VZCZCXRO6171
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0066/01 3060808
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 020808Z NOV 07
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0094
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0086
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0033
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0035
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0096

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000066 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND EB/ESC/IEC 
DEPT FOR DS/IP/EAP 
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/PI-42 
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ENIV EPET ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUD FLOW UPDATE: POLITICS AND RIVER CURRENTS 
COMPETE; REQUEST FOR MONITORING EQUIPMENT 
 
REF: SURABAYA 64 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SURABAYA 00000066  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Sidoarjo mud flow continues to play both a 
symbolic and tangible role in East Java's political and economic 
life.  The beginning of the rainy season, the increasingly 
frequent breaches of existing earthen dams, the threats to vital 
infrastructure, the continuing distrust of the central 
government's  and Lapindo's willingness to resolve the 
situation, and the disruption of livelihoods have led to 
increased public and media outrage.  Thousands of residents 
blockaded the main road through Porong town demanding that the 
Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS) immediately halt 
channeling mud into the Porong River.  Local politicians hope to 
use this issue to their advantage in 2008 elections; while 
election officials worry that voter registration will be 
impossible given the wide-scale displacement of residents.  BPLS 
officials expressed concern to the Consulate that BPLS is unable 
to monitor properly subsidence at the site since much of the 
monitoring equipment has been transferred to monitor three 
active volcanoes. BPLS asked if perhaps the USG could help (Para 
8).  End Summary. 
 
Protesting Against BPLS Mitigation Efforts 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On October 31, an estimated 7,000 residents of Gempol 
sub-district blocked the main road through Porong town in an 
attempt to force BPLS to stop diverting mud into the Porong 
River.  According to press reports, the protestors claimed that 
BPLS had agreed to not only stop piping mud into the Porong, but 
also to return the river to its original condition within 10 
days.  In a meeting with Surabaya PolEcon officer the same day, 
BPLS officials Soffian Hadi and Handoko Teguh expressed doubt 
about the accuracy of these media reports.  Soffian said that 
BPLS chairman former General Sunarso had instructed BPLS staff 
not to issue any statements regarding the protestor's demands. 
Just last week, President Yudhoyono reportedly endorsed the 
decision to continue diverting mud into the Porong (reftel). 
 
¶3. (SBU) Soffian told us that the popular misperceptions that 
mud will not be carried out to sea via the Porong River and that 
heavy flooding was imminent were exaggerated.  On the contrary, 
BPLS is confident, based on scientific observation, that the mud 
can be flushed away, albeit slowly, once the river's flow rate 
increases.  Currently, the River's flow rate is still at 
dry-season levels.  BPLS found that the mud was washed 
downstream more quickly when a dam upstream was opened recently. 
 Soffian plans to meet with the Governor of East Java to request 
the Governor guarantee the continuation of BPLS's work in Porong 
as it is often disrupted by demonstrations, complicating and 
even preventing mitigation efforts.  BPLS will also request the 
government take responsibility for negotiating with the 
demonstrators and local residents since BPLS does not have the 
authority to do so. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  On November 2, Soffian confirmed to the Consulate 
that, in response to recent demonstrations, BPLS was limiting 
its pumping of mud into the Porong to times when the river 
current was strongest.  He explained that at 2330 November 1 and 
0300 November 2, BPLS had quietly pumped mud into the river when 
BPLS staff saw the river current increase following locally 
heavy rains.  He added that BPLS had invited local villagers to 
witness that the mud was being flushed downstream by the 
current, and none had objected.  Soffian noted that BPLS was not 
currently pumping mud into the river (the afternoon of November 
2), but would resume when the current strengthens. 
 
All Politics Are Local 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Soffian suggested that the protestors were being used 
by local politicians to advance political agendas.  He explained 
that the Regent of Pasuruan, for example, plans to use issues 
surrounding the mud as part of his campaign platform during the 
2008 elections.  Politicizing matters further, Lapindo is 
obligated by presidential decree to complete compensation 
payments to victims by May 2008, just before the anticipated 
July 2008 gubernatorial election. The Chairman of the East Java 
election commission told PolEcon Officer in a separate meeting 
that the mud flow has made it difficult to register voters in 
 
SURABAYA 00000066  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
the Porong area since all of the local offices at the village 
and sub-district (kecamatan) level have disappeared.  In 
addition, most of the victims are now scattered in temporary 
housing throughout the region and as far away as Sulawesi.  The 
Election Commission estimates 45,000 voters have been displaced, 
excluding victims forced out of their homes in the past month. 
 
Fish Are Dying, Might As Well Turn a Profit 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6. (U) On November 2, local media reported that a large number 
of dead fish were floating just upstream from the area where 
BPLS was diverting mud into the Porong River.  According to 
local media reports, the Sidoarjo District Commission for the 
Environment explained that pollution levels were rising as 
pollutants built up in the stretch of river immediately upstream 
from where the mud entered, thus killing the fish. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Syaiful Illah, Deputy Regent of Sidoarjo and a member 
of the Sidoarjo Fish Pond Association, suggested to local media 
outlets that the mud could be channeled into neighboring 
aquaculture ponds instead of the river.  These aquaculture areas 
comprise a band separating the mud containment site from the 
Strait of Madura.  Any plan to use the ponds could create a 
conduit for the mud substantially wider than the channel 
provided by the Porong River.  Illah, himself an owner of fish 
ponds in the area, stands to gain if he can convince the 
government or Lapindo to compensate him for his land.  Japanese 
and European markets refuse to purchase seafood produced in the 
area due to fear of contamination. 
 
Competing Priorities: Volcano or Mud Flow 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  BPLS is having difficulty monitoring the level of 
subsidence at the mud flow site and in turn anticipating 
breaches in the earthen dams.  Soffian told us that many of the 
monitoring devices used previously have been transferred to 
monitor increased activity at three volcanoes: Mt. Kelud in East 
Java, Mt. Soputan in North Sulawesi, and Anak Krakatau.  While 
funds to purchase equipment has been earmarked in the BPLS 
budget, the central government has yet to disburse the funds and 
no timetable has been set.  Soffian asked if perhaps the USG 
would have equipment available in the meantime. 
MCCLELLAND