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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002271 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM VE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN UPDATE-NOVEMBER 29-30 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 2262 
 
     ¶B. CARACAS 2258 
     ¶C. CARACAS 2254 
     ¶D. CARACAS 2245 
 
CARACAS 00002271  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES FOR 1.4 (B) and (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Following the November 29 final, 
substantial rally of the "No" camp, President Chavez canceled 
a planned visit to Ecuador.  Instead, he prepared for his 
final "Yes" campaign speech on November 30 rally, while his 
Zamora Command alleged domestic conspiracies to reject a 
"Yes" victory.  Chavez predicted victory in the December 2 
referendum and told the massive "Yes" rally that "A 'Yes' 
vote is a vote for Chavez, and a 'No' vote is a vote for 
George W. Bush.  The National Election Commission (CNE) is 
finalizing voting stations.  A limited number of foreign 
missions are preparing to observe the polls.  Although 
opposition leaders believe they can defeat the reforms, they 
say they are prepared to accept defeat in a transparent 
election, but will challenge a fraudulent vote.  There is, 
however, no consensus about who will speak  for the 
opposition after the election.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------- 
"Yes" Supporters Close Campaign 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Red banners, shirts and hats blanketed Avenida 
Bolivar during the late afternoon closing rally of the "Yes" 
campaign on November 30.  Poloffs observing from one of the 
gathering points saw many more busses than they had the day 
before for the "No" rally.  Emboffs confirmed numerous 
reports of government employees being required to attend the 
"Yes" rally.  Some of the participants' shirts indicated that 
beneficiaries of various social missions also attended. 
President Chavez addressed the rally of well over 100,000 
persons in what appeared to be an even bigger gathering than 
the "No" rally in the same place the day before. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Chavez started his speech by embracing his infant 
grandson and leading the crowd in the national anthem. 
Chavez framed the upcoming referendum as a battle against the 
United States ("the empire") and "its lackeys in Venezuela." 
He bellowed, "A 'Yes' vote is a vote for Chavez and a 'No' 
vote is a vote for George W. Bush.  That's the real fight." 
Chavez predicted the "Yes" camp would deliver a "knockout to 
American imperialism."  He also told the crowd that 
Venezuelan intelligence agencies foiled an attempt to 
assassinate him at the closing "Yes" rally. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Chavez is Saving Himself For the Next Fight 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Comando Zamora director and Telecommunication 
Minister Jesse Chacon announced that the "Yes" camp would 
respect the official results of the National Electoral 
Council (CNE) and, making an indirect jab at opposition mayor 
Henrique Capriles Radonski, added that none of the "No" block 
members had made a similar pledge.  Chacon pledged that the 
state would maintain order and would not permit another April 
11, (the day in 2002 when Chavez was temporarily removed from 
office).  In that same press conference, Chacon declared to 
have video proof of a plot by opposition Mayor Leopoldo Lopez 
and political commentator Alejandro Pena Esclusa to unleash a 
chain of violent protests against a "Yes" win. 
 
----------------------- 
Opposition Preparations 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Primero Justicia (PJ) Secretary General Carlos 
Ocariz told Poloff November 30 that the opposition is 
preparing for three referendum scenarios: a narrow 'Yes' 
victory, a narrow 'No' victory, and government fraud to 
achieve a substantial 'Yes' victory.  He said his party 
would not do exit polling (lack of time and resources), but 
would do a 'quick count' of over 300 representative polling 
stations to gauge the validity of the official results.  The 
combined opposition is also running another separate, but 
less sophisticated 'quick count' of 122 polling stations. 
Ocariz said opposition parties are still trying to decide who 
will speak for them after the CNE releases its results, 
adding that it will not be unsuccessful 2006 presidential 
candidate Manuel Rosales.  He said the opposition would 
recognize a transparent 'Yes' victory, but may not 
 
CARACAS 00002271  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
recognize the constitutional reforms as legitimate.  The 
opposition parties are considering organizing a 
post-referendum signature campaign to try to convoke a new 
constitutional convention as a way to keep the opposition 
united and continue to fight Chavez' sweeping constitutional 
reforms. 
 
