VZCZCXRO6460
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #1326/01 2441622
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 011622Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5288
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0370
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 001326 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (JOE TILGHMAN) 
INL (KBROWN) 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON ASEC CPAS SNAR KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: OPPOSITION LABOUR PARTY ON COURSE TO VICTORY IN 
SEPTEMBER 3 NATIONAL ELECTION? 
 
REF: KINGSTON 1288 (232000Z AUG 07) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) The passage of Hurricane Dean has failed to dampen the 
momentum of the Jamaica Labor Party (JLP), with Opposition Spokesman 
on Information Dwight Nelson predicting a landslide victory.  Nelson 
told EmbOff that the People's National Party (PNP)'s attempt to gain 
lost ground through hurricane related handouts will fail, as the die 
has been cast.  The JLP will be even more buoyed by latest opinion 
polls, which show the JLP moving ahead of the PNP.  A number of 
analysts also have predicted a win for the JLP, given its superior 
election campaign.  But despite the apparent odds, campaign member 
and former youth leader of the PNP Basil Waite maintains his Party 
will be returned to office.  While his position may reflect bias, no 
one should write off the PNP: the Party has a history of coming from 
behind to win.  End summary. 
 
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Hurricane Will Not Disrupt Victory 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.(SBU)  In the wake of Hurricane Dean, the Opposition Jamaica Labor 
Party (JLP) is certain it will reap electoral success when all the 
votes have been count on the evening of September 3.  This 
confidence initially was subdued, as the JLP worried about losing 
momentum if the election were postponed well beyond the original 
date of August 27.  In fact, Opposition Spokesman on Information 
Dwight Nelson told EmbOff that while the hurricane had not altered 
the standings, it had slowed his party's momentum.  He said that not 
even the PNP's attempts to use the hurricane relief efforts to score 
political points would work this time around, as people had come to 
expect this kind of response after a disaster.  "The whole element 
of surprise is therefore missing," Nelson continued.  The JLP 
spokesman claimed the die had been cast, and not much would change 
in the days leading up to the elections.  He said the JLP would 
spend the remaining days on the ground meeting with small groups and 
tightening its organization. 
 
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Perceived PNP Disunity and Polls Buoy JLP 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3.(SBU)  The JLP's confidence also has been boosted by reports of 
disunity in the senior ranks of the PNP.  Andrew Holness, Opposition 
Spokesman on Education, told EmbOff that one segment of the PNP, led 
by Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller (PSM), made a valiant 
attempt to have the election postponed long enough to make up lost 
ground.  He said PSM's efforts were only thwarted by the opposition 
of senior Cabinet members led by Omar Davies, Peter Phillips, and 
Maxine Henry-Wilson.  Holness said this is not surprising, given 
that, in addition to being battle worn and wanting to see an end to 
electioneering, this grouping of the intelligentsia traditionally 
has been opposed to PSM leading the party.  Additionally, the JLP is 
pleased with the 72.2 percent voter turnout by members of the 
security forces and election workers, who voted on August 28; it is 
not lost on the Opposition Party that a surge in voter turnout is an 
indication the ruling PNP is in trouble (Note: In the last four 
decades, no ruling party has won an election when voter turnout has 
exceeded 70 percent.  End Note.). 
 
4.(SBU)  The JLP will be even more buoyed by the results of the 
latest opinion polls, particularly the one conducted by newspaper 
and PNP internal pollster Bill Johnson.  While Johnson consistently 
has suggested that the momentum was with the JLP, his polls also 
consistently have shown the party lagging behind the PNP.  However, 
his latest results show the JLP surging ahead.  For the first time, 
his polls also show that Opposition Leader Bruce Golding has moved 
ahead of PSM as the person best suited to lead the country.  Another 
pollster reports a statistical dead heat, while yet another predicts 
a landslide victory for the JLP.  It is this poll which appears to 
resonate most with the JLP; of Jamaica's 60 parliamentary seats, 
Nelson's conservative estimate of the JLP's total has increased from 
34 a month ago to 40.  He said the poll results are no surprise, as 
the JLP is gaining traction among younger voters and formerly 
disenchanted JLP supporters.  As far as Holness is concerned, the 
PNP already has maximized support among its hard core, and will not 
get much more going forward. 
 
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Analysts Also Predicting JLP Win 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  But the single biggest boost for the JLP seems to be coming from 
 
KINGSTON 00001326  002 OF 002 
 
 
analysts, who think only a huge blunder can change the JLP's course 
to victory.  Many analysts are united in the view that the PNP has 
surrendered the election to the JLP because of its strategic 
mismanagement of the campaign.  The branding of the once popular PSM 
as the face of the PNP, and the ruling party's use of the "not 
changing course" slogan in the face of glaring problems such as high 
crime and unemployment and low growth, have been identified as 
fundamental errors.  Perceptions of disunity following the bitter 
internal elections 19 months ago have only served to exacerbate the 
challenges.  The bungling associated with the enactment of the state 
of emergency following the hurricane and the divisiveness 
surrounding the new date for the election also have been 
highlighted.  According to the analysts, the issue of incumbency, 
and the prospect of the PNP extending its time in office to 23 
years, is also a major militating factor. 
 
 
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But PNP Not Perturbed 
--------------------- 
 
¶6.  Yet the PNP does not appear to be disturbed, at least publicly, 
by the turn of events.  In fact, the Party has beefed up its 
advertising campaign in the last week, and now is matching or 
outstripping the JLP for media coverage.  Basil Waite, former PNP 
youth leader and current campaign organizer, told EmbOff that he is 
not perturbed by the apparent popularity of the JLP, and by all 
indications his Party will be returned to office on September 3. 
When asked about the polls, Waite said they had been monitoring the 
trends and he therefore had not been surprised that the JLP had 
moved ahead.  That said, he thought this would only give the JLP a 
psychological boost, for which the PNP had prepared.  However, 
Waite's position on the poll was not supported by campaign organizer 
Danny Roberts of the PNP affiliated National Workers Union. 
According to Roberts, Bill Johnson, the PNP internal pollster, lacks 
credibility because of his poor track record in Bahamas and St. 
Lucia.  Roberts said that the party has done 77 constituency polls, 
and the clear trend is a swing to the PNP.  He said the PNP was on 
track to recapture or surpass its 34 seats in Parliament.  He even 
downplayed the impact of the hurricane, despite admitting the slow 
pace of the relief effort. 
 
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Comment 
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7.(SBU)  From all indications, the JLP appears to be running a well 
organized and strategic campaign, based on a clear message of 
change.  This message appears to resonate with the electorate, and 
thus it is not surprising that the polls show younger voters, in 
particular, gravitating toward the JLP, putting it in the 
ascendancy.  Unlike previous campaigns, in this one the JLP also 
appears firmly united around its leader and, in a strange turn of 
events, the traditionally more united PNP shows signs of 
divisiveness.  Against this background, unless the JLP makes a huge 
blunder going forward, the momentum apparently will continue in its 
favor.  Nevertheless, with the PNP pumping up its election machinery 
and with hurricane relief efforts improving, only a brave soul would 
write off the PNP: the Party has a history of coming from behind at 
the last moment to win.  This time, the PNP's proverbial nine lives 
will be severely tested; no ruling party has been able to win a 
majority in any election following a hurricane. 
End Comment. 
 
HEG