to Lisbon. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶7. (C) The former colony of Timor Leste holds a special place 
in the Portuguese psyche and is the largest recipient of 
Portuguese foreign assistance and gendarmerie stationed 
abroad.  A steady stream of visitors continues in both 
directions, with Defense Secretary of State Joao Mira Gomes 
traveling to Dili in December 2007 to sign the 2008-2010 
Framework Agreement for Technical Military Cooperation, 
Minister for the Interior Rui Pereira traveling in January to 
discuss the security situation, and a planned visit by 
Minister of Justice in February to review strengthening the 
judicial system.  In fact, at the time of the assassination 
attempts, Minister for Work and Social Security Jose Vieira 
da Silva was in Dili participating in a conference and 
Timorese Parliament President Fernando Lamasa de Araujo was 
in Lisbon meeting his counterparts.  Although the Portuguese 
government often comments that its capability to deploy 
forces worldwide are stretched thin due to budget and 
military capacity constraints, Laranjinha implied that 
Portugal would step up to the plate and provide additional 
forces to Timor Leste if asked. 
Stephenson