VZCZCXRO0629
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHYE #1247 2891317
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 161317Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6469
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA IMMEDIATE 1345
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 001247 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2017 
TAGS: PREL TK AM
SUBJECT: A DEEPLY SKEPTICAL KOCHARIAN AGREES TO HEAR OUT 
ANY CONCRETE TURKISH PROPOSAL 
 
Classified By: CDA R.V. Perina, reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  President Kocharian made clear to CDA his 
profound disbelief in Turkey's sincerity on rapprochement, 
but grudgingly agreed to hear out any Turkish proposal. 
Kocharian complained at length about past bad faith from 
Turkey, and said he considers talking with Turkey a lost 
cause for at least another generation.  Meanwhile, he said 
Armenia would make its own way as best it can.  The president 
has just four months left to his term, and we find him 
increasingly irascible on things he does not want to do.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (C) During the course of a previously-scheduled meeting on 
another subject, CDA spoke with President Kocharian October 
16 to persuade him that there may be a unique, short-term 
opportunity for Armenia fundamentally to change the dynamic 
of Armenia's relations with Turkey.  He said that the 
pressures created by the Armenian "genocide" resolution 
(AGR), combined with the new, more liberal and flexible 
presidency of Abdullah Gul, to create an opportunity that has 
not existed before to try to improve the relationship with 
Turkey and de-link the Turkish border issue from the 
Nagorno-Karabkh dispute.  He said that this opportunity would 
have to be seized in a package agreement before an AGR could 
be passed, because that would slam the door closed for a 
generation. 
 
¶3. (C)  Kocharian conveyed profound skepticism of Turkey's 
good faith.  He said that Armenia has heard such messages 
from U.S. Administrations since independence, but no 
discussions with Turkey had ever amounted to anything real 
for Armenia.  He said he did not doubt American intentions, 
but that many times in the past, Turkey has made much of a 
"new process" toward reconciliation.  Each time, he argued, 
Armenia had gone along, only to find that the Turkish 
proprosal had proved empty.  Armenia has "not one concrete 
thing to show" for its years of off and on negotiations with 
Turkey.  Kocharian said "You think this is the last 
opportunity for a generation.  I believe there is no 
opportunity at all for at least a generation.  Turkey is not 
ready, even at the level of society, to reach out to 
Armenia."  The proof of this, Kocharian said, is that Turkey 
is spending so much money to build the railroad to Azerbaijan 
via Akhalkalaki, bypassing Armenia.  There would be no point 
if Turkey were serious about opening the border with Armenia, 
which it could do any time it wished.  Dismissing signs of 
change in Turkey, Kocharian cited PM Erdogan's reported 
comment last week that the border with Armenia will remain 
closed until N-K is resolved. 
 
¶4. (C) At one point Kocharian said he was so disillusioned by 
years of Turkish bad faith that he really "did not give a 
damn anymore" about Turkey.  Kocharian said that Armenia has 
had to accept the reality that its Turkish border will be 
closed for the forseeable future. Even so, he said, Armenia 
is managing to thrive, citing the country's double-digit 
economic growth of recent years to bolster his point. 
Armenia has had to turn to Iran for transit access to the 
wider world, and Iran has proved a much easier partner to 
deal with. 
 
¶5. (C) Kocharian at first refused even to countenance the 
possibility of more GOAM meetings with Turkey, commenting 
that the tiniest steps by Armenia to meet Turkey halfway are 
instantly proclaimed by Turkey (and even by the U.S.), as 
evidence of a "process of rapprochement" that must not be 
disrupted.  Kocharian said he was unwilling to be used by the 
Turks in this way again.  After considerable prodding from 
the CDA, Kocharian agreed that he would not rule out opening 
quiet negotiations with Turkey, so long as these were kept 
out of the public eye, and did not become part of the 
campaign to derail an AGR. 
 
¶6.  (C) COMMENT:  Kocharian will not be persuaded to talk 
seriously with the GOT unless the opening bid comes from 
Ankara and involves a concrete incentive for Armenia, such as 
a near-term commitment to crack open the border, at least by 
opening the railroad line.  A historical commission is viewed 
as a Turkish ploy to take the "genocide" off the table and 
would be accepted by the Armenians only as part of a larger 
package.  Armenians profoundly mistrust Turkey's intentions, 
and hint they are skeptical about U.S. motives as well.  With 
just four months left in his term, Kocharian's irascible 
tendencies have only deepened, and he has less patience than 
ever for what he is convinced would be empty discussions. 
Kocharian in the end did not rule out a dialogue, but it is 
clearly up to the Turkish side to convince him that it would 
not be just another ploy to kill the AGR. 
PERINA