¶6.  (C) Baruta Mayor Henrique Capriles Radonski told PolCouns 
November 30 that he was confident of a 'No' victory, but 
also said the opposition would even accept defeat if the 
margin was small and the election was transparent.  As a 
result of the November 29 march, Capriles thought enough 
voters would participate, but the key would be ensuring that 
opposition witnesses were present at all voting tables, a 
project he said the opposition was still working on. 
Capriles thought there was a possibility for systematic 
low-level violence as a nervous BRV would seek to intimidate 
voters to guarantee victory.  He also expected the government 
to try to control the media and shut down 
opposition-affiliated news channel Globovision at the first 
sign of any reports predicting a Chavez defeat. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Electoral NGO Skeptical of "Yes" Prospects 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (C) Separately, Sumate,s Roberto Abdul told Poloff 
November 30 that he was pessimistic about the prospects of a 
'No' victory.  In addition to not providing enough 
witnesses for the polls, he thought the opposition still had 
not convinced voters that Chavez could be defeated.  As most 
people like to side with a perceived winner, he predicted 
turn out would either be lower than expected or more people, 
though in disagreement with the reform, would vote Yes. Abdul 
said Sumate would do a quick count as well.  He thought the 
prospect for violence would depend on how the opposition 
responded to a loss and political leaders, ability to rally 
their followers. 
 
------------------ 
Baduel Still Vocal 
------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Former Defense Minister and "No" vote campaigner 
Raul Baduel called on the military high command not to 
tarnish the reputation of the institution by getting involved 
in politics.  He also reminded the Supreme Court of the 
"irreparable harm" these changes would cause "if allowed to 
pass." 
 
------------------------ 
Studies and Observations 
------------------------ 
 
¶9. (C) Embassy Caracas will field teams of election observers 
in Caracas and eight states.  The British, Canadian, French 
German, Austrian and Chilean missions will also send out 
observers around greater metropolitan Caracas.  The Norwegian 
embassy will be working with the Venezuelan electoral 
observation NGO "OJO Electoral."  Although schools, which are 
frequently polling stations, had been closed 48 hours 
earlier, the National Election Center (CNE) announced they 
would start installing the 33,614 electronic voting machines 
around the country on November 30.  The Ministry of Education 
has closed schools and universities through Tuesday, December 
¶04.  As it has done in the past the CNE announced they had 
invited judges and others experts from 38 countries as far 
reaching as Namibia and Finland to watch the election. 
Unlike previous elections, there will be no accredited 
observers from the European Union and the OAS.   The 
opposition is hosting 20 parliamentarians from Europe and 
Latin America. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  The European Commission released a statement 
stressing that constitutional reforms "should reinforce 
democracy and the rule of law."  The communiqueQ goes on to 
point out that a constitution should be based on broad 
popular consensus reflecting the plurality and diversity of a 
nation. 
 
--------------------- 
Fractures in Chavismo 
--------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) National Secretary Rafael Uzcategui of Patria Para 
Todos (PPT), a pro-government party, predicts a loud and 
intense internal debate following the December 2 vote.  He 
 
CARACAS 00002271  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
explained that there is a large philosophical divide between 
Chavez' United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and the 
PPT which seeks to maintain its independent status.  He 
believes the first debate would be about socialism and the 
danger of sectarianism and authoritarianism which have 
plagued other revolutions. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The PSUV mayor of Samuel Dario Maldonado, in 
Tachira state,  denounced the constitutional reform as a 
"trick" that would not "better the lives of the people." 
While declaring he still supports President Chavez, he said 
he was leaving the PSUV, not wanting to be part of "a party 
that only has one way of thinking." 
 
----------- 
CNE Vs CNN 
----------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Calling the CNN mix-up of an image of Chavez and 
the caption "Who killed him?" an act against the peace and 
stability of Venezuela, Reporters For the Truth, a pro-Chavez 
Venezuelan NGO, filed a motion asking the National Election 
Center not to permit any CNN correspondents to cover the vote. 
 
DUDDY