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FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9850
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000153 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SE WILLAMSON AND AF/SPG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2013 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL SU
SUBJECT: MINISTER OF PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS ON CHALLENGES TO 
ELECTIONS AND REFERENDUM 
 
 
Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  On January 30, Parliamentary Affairs 
Minister Joseph Okel told the Charge that the presence of 3 
million Southerners in the North and many former Popular 
Defense Force fighters in the South offer the NCP significant 
leverage to manipulate the outcome of the 2011 referendum on 
national unity as well as the 2009 national elections.  He 
complained that, in the South, the SPLM is resorting to 
tactics similar to those of the NCP in the North and that it 
has failed to reach out to smaller opposition parties, such 
as his own.  Okel also reviewed issues regarding several 
pieces of legislation key to holding free and fair elections 
in 2009.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) On January 30, Charge Fernandez called on GoS 
Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Joseph Okel.  Okel is a 
member of the Government of National Unity (GNU) from the 
South and is the leader of the United South African Party 
(USAP), a small regional party of South Sudan in favor of an 
independent South.  Okel commented that his USAP had 
participated in the negotiation of the Comprehensive Peace 
Agreement (CPA) and that he had returned to his home town of 
Wau to participate in the January 9 third-anniversary 
observations of the CPA signing.  Okel has won local office 
in Wau since 1977 where he has tribal roots. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
2009 Elections:  Major Challenges Remain 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Okel commented that &the idea of the 
transformation to democracy8 is &slow8 in Sudan.  CDA 
Fernandez responded that, while Southern Sudan has many 
problems, it also has tremendous promise.  The CDA asked 
whether Okel thought that the national elections scheduled 
for 2009 under the CPA would take place on time.   Minister 
Okel replied that many things must occur before elections can 
take place.  For example, the national census must be carried 
out and refugees must be repatriated to their home areas. 
 
------------------------------- ------------------------- 
2011 Referendum:  Big Opportunities for the NCP to Cheat 
------------------------------- ------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Turning to the planned 2011 referendum on Southern 
Sudan independence, the Minister noted that approximately 3 
million southerners residing in the North offer the ruling 
National Congress Party (NCP) the opportunity to manipulate 
the referendum,s outcome by coercing them to vote against 
separation.  Alternatively, the NCP could simply falsify the 
votes of these Southerners living in the North.  Either 
option provides the NCP the opportunity to rig the referendum. 
 
¶5.  (C) Minister Okel noted still another potential avenue 
for the NCP to skew referendum results toward its own desired 
outcome:  the presence in the South of many former 
&mujahideen8 from the North who remain in the South 
following the civil war (or who are back in Khartoum and can 
go back to vote as pretend "southerners".  The Minister said 
that legislation on the referendum still has yet to be 
drafted and the NCP would certainly try to manipulate it to 
enable them to interfere as much as possible.  If the law 
when adopted requires only a six-month residency for voters 
in the South to participate in the referendum, these 
Northerners (and NCP loyalists) and other Northerners who 
might move South between now and 2011 would be able to vote 
against the South,s secession. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
SPLM:  Copying from the NCP,s Play Book 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Turning to the situation in the South, Okel commented 
that the opposition Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) 
is unfortunately doing what the NCP is doing in the North, 
noting that when he travels through the South to meet with 
members of his own party, local authorities ask whether he 
has received &approval from Juba8 to do so.  CDA agreed, 
noting that the SPLM means well, but it thinks like the NCP 
as a defensive mechanism.  The SPLM believes it is engaged in 
a conflict with a mortal enemy in the North.  Therefore, it 
believes the South must be united or it will be destroyed by 
the NCP and so is trying to impose such unity.  The SPLM must 
learn to be democratic and ¬ recreate Khartoum in Juba.8 
 
¶7.  (C) The Minister remarked that the SPLM is not serious 
about cooperating with other political parties in creating a 
united front to oppose the NCP.  He said that intra-party 
 
KHARTOUM 00000153  002 OF 003 
 
 
committees created under John Garang have been allowed to 
collapse.  CDA Fernandez said that the United States has been 
telling the SPLM that the South must be unified, but that 
this unity must be voluntary, it cannot be forced and that 
the SPLM also needed to reach out to other marginalized 
people in the North and Darfur.  The United States must now 
reinforce this message:  do not become like the NCP, you can 
be so much better. 
 
