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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 003118 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM 
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2032 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM CH HK
SUBJECT: MIXED REACTION TO NPCSC DECISION ON HONG KONG 
DEMOCRATIZATION 
 
REF: A. HONG KONG 03103 
     ¶B. BEIJING 07656 
 
Classified By: E/P Acting Chief Jeff Zaiser; Reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Hong Kong's pan-democratic parties reacted 
with disappointment and frustration to the December 29 PRC 
National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) 
decision to defer universal suffrage for the Hong Kong Chief 
Executive (CE) until 2017, and for the Legislative Council 
(Legco) sometime thereafter (refs).  The democrats are 
concerned that the "very skillful" NPCSC decision had placed 
them in a "very difficult situation" with regard to Hong Kong 
public opinion, as Beijing might have offered enough hope for 
progress to placate most Hong Kong voters.  Also, the 
democrats remain suspicious that details not included in the 
proposal, particularly regarding the Legco functional 
constituency (FC) seats and a nomination process for the CE 
election, could further delay or derail progress.  As 
expected, Hong Kong's pro-establishment political parties 
welcomed the decision, as did several leading businessmen. 
Political commentator and NPC delegate Allen Lee told us the 
decision had been a difficult one for Beijing, as it needed 
to consider the possible reactions from within China, from 
Hong Kong, and from foreign countries.  In particular, Lee 
said the potential effect of a more restrictive decision on 
the September 2008 Legco election in Hong Kong had been the 
most compelling factor.  Lee believes the key problem for 
political reform in Hong Kong continues to be that the 
pan-democrats "just don't trust Beijing," but he also thinks 
the NPCSC decision offers a "fair chance" for eventual 
universal suffrage.  End Summary. 
 
Democrats Frustrated, Suspicious 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Hong Kong's pan-democratic parties reacted with 
disappointment and frustration to the December 29 NPCSC 
decision to defer universal suffrage for the Hong Kong CE 
election until 2017, and for the Legco election sometime 
thereafter (refs).  In a public statement, the democrats 
specifically protested the NPCSC's rejection of universal 
suffrage for 2012 and its decision to maintain the existing 
balance between FC and geographical constituency (GC) Legco 
seats through at least the 2012 election.  They also were 
concerned that the central government in Beijing might have 
offered enough hope for progress to placate most Hong Kong 
voters, and suspicious that details unspecified in the 
proposal could further delay or derail progress.  Following a 
December 29 evening meeting with visiting NPCSC Deputy 
Secretary General Qiao Xiaoyang, Civic Party leader Audrey Eu 
 
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told the press that their discussion with Qiao had left the 
democrats even more disappointed, as Qiao had reaffirmed the 
need to retain the FCs. 
 
¶3. (C) On December 31, Civic Party Secretary General Joseph 
Cheng told us the pan-democrats were "not happy" with the 
NPCSC decision, which he described as a "very restrictive 
proposal" that "offers very vague blank checks on the distant 
future."  Beijing had excluded the possibility of meaningful 
reform in 2012, yet also demanded that if the democrats 
rejected the Hong Kong Government's (HKG) yet to-be-proposed 
marginal reforms for that year, then further reform for 2017 
would be taken off the table.  In other words, only if the 
2012 and 2017 stages proceeded to Beijing's satisfaction 
would 2020 could bring universal suffrage for Legco.  Cheng 
also said the pan-democrats suspected there would be multiple 
"pitfalls and traps" throughout the implementation process; 
for example, he said he and his colleagues remained 
suspicious that Beijing would want to retain some sort of 
"filtering process" for nomination of CE candidates, to 
prevent anyone unacceptable to the central government from 
even contesting the election.  He also noted "grave doubts" 
about whether and how the issue of the Legco FCs might be 
resolved. 
 
