VZCZCXRO9710
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #1193/01 2141929
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 021929Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5129
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0351
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0488
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 0741
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 001193 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RANDALL BUDDEN) 
DS/IP/WHA 
DS/IP/ITA 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON ECPS ASEC SNAR KCOR OAS CARICOM
JM, XL 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NUMBER THREE 
 
REF: (A) KINGSTON 1126 (201159Z JUL 07)(NOTAL) 
(B) KINGSTON 1161 (252025Z JUL 07) 
(C) 06 KINGSTON 2021 (121230Z OCT 06)(NOTAL) 
(D) KINGSTON 393 (211315Z MAR 07)(NOTAL) 
(E) KINGSTON 1144 (232029Z JUL 07)(NOTAL) 
 
Summary and Analysis 
--------------------- 
 
1.(SBU) In this third round-up of election-related developments: 
 
-- Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) issues ambitious Manifesto, 
including proposals for dramatic debt and deficit reductions; 
 
-- A JLP government's foreign policy would focus on attracting 
investment and business, and would advocate a reorientation of 
CARICOM; 
 
-- Latest poll shows parties in statistical dead heat; 
 
-- Violent incidents continue to mar campaign; 
 
-- OAS and CARICOM observers to monitor August 27 election; 
 
-- Controversial USD 7.5 million cellular license returned to 
Government, Solutrea to leave Jamaica; 
 
-- Local People's National Party (PNP) activist arrested on drug 
trafficking charges. 
 
Analysis:  The opposition JLP's slick media spots and polished, 
well-received Manifesto are no accident: the Party has been 
preparing for months, carefully building grassroots support at the 
local level.  In contrast, the ruling PNP is dependent almost 
entirely on the personal charisma of Prime Minister (PM) Portia 
Simpson Miller (PSM).  Thus far, the PNP's formidable public 
relations machine has resembled a Maserati running on four 
cylinders; but in coming weeks, it may accelerate to full throttle, 
making for the closest finish of any election Jamaica has seen in 
decades. 
End Summary and Analysis. 
 
JLP Issues Ambitious Manifesto 
------------------------------ 
 
2.(SBU)  The opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) launched its 
127-page "Manifesto 2007" at a function held at the Jamaica 
Conference Centre in Kingston on July 30.  Across a wide spectrum of 
economic and social issues, the JLP Manifesto charts an ambitious 
course; its salient proposals include the following: 
 
-- Amendment of the constitution to replace the Queen with a 
Jamaican President who would be approved by two-thirds majorities of 
both Houses of Parliament; 
 
-- Complete independence for the Bank of Jamaica to set monetary 
policy and maintain price stability; 
 
-- On a phased basis within five years, a constitutional limit of 
public debt (currently 130 percent of GDP) to 95 percent of GDP; and 
a constitutional limit of the fiscal deficit (5.5 percent of GDP in 
2006/07) to no more than 3 percent of GDP; 
 
-- Appointment of a Special Prosecutor to combat corruption; 
 
-- Imposition of two-term limit for prime ministers, and 
establishment of fixed election dates; 
 
-- Requirement for approval by two-thirds majorities in both Houses 
of Parliament of appointments to a number of sensitive posts, 
including Chief Justice, Director of Public Prosecutions, Contractor 
General, and Governor of the Bank of Jamaica; 
 
-- Legislation to regulate the financial operations of political 
parties; 
 
-- Criminal sanctions for abuses in the award of government 
contracts, legal protection for "whistleblowers" revealing 
government corruption, and modernization of libel and slander laws 
to facilitate exposures of wrongdoing. 
 
-- Redevelopment of historic Port Royal in Kingston Harbor as a 
duty-free tourist and cruise ship destination; 
 
 
KINGSTON 00001193  002 OF 003 
 
 
-- Establishment of an offshore financial sector based in Kingston; 
 
-- "Unrestricted, universal access" to national healthcare, to 
include dismantling the Regional Health Authorities; 
 
((Note: the full text of the JLP Manifesto is on-line at: 
http://www.jlpteam.com/manifesto/docs.  Post will provide further 
analysis via septel. 
End Note.)) 
 
Foreign Policy: It's the Economy 
-------------------------------- 
 
3.(SBU)  In the campaign to date, foreign policy considerations have 
been limited almost exclusively to JLP allegations of improper 
donations to the ruling People's National Party (PNP) by: 
 
-- the Dutch oil trading firm Trafigura (Reftel C); and 
 
-- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (Reftel D). 
 
