VZCZCXRO7865
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHLH #0733/01 3441443
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O P 101443Z DEC 07
FM AMCONSUL LAHORE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3542
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 0015
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0065
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0218
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0569
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 1765
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 1455
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 4515
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 4143

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAHORE 000733 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  12/10/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR PINR AMGT PK
SUBJECT: IT'S OFFICIAL--THE PML-N WILL COMPETE IN ELECTIONS 
 
REF: (A) Lahore 715 (B) Lahore 722 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Michael T. Jordan, Acting Principal Officer, 
AMCONSUL Lahore, STATE. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1. (S) On December 9 in Lahore the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz 
(PML-N) announced it will participate in upcoming elections in 
the wake of the failure of the All Parties Democratic Movement 
(APDM) to reach a consensus on whether or not to boycott the 
upcoming legislative elections.  According to Rana Mashhood 
Ahmad Khan, a close confidant of Nawaz Sharif, the PML-N senior 
leadership felt it could not leave the field wide open to the 
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), PML-Q and JUI-F to take a 
two-thirds majority of seats which would allow them to 
constitutionally ratify the Provisional Constitutional Order 
(PCO) and other measures done under the state of emergency.  In 
addition, Khan stated the election may actually be reasonably 
free and fair by Pakistani standards thanks to international 
pressure and efforts from the West, Saudi Arabia and even Chief 
of Army Staff Kayani.  Finally he stated that Nawaz Sharif 
acknowledged the essential role the USG played in pressuring 
President Musharraf to step down as Army Chief and did not plan 
to play the anti-US card in his electoral campaign.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (C) At Nawaz Sharif's Model Town residence in Lahore 
yesterday, the All Parties Democratic Movement, a conglomeration 
of political and religious parties, failed to reach a consensus 
on whether to boycott elections scheduled for January 8.  The 
key sticking point was the demand for President Musharraf to 
reinstate the pre-November 2 judiciary, a move all political 
commentators felt was extremely unlikely.  In the end, the party 
leaders decided each party was free to make its own decision on 
whether to boycott.  According to Rana Mashhood Ahmad Khan, a 
former member of the Punjab Provincial Assembly and close 
confidant of Nawaz Sharif, the senior leadership of the PML-N 
decided to compete to prevent the PML-Q, PPP and JUI-F from 
garnering a two-thirds majority of seats in the next National 
Assembly that would enable them to ratify the PCO and other 
measures enacted under the state of emergency.  In addition, the 
party leadership felt it had no obligation to maintain APDM 
unity for an inflexible Imran Khan from the Tehreek-i-Insaaf 
(PTI) party since it only had one seat in the prior assembly or 
to Qazi Hussain Ahmad of the Jamaat-i-Islami party since the 
majority of its seats were won in 2002 with support from the 
PML-N and his support several years ago limiting Prime Ministers 
to only two terms.  Khan predicted both of those parties will in 
fact boycott primarily to save face in the certainty of poor 
electoral performances. 
 
¶3. (C) According to Khan, Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif did give 
serious consideration to boycotting after both of their 
nomination papers were rejected.  Their strategy is to now 
campaign for their party to get out the vote for their 
candidates.  They will also emphasize that they have nothing to 
gain personally since neither is a candidate and are doing this 
for the future of Pakistan.  On the other hand, Khan admitted 
that Shahbaz and/or Nawaz may run in a by-election next year for 
any seats vacated by a PML-N candidate who wins multiple seats. 
Khan also stated that the Sharif brothers believe the elections 
may end up being reasonably free and fair by Pakistani standards 
owing to international pressure from the West, Saudi Arabia and 
Chief of Army Staff Kayani.  Khan claimed the Saudis are 
applying enough pressure to Musharraf to ensure that the PML-N 
has a level playing field.  He also said that the Sharif 
brothers recognized and appreciated the USG role in pressuring 
Musharraf to doff his uniform.  He said that the PML-N does not 
plan to play the anti-American card in the upcoming campaign. 
 
¶4. (S) According to Khan, he is acting as an intermediary on top 
secret issues between Military Intelligence (MI) and the Sharif 
 
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brothers between Kayani and them.  He stated that Kayani is 
disappointed that Musharraf did not move out of the Chief of 
Army Staff's residence in Rawalpindi after resigning from the 
Army and had it declared a Presidential residence.  He also 
claimed that Kayani prefers Nawaz over Benazir Bhutto or likely 
PML-Q Prime Ministerial candidate Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and 
that a plan is in the works for Nawaz and Kayani to publicly 
meet next week that will in fact be a tacit endorsement. 
(Note-this is the first we have heard of this and we have no 
other source that confirmed this plan.  End note) 
 
¶5. (C) In other matters, Khan said that the Sharif brothers 
would still prefer to have elections postponed by one or two 
months to better prepare for them.  He predicted in that case 
the PML-N could win a majority of seats in the Punjab Provincial 
 
LAHORE 00000733  002 OF 002 
 
 
Assembly as well as the National Assembly.  As things stand now, 
he predicts there will be a hung parliament with the PML-N 
winning with a slight plurality.  On reconciliation with the 
PML-Q, he stated that the Sharif brothers will not reconcile 
with Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain or his cousin Pervaiz Elahi but 
that negotiations are underway with many PML-Q candidates to 
convince them to jump ship to the PML-N. 
 
¶6. (S) Comment: PML-N leadership determined that it had a lot to 
lose by sitting out these elections.  Notably, they are 
confident that elections will be reasonably free and fair thanks 
to international pressure.  In addition, it is a positive sign 
that they see democratic elections as the best means to 
redressing their concerns rather than taking to the streets. 
End comment. 
 
¶7. (U) Embassy Islamabad cleared on this cable. 
JORDAN