¶4. (C) Cheng said the NPCSC decision was "very skillful" and 
had placed the pan-democrats in a "very difficult situation" 
in the face of public opinion.  The Hong Kong people did not 
want confrontation, and Beijing already had given what 
appeared to be considerable ground to the pan-democrats and 
to popular demands.  Reflecting even longer frustration, 
Cheng described the proposal as "typical of the ploys adopted 
by the (British) colonial administration."   He concluded 
that Beijing remained in control of Hong Kong's 
democratization, which he said was "too important a process 
to be left to Hong Kong."  For that reason, Cheng believed 
 
HONG KONG 00003118  002 OF 002 
 
 
any chance for real change and democracy in Hong Kong would 
depend on future reform in mainland China. 
 
HKG, Pro-Government Parties Welcome NPCSC Decision 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶5. (SBU) As noted in ref a, Hong Kong CE Donald Tsang warmly 
welcomed the NPCSC decision, describing it as an important 
step in Hong Kong's political development and future.  While 
calling for compromise and consensus from all sectors of the 
community, Tsang also warned that conflicts and threats of 
strife could only stall Hong Kong's political process. 
Similarly, Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and 
Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) Chairman Tam Yiu-chung spoke 
highly of the decision, saying it was a realistic assessment 
of Hong Kong's situation.  Liberal Party Chairman James Tien 
said he was delighted that a timetable for implementation of 
universal suffrage had been set, and he urged the 
pan-democrats to cooperate to forge a consensus for universal 
suffrage in 2017.  The press also quoted several business 
leaders who said the decision responded to people's demands. 
 
Difficult Decision for Beijing 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) On December 31, political commentator and NPC delegate 
Allen Lee gave us a generally positive and optimistic view of 
the NPCSC decision, which he believed had been a very 
difficult one for Beijing.  The central government had needed 
to consider the possible reactions from within China, from 
Hong Kong, and from foreign countries.  In particular, Lee 
said the potential effect of a more restrictive decision on 
the September 2008 Legco election in Hong Kong had been the 
most compelling factor.  Had Beijing taken a tougher line, 
Lee believed the pro-government parties in Hong Kong would 
have "lost badly" in that election. 
 
¶7. (C) According to Lee, the key problem for political reform 
is that the pan-democrats "just don't trust Beijing."  If 
they somehow could find a way to work with both the central 
government and the HKG, however, Lee believed there was a 
"fair chance" that the NPCSC decision eventually could lead 
to universal suffrage.  He said he had been discussing ways 
forward during the past few days with Democratic Party leader 
Martin Lee, who he believed was amenable to some of his 
suggestions.  First, for the 2017 CE election, Allen Lee said 
the democrats were concerned primarily about the 
nominating/screening committee.  He noted (and reminded 
Martin), however, that nominations for Hong Kong's first CE 
election in 1997, won by C.H. Tung, had been held through 
secret ballot; if that safeguard could be revived, then he 
 
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and Martin agreed that the democrats would become more 
comfortable with the principle of a nominating commission. 
 
¶8. (C) Second, for the Legco election process, Lee said the 
key issue was the FCs, which he also had been discussing with 
both Martin Lee and Liberal Party leader James Tien (whose 
party holds eight FC seats).  (Note: Underscoring the 
importance of these Legco seats, Deputy Director Zhang 
Xiaoming of the State Council's Hong Kong and Macau Affairs 
Office told participants in RTHK's "City Forum" on December 
29 that the FCs were very valuable and needed to be retained 
to ensure stability and balanced representation.)  According 
to Allen Lee, Martin had expected further reform of the FCs 
for 2012, and his negative public reaction to the NPCSC 
decision stemmed partly from its exclusion of significant FC 
reform until after 2017.  Allen said Martin appeared to agree 
that partial democratization of the FC election process, so 
that FC members could nominate multiple candidates for 
election by universal suffrage, would be acceptable, but that 
Martin would not publicly agree to that strategy at this 
time.  Eventually, however, Allen believes that Martin would 
accept something similar, as long as it included some form of 
one person-one vote process for the FCs. 
 
Public Opinion Poll 
------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) A poll by the "Ming Pao" newspaper on December 29 
found that 46.5 percent of respondents were satisfied with 
the NPCSC decision to elect the CE by universal suffrage in 
2017, compared to 33.2 percent who were not.  For the Legco 
election, 40 percent said universal suffrage in 2020 was "too 
late," while 37 percent found that timing suitable. 
Cunningham