VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0004/01 0021007
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021007Z JAN 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7708
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7608
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8879

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000004 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, HONG KONG DEMOCRACY 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused January 
1-2 news coverage on the island-wide celebrations for the New Year; 
on President Chen Shui-bian's New Year's address; on the upcoming 
legislative elections; and on the Blue camp's call on the voters to 
boycott the two referenda to be held alongside the January 
legislative elections by refusing to collect the referenda ballots. 
 
¶2.  In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the 
centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" discussed the decline of the 
United States and the future prospects for Taipei-Washington 
relations.  Editorials in two English-language papers discussed a 
recent declaration by Beijing that the Hong Kong people may be 
allowed to directly elect their chief executive by 2017 and 
lawmakers by 2020.  An editorial in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" said "the last thing Beijing wants 
is to open the Pandora's box of democracy" for the Hong Kong people. 
 An editorial in the conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" said "Hong Kong would be a testing ground for political 
reform on the mainland if the introduction of universal suffrage 
works smoothly there."  End summary. 
 
¶3. U.S.-Taiwan Relations 
 
"The Decline of the United States and Taiwan-U.S. Relations" 
 
Barry Chen, visiting professor at the Beijing Union University's 
Institute of Taiwan Studies, opined in the centrist, KMT-leaning 
"China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (1/1): 
 
"... During the past few years when the United States was moving 
downhill [i.e., in terms of its influence on the world], Taiwan, 
with its on-going campaign for nativism, has only focused on 
political infighting on the island but failed to pay attention to 
global issues and the changes in the world.  The most unbelievable 
trend is that Taiwan has even started to challenge U.S. national 
interests, which are most essential for Taiwan. ... 
 
"Perhaps new opportunities and situations will appear in Taiwan if 
this year's presidential election can be held smoothly.  But after 
the 'eight lost years [under the DPP's rule],' the new leader will 
have to face three major problems:  first, how to mend 
Washington-Taipei relations and restore mutual trust between the 
two; second, how to manage the phenomenon in which both sides of the 
Taiwan Strait are cold in terms of politics but hot in terms of 
economic exchange; and third, how to stop the deviation in Taiwan's 
democratic development and return to normal democratic operations. 
... 
 
¶4. Hong Kong Democracy 
 
A) "Hong Kong's Long Wait Continues" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (1/1): 
 
"... The last thing Beijing wants is to open the Pandora's box of 
democracy, as yielding in Hong Kong would surely lead to demands 
from other provinces that, left unchecked, could spread across the 
country. Beijing is terrified of democracy because it knows that it 
is the one tool, short of civil war, that can threaten its hold on 
power.  The remark on Saturday, with Chief Executive Donald Tsang 
waxing triumphantly, was probably meant to appease pro-democracy 
groups in Hong Kong, whose position was bolstered by former top 
official Anson Chan's win in the legislative elections last month. 
This is the upside: Give democrats a little space, wiggle a carrot 
and hope that this calms the masses. But the downside is that the 
stick is near, always at the ready. 
 
"It would be pure foolishness to take Beijing's declaration at face 
value, which, sadly, is what many in the international community 
will likely do. This is yet another sign, we can hear them saying, 
that Beijing is becoming more "normal" and playing by rules 
befitting a state that is integrating itself in the global scheme of 
things. ...  Democracy will remain just too dangerous a gift for the 
Chinese government to bestow upon its people." 
 
B) "Hong Kong Democracy Delayed" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (1/1): 
 
" ... Known for its skepticism towards free, democratic elections, 
Beijing is the only stumbling block to Hong Kong's democracy. Its 
doubts have become a convenient excuse for allies in Hong Kong to 
stick to their conservative viewpoints in order not to frighten the 
'central authorities.' Their fears have in turn reinforced Beijing's 
arguments.  This cycle of skepticism has aggravated a feeling of 
distrust and cynicism among the democrats and in some quarters of 
society about the promise of the ultimate goal -- universal 
 
suffrage.  Hong Kong would be a testing ground for political reform 
on the mainland if the introduction of universal suffrage works 
smoothly there. ..." 
 
YOUNG