VZCZCXYZ0040
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTC #2018/01 3321043
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 281043Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0747
INFO RUCNOSC/OSCE POST COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 002018 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/RPM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2017 
TAGS: POSCE PREK PGOV PHUM NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/OSCE: MADRID MINISTERIAL, MD/CFE 
PROPOSALS 
 
REF: A. STATE 157672 
 
     ¶B. STATE 159773 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Schofer, reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1. (C//NOFORN) Summary:  The GONL does not "expect much" from 
the upcoming OSCE Madrid ministerial, given too many issues 
pitting Russia against Europe and the United States, such as 
Kosovo, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, 
and missile defense.  MFA OSCE Special Advisor Tony van der 
Togt said the GONL was highly skeptical that the proposed 
Steinmeier-Moratinos CFE brainstorming session prior to the 
ministerial would achieve its desired outcome.  Likewise, van 
der Togt was skeptical of any CFE-related breakthroughs at 
the ministerial, and noted that the anticipated Russian 
moratorium on CFE actions would "not be the end of the world" 
-- that type of outlook only re-inforces Russia's position at 
the ministerial.  He said it was perhaps more important to 
engage with Russia following Madrid, and continue to push for 
a resolution on the Istanbul Commitments and the Adapted CFE 
Treaty.  With the exception of a possible deal on the 
rotating chairmanship, van der Togt was not confident the 
ministerial would achieve much in terms of substance or 
deliverables.  Van der Togt discussed these issues with 
polmiloff on November 26.  End summary. 
 
Central Asia and Afghanistan 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Van der Togt agreed with Ref A points pertaining to 
Central Asia, especially regarding the importance of 
strengthening customs and border security in the effort to 
increase stability in Afghanistan.  He agreed that Russian 
efforts to undermine the role of ODIHR negatively affect OSCE 
efforts in Central Asia.  While van der Togt supported our 
efforts to broaden the OSCE-Afghanistan/Central Asia 
relationship, he emphasized that any focused projects or 
training take place in Central Asia and not in Afghanistan. 
 
Balkans 
------- 
 
¶3. (C) Van der Togt agreed that continuing the OSCE mission 
in Kosovo was a top priority, but expressed concern over 
Russian and Serbian statements threatening to close the 
mission in the event of a unilateral declaration of 
independence by Kosovo.  Van der Togt agreed that other 
missions could be reduced in scope, but stressed that the 
GONL believes the mission in Croatia should at least remain 
open -- albeit substantially downsized -- to support local 
refugee and war criminal tribunals. 
 
CFE 
--- 
 
¶4. (C//NOFORN) Van der Togt said the GONL was highly 
skeptical that the proposed Steinmeier-Moratinos CFE 
brainstorming session would achieve its desired outcome -- 
"it is too late for any last second solutions," especially 
among 30 different representatives, van der Togt said.  He 
added, however, that "keeping dialogue open" was important, 
and that the Dutch would participate in the CFE pre-meeting 
provided NATO Allies meet first to pre-coordinate.  Likewise, 
van der Togt was skeptical of any CFE-related breakthroughs 
at the ministerial, and noted that the anticipated Russian 
moratorium on CFE actions would "not be the end of the world" 
-- that type of outlook only re-inforces Russia's position at 
the ministerial.  He said it was perhaps more important to 
engage with Russia following Madrid, and continue to push for 
a resolution on the Istanbul Commitments and the Adapted CFE 
Treaty.  Given CFE difficulties, van der Togt noted that a 
ministerial statement simply "for the sake of having one" did 
not make much sense -- a statement should be based on 
substance, and van der Togt doubted any meaningful statement 
was possible given expected Russian opposition. 
 
Russian Proposals 
----------------- 
 
¶5. (C//NOFORN) Van der Togt said the GONL was very concerned 
about Russia's proposed OSCE reforms, including especially 
ODIHR's election monitoring practices.  He noted the EU 
counterproposal essentially challenges Russia's attempt to 
place ODIHR under the Permanent Council, and described 
Spain's attempts to reach a compromise between the two as 
"failing," especially as the latest Spanish rework gives 
Moscow "far too much authority over ODIHR."  Van der Togt 
said the GONL was alarmed by the other Russian proposal to 
regulate the participation of NGOs in OSCE meetings, but 
 
 
curious why Moscow had agreed to delay consideration of the 
proposal until after the ministerial.  Van der Togt wondered 
if Spain had agreed to be lenient on the ODIHR proposal 
provided Moscow agreed to delay consideration on the NGO 
proposal -- "how else to explain Spain's latest and very poor 
attempt at bridging the gap between the EU and Russia on 
ODIHR," he speculated. 
 
¶6. (C//NOFORN) Van der Togt described the timing of the OSCE 
decision not to send observers for the upcoming Russian 
parliamentary elections as "ill-advised."  No matter what the 
truth may be, van der Togt said ODIHR Director Strohal's 
announcement canceling the mission shortly after his return 
from Washington can only help Putin and fuel Russian 
conspiracy theories.  Van der Togt admitted that "hindsight 
is 20-20," but if the mission were to be canceled, it should 
have been done much earlier or later following the Washington 
visit.  At this point, van der Togt said, ODIHR needs to 
avoid further distraction on the Russian parliamentary 
elections and focus on the presidential elections next year. 
 
¶7. (C) Finally, van der Togt said the Dutch do not believe 
the OSCE requires a charter to address functioning or the 
principles of the organization.  But they are willing to 
discuss the charter in exchange for Russian agreement on the 
convention regarding privileges and immunities.  Van der Togt 
stressed that the Dutch in no way support the current Russian 
draft charter; "it clearly need substantial revision." 
Without at least a "pro-forma" discussion on the charter, 
however, van der Togt doubted Russia would agree to the 
convention on privileges and immunities. 
 
OSCE Chairmanship 
----------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Van der Togt noted that with the many issues -- 
Kosovo, CFE, missile defense -- currently dividing Russia, 
Europe, and the United States, the upcoming OSCE chairmanship 
rotation appears to be the only one that might be resolved at 
Madrid.  He expected Kazakhstan to take Spain's "face-saving" 
deal and accept the chairmanship in 2010 or 2011.  Van der 
Togt was curious if the USG, along with the UK, would join 
consensus -- "should one emerge" -- on granting the 
chairmanship to Kazakhstan for a date later than its stated 
goal of chairing the OSCE in 2009. 
 
CFE, MD Updates 
--------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Polmiloff passed Ref B points to van der Togt 
regarding latest USG proposals to Russia on Missile Defense 
(MD) and the CFE Treaty.  Van der Togt appreciated the 
points, noting the GONL will review them and return with any 
questions.  He also heard from the Dutch embassy in 
Washington that A/S Fried and U/S Rood would brief NATO 
Allies November 27 on MD; van der Togt said the briefing will 
be attended by Dutch embassy officials. 
Arnall