4.(SBU) JLP General Secretary and shadow spokesman for foreign 
policy Karl Samuda has told the media that a JLP government would 
not break diplomatic relations with Venezuela.  Revealingly, the new 
JLP Manifesto includes foreign policy as a sub-topic under the 
chapter "Financial Management, Economic Development, and Growth," 
and states that: "our foreign policy approach must be to secure 
export markets and attract investors into our economy."  A JLP 
government would merge Jamaica Trade and Invest (formerly JAMPRO), 
the Development Bank of Jamaica, and the Export/Import Bank to 
create one powerful mega-agency responsible for investment promotion 
and marketing.  The Manifesto also says that a JLP Government will 
"press for the removal of domestic support of agricultural products 
by the European Union and the United States as a precondition for 
further liberalization of market access for such products." 
 
JLP: CARICOM should reorient 
---------------------------- 
 
5.(SBU) At the Manifesto's launch, Opposition Leader Bruce Golding 
underscored that the JLP is not "anti-CARICOM...we are just 
anti-stagnation."  The JLP believes CARICOM has been too inward 
looking: "All that we have done in CARICOM for 30 years is to 
redistribute poverty, and that was not the intention;" the focus 
should be on broadening markets to extend the region's reach. 
 
A Virtual Dead Heat 
------------------- 
 
6.(SBU)  A Donald Anderson survey released August 2, based on data 
compiled July 19-23, gives the PNP 32.8 percent support and the JLP 
29.3 percent, with the remainder either undecided or not intending 
to vote. According to this poll, over the last month support for the 
JLP has increased 3.7 percent, and for the PNP 2.1 percent. 
 
Violent Incidents Continue to Mar Campaign 
------------------------------------------ 
 
7.(SBU) Sporadic violence continues to mar the campaign, with 
unconfirmed charges and counter-charges that the various incidents - 
alleged strafing of motorcades, intimidation, assaults, murders, 
defacements of political billboards - have been politically 
motivated or staged.  Both major parties accuse each other of 
failing to control their respective supporters.  The PNP candidate 
for the volatile St. Elizabeth Southeast district, Norman Horne, has 
alleged that the JLP has imported thugs from the Tivoli Gardens area 
to intimidate PNP supporters; JLP candidate Frank Witter claims he 
has no knowledge of this. 
 
8.(SBU)  Prime Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) has 
declared that she "has drawn the line," and will meet with the 
opposition JLP to discuss peace only if the talks are mediated by 
either the Church or Political Ombudsman Bishop Herro Blair; in 
response, Opposition Leader Bruce Golding has said: "If we are to 
unite the country, if we are to move forward as one nation, my job 
is to erase every line that is drawn." 
 
9.(SBU)  In an effort to reduce tensions, Political Ombudsman Blair 
has demanded that both parties remove their flags, posters, and 
graffiti - which in garrison communities often demarcate political 
turf - by August 4; compliance appears doubtful.  A return to the 
orchestrated violence of the 1980 campaign, during which hundreds 
were killed, appears unlikely; however, whether either party can 
enforce compliance with the Ombudsman's demands, or prevent an 
 
KINGSTON 00001193  003 OF 003 
 
 
escalation of random violent incidents, remains an open question. 
 
OAS, CARICOM Observers 
---------------------- 
 
10.(SBU) Director of Elections Danville Walker has confirmed that 
observers from the OAS and CARICOM will monitor the August 27 
election.  He also has reiterated his confidence in the integrity of 
the electoral process, to include the secrecy of ballots.  For its 
part, the Jamaica Defence Force (JDF) has conducted exercises in 
preparing a "security blanket" to protect those polling stations 
deemed most at risk of violence. 
 
Return of controversial cellular license: 
Solutrea to leave Jamaica 
----------------------------------------- 
 
11.(SBU)  Solutrea Jamaica Ltd. will return the USD 7.5 million 
cellular telephone license it recently acquired from the 
controversial Minister of Industry, Technology, Energy, and Commerce 
Philip Paulwell, a close advisor and confidant of PSM.  CEO Keith 
Walker announced the firm's withdrawal from Jamaica during a press 
briefing on August 31, explaining that: "unfortunately, the project 
has become the subject of much controversy, raising even questions 
regarding our corporate integrity and bona fides."  Paulwell has 
been widely criticized for alleged mismanagement of Jamaica's 
Universal Access Fund (UAF, background Reftel E), and for other 
alleged skullduggery in office; the opposition JLP has portrayed his 
shady record as exemplifying the need for political housecleaning. 
A Ministerial Committee was set up to investigate the awarding of 
the license to Solutrea, and subsequently has absolved Paulwell of 
wrongdoing; skeptics claim the Committee was more interested in 
minimizing the political fallout during the election than getting at 
the truth. 
 
PNP Activist Indicted on Drug Trafficking Charges 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
12.(SBU)  Prominent businessman and local-level Mt. Salem Division 
PNP councilor Errol Lamey has been arrested after 60 pounds of ganja 
were found in a container of lumber he had attempted to ship from 
Kingston. Lamey is the head of the community-based organization 
RELIEF (Restoring Enjoyable Living in Each Family).  He has denied 
any wrongdoing, and PNP officials have made no comment to date. 
JOHNSON