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C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 001859 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR CVPR ASEC KDEM GT
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL OUTCOMES: WIN, LOSE, AND DRAW 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 1806 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James M. Derham for reasons 1.4 (b&d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1.  (C) As the dust settles from Guatemala's September 9 
national elections, clear winners and losers have emerged. 
For others, the outcome was ambiguous.  The greatest success 
was that of the process itself, which was less violent and 
better organized than anticipated.  Center-left Alvaro Colom 
of the UNE and center-right candidate Otto Perez Molina now 
advance to the second-round presidential election Nov. 4. 
Some believe Perez Molina may now be in the stronger 
position, although members of his team were disappointed with 
his second-place finish.  Back-bench parties GANA, CASA, and 
FRG took a greater share of the vote than anticipated, and a 
majority of their voters may gravitate toward the right.  The 
elections put paid to the domestic political aspirations of 
Nobel Prize winner Menchu, whose dismal performance 
substantiated the common observation that she "is more 
popular in Paris than in Guatemala."  The OAS Electoral 
Observation Mission performed well.  End Summary. 
 
Elections Winners 
----------------- 
¶2.  (U) The TSE and OAS.  The greatest success of Guatemala's 
September 9 elections was the process itself.  No observers 
anticipated that all 13,756 polling stations -- up from 8,885 
in the 2003 elections -- would open, yet that is what 
occurred.  The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), encouraged 
by the OAS and others in the international community, 
accelerated its schedule for delivery of voting materials to 
stay ahead of Hurricane Felix's winds and rain.  With the 
materials in place, Felix dissipated with little effect; some 
58% of voters turned out.  Only one person was killed in 
rioting on election day, and ballots burned at three 
locations.  OAS Mission Head Diego Garcia Sayan asserted to 
the diplomatic corps that these elections were "90% less 
violent" than those of 2003.  Garcia Sayan directly 
challenged international assertions that the campaign season 
had seen a spike in violence by stating that the level of 
pre-electoral violence was "similar to that which prevailed 
prior to the start of the campaigns, and was about the same 
as that which will prevail after Nov. 4." 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Despite a few working-level hiccups, the OAS 
Observer Mission's performance was generally excellent. 
Communiques issued on election day were concise, accurate, 
and encouraged calm, as did Garcia Sayan's several public 
appearances.  The OAS' quick count, which it reserved for 
internal use, was spot-on.  OAS observers gave nationwide 
coverage, and appropriately targeted likely trouble spots. 
Guatemala's much maligned police force also performed well on 
election day, defusing tensions and crowds by non-lethal 
means. 
 
¶4.  (C) Colom and the UNE.  Center-left candidate Alvaro 
Colom, of the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party, limped into 
the first round with an anemic performance in the August 30 
CNN debate and a major poll showing him tied with 
center-right challenger Otto Perez Molina of the Patriot 
Party (PP).  Nonetheless, Colom's stalwart rural base 
delivered him a nearly five-point lead over the former 
general.  UNE won 30.4% of the seats in Congress, more than 
any other party, and also won a plurality of mayoral races. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Back-benchers.  Polls predicted that the 
third-, fourth-, and fifth-place presidential contenders 
(GANA's Alejandro Giammattei with 17.2%, CASA's Eduardo Suger 
with 7.5%, and FRG's Luis Rabbe with 7.2%) would get a 
substantially smaller share of the vote than they in fact 
did.  The same trend held true for their congressional 
candidates, giving all three political muscle and bargaining 
power.  GANA will have the second-largest congressional 
bench, with 36 of the 158 seats.  Former de facto President 
Efrain Rios Montt's FRG will have 15 seats, down from 27 in 
the current Congress, and CASA will have five. 
 
¶6.  (U) Big City Mayors.  Popular Former President and Mayor 
of Guatemala City Alvaro Arzu (PU) won reelection, as did 
mayors Rolando Barrientos (GANA) of Quetzaltenango, Amilcar 
Rivera (PP) of Mixco, and Salvador Gandara (PU) of Villa 
Nueva. 
¶7.  (U) Those in Need of Immunity.  Another group of winners 
were those in need of congressional or mayoral immunity from 
criminal prosecution.  Former President Rios Montt won 
election to Congress, which will afford him protection from 
pending charges of genocide in Spanish and domestic courts. 
Notorious drug traffickers Brothers Manuel and Enrique 
Castillo won mayoral offices in Jutiapa Department, as did 
their close friend and associate Marvin Zepeda.  At least for 
the time being, their new offices will afford them immunity 
from prosecution for narcotics trafficking and, in Manuel's 
case, alleged involvement in the murders of the three 
Salvadoran Parlacen deputies. 
 
Mixed Outcomes 
-------------- 
¶8.  (C) Perez Molina and PP.  While Otto Perez Molina 
achieved his goal of making it to the second round, many of 
his supporters believed momentum from rising poll numbers and 
a solid performance in the CNN debate would carry him into a 
first-place finish.  Instead, he won 23.5% of the vote, as 
compared to Colom's 28.2%, a result which caused some 
disappointment in the Perez Molina camp.  One senior campaign 
staffer, reacting to the first-round results, summed up the 
feeling inside the PP camp by saying, "starting tomorrow, 
we're getting back to work."  Despite Perez Molina's 
second-place finish, many observers think the momentum favors 
him in the second round. 
 
¶9.  (C) Mirador Electoral.  With USAID and other 
international assistance, National NGO Mirador Electoral 
("Electoral Observer") succeeded in organizing a national 
monitoring mission composed of some 4,000, mostly young, 
Guatemalan citizens.  However, Mirador's quick count was 
delayed by transmission and other organizational problems. 
 
The Losers 
---------- 
¶10.  (C) Rigoberta Menchu.  1992 Nobel Peace Prize Winner 
Rigoberta Menchu, of the Encounter for Guatemala (EPG), 
dropped from fourth in the polls to finish in sixth-place 
with 3.1% of the vote.  Her party's congressional slate did 
twice as well, receiving 6.2% of the vote.  Furthermore, 
Menchu won only 2.4% of the vote in her hometown of Uspantan, 
Quiche.  The reasons for Menchu's rout are complex, but the 
explanations one commonly hears include: the indigenous 
community is fragmented, and Mayans from other groups are 
unwilling to be represented by a Quiche; she lacks political 
skills; her campaign lacked resources; and that she is an 
indigenous woman in a society dominated by ladino men. 
Whatever the reasons may be, Menchu's candidacy was 
unpopular, and she appears to have been a liability to her 
small party. 
 
¶11.  (U) Several small, leftist parties won so few votes that 
they lost their legal standing as political parties.  These 
include the Guatemalan Democratic Christian Party (DCG), the 
Party of Authentic Integral Development (DIA), and the New 
Nation Alliance (ANN).  The presidential candidate for the 
ANN was former guerrilla commander Pablo Monsanto, whose 
pro-Cuban Armed Rebel Forces (FAR) assassinated U.S. 
Ambassador John Gordon Mein in 1968. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶12.  (C) Although the PP was somewhat disappointed with Perez 
Molina's second-place finish, many Guatemalan observers 
believe that that the former general will have an easier time 
convincing the supporters of first-round, center-right 
candidates Giammattei, Suger, Fritz, and Rabbe to vote for 
him than will center-left Colom.  Colom's overwhelming 
victory at the mayoral level, however, will give him a solid 
rural campaign structure that Perez Molina does not have. 
The presidential election remains a horse race, but whoever 
wins will have to be ready to negotiate with the opposition 
in the divided Congress. 
Derham