--------------------- 
Party Law Constraints 
--------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Okel said that political parties, under Sudan,s 
Party Law, are required to register.  While the SPLM has not 
yet registered, it must do so when it holds its party 
convention.  The CDA noted that the Umma Party also has not 
yet registered.  Okel stated that under the Law, parties must 
have a minimum number of members and a minimum amount of 
funds in order to register.  These requirements will hobble 
some of the smaller parties.  The Charge commented that both 
the NCP and, to a lesser extent, the SPLM, have access to 
government funding and to the media.  This is a tremendous 
advantage for both.  At the same time, the GNU has banned 
political parties from receiving support from abroad. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Building a National Alliance of Democratic Parties 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶9.  (C) Returning to the issue of intra-party cooperation, 
Minister Okel complained that the National Democratic 
Alliance (NDA), which used to be led by the SPLM has become 
defunct.  Okel said that following the Comprehensive Peace 
Agreement, the democratic parties agreed to elect a new NDA 
Committee, but that this never happened.  A functioning NDA 
would allow regional parties (such as Okel,s USAP) from both 
the North and South to cooperate with the SPLM to form a 
united, national front to combat the NCP.  The Charge agreed 
that another weakness of the SPLM is that it turns to the 
other opposition parties only in times of crisis.  It needs 
to do this before hand, to have the bridges built and ready 
when they are needed. Both agreed that there is an urgent 
need to enhance international support for pro-democracy 
parties in Sudan with very little time to do so. 
 
-------------------- 
-------------------------------------------- 
Key Legislation:  Parliamentary Law, Elections Law, Security 
Law 
--------------------- 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Asked about the status of the Parliamentary Law, the 
Minister said that the draft had been submitted to the 
Council of Ministers, but then withdrawn on the initiative of 
the Interior Minister.  As drafted, the law assigns 
operational authority over police in the capital to the 
governor of Khartoum, with the role of the Interior Ministry 
restricted to training and other support.  The Interior 
Minister wants to retain his current direct control of the 
capital,s police force and the ability to use it for 
partisan ends.  The law is now in limbo. 
 
¶11.  (C) CDA asked Okel to explain the controversy over 
percentages of parliamentary representation in the draft 
Elections Law.  Okel said that the NCP is advocating for 60% 
of members of parliament to be elected on the basis of direct 
representation (or "first-past-the-post"). The remaining 40% 
of candidates, to include 25% of women that must be elected, 
will be elected via proportional representation.  The SPLM, 
allied with 12 other political parties (including Umma, DUP, 
NDA, Communist, and others), is fighting for a system whereby 
50% of parliamentary candidates are selected in a 
first-past-the-post system and 50% (including the 25% of 
women to be elected) are elected via proportional 
representation. 
 
¶12.  (C) Okel remarked that adopting a new Security Law is a 
key prerequisite to free and fair elections, but that a new 
law has yet to be drafted, let alone submitted to parliament. 
 The CDA commented that until a new law is passed, the old 
Security Law remains in effect, which provides free rein to 
action by the security services. No new press law, also a 
prerequisite for elections, has been drafted either. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
KHARTOUM 00000153  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶13.  (C) The elderly but knowledgeable Minister Okel proved 
to be a lively and well-informed interlocutor on key issues 
regarding the elections and the referendum.  This is the 
first time we have heard the suggestion that the NCP might 
strong-arm or otherwise manipulate the referendum votes of 
the Southerners living north of the 1-1-56 border or seek to 
infiltrate NCP loyalists into the South.  However, both of 
these strike us as real possibilities that will bear close 
watching as the referendum approaches. 
FERNANDEZ