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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 SUVA 000349 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017 
TAGS: PREL MARR PHUM ASEC CVIS PINR TN
SUBJECT: TENSION IN TONGA; LIGHT IN THE TUNNEL? 
 
REF: SUVA 338 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) Tonga may re-energize stalled political-reform 
discussions.  Parliament has created a tripartite commission 
to consider specifics, including parliamentary numbers and 
the date for the next election.  Reportedly, the King has 
agreed to act "only on advice" of an elected government, but 
some doubt his sincerity and the devil will be in the 
details.  A motivation to re-start reform is a perception 
that the public mood is again turning ugly, against the King 
and Prime Minister Sevele.  Nobody wants a repeat of last 
November's riot.  In the meantime, cases against riot 
participants, including prominent People's Representatives, 
are moving through the courts.  A report by human-rights 
activists documenting post-riot abuses by security forces has 
gained "no traction" in Tonga or the region.  Tonga 
Government suppression of media coverage of acrimonious 
parliamentary debate has angered many.  The King's plans for 
reconstructing downtown Nuku'alofa using a Chinese loan 
include crowd-control themes.  The loan is controversial, 
with charges of favoritism, worries about details, and fears 
of exchange-rate risk.  Reportedly the King has recalled his 
ambassador to China.  Foreign Minister Tu'a complained 
bitterly that tiny Tonga is going beyond the call of duty to 
support the U.S. in Iraq, yet the U.S. super power isn't able 
to provide visa services in Tonga.  End summary. 
 
A tripartite commission for political reform 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶2. (C) During a July 3-8 visit to Tonga that included a ship 
visit by the USS John Paul Jones with a July 4 reception on 
board, the Ambassador met with a wide variety of Tongans 
about political and economic developments.  Tonga politics 
may be reaching a decision point on reform.  Parliament 
agreed on the evening of July 2 to set up a nine-person 
tripartite committee (3 Cabinet, 3 Nobles, and 3 People's 
Representatives) to discuss compromises.  Parliament then 
recessed until August 6.  By July 6, all three groups had 
named their teams.  Cabinet selected the Deputy Prime 
Minister, the Attorney General, and the Minister for Youth. 
People's Reps selected Akilisi Pohiva, Clive Edwards, and 
Uliti Uata.  We have not yet seen the Nobles' names.  The 
tripartite committee was to hold its first meeting July 9 and 
is to report back ASAP, ideally by Parliament's August 6 
re-opening. 
 
Pondering parliamentary numbers 
------------------------------- 
¶3. (C) The Commonwealth's special emissary to Tonga, New 
Zealander Sir Douglas Graham, was in Nuku'alofa last week, 
floating a possible compromise regarding parliamentary 
numbers and election dates.  Per reftel, Tonga's National 
Committee on Political Reform proposed last year a revised, 
all-elected parliament of 17 People's Reps and 9 Nobles.  PM 
Sevele counter-proposed 14 People's Reps, 9 Nobles, and 4 or 
5 selections by the King.  People's Reps then proposed 21 
People's Reps and 9 Nobles.  Reportedly Sevele's office 
recently offered a new proposal in writing to People's Reps: 
18 People's Reps, 9 Nobles, and 4 King appointees.  Graham 
told us he has suggested the numbers be: 17 or 18 People's 
Reps, 9 Nobles, and 3 King's appointees.  He sees a few 
expert appointees (AG? Finance?) as useful in a Westminster 
system.  He reportedly received encouraging vibrations from 
all sides.  Graham has urged appointment of a "facilitator" 
for tripartite discussion and indicated he would be willing 
to play the role. 
 
Considering election timing 
--------------------------- 
¶4. (C) On the issue of election timing, the Constitution 
mandates that an election take place every three years (by 
early 2008).  PM Sevele has urged a delay, given trauma from 
last November's riot and the need to negotiate constitutional 
amendments with new parliamentary numbers.  Sevele has 
mentioned 2010 or 2011.  Some People's Reps, particularly 
Clive Edwards, have insisted to this point that the election 
take place on time.  Edwards notes that amending the Tonga 
Constitution can be done rapidly.  All that is required is 
unanimous agreement by the Cabinet and Privy Council (the 
Privy Council consists of the Cabinet plus the King) and then 
 
SUVA 00000349  002 OF 005 
 
 
a majority vote in Parliament.  Thus, given current Tonga 
realities, if the King is on aboard amendments are easy. 
Graham told us his instinct is the election should be put off 
a year or two, to permit careful preparation of 
constitutional amendments and to create separation from the 
riot atmosphere.  (Note: any postponement of the election 
will require a constitutional amendment.) 
 
Looming above: the powers of the King 
------------------------------------- 
¶5. (C) Of course the big issue, more than mere numbers, will 
be the powers of the King.  We heard repeatedly that, even 
before the riot, the King had informed the Privy Council that 
he is prepared to act entirely "on advice" of an elected 
government.  He reportedly is willing to put that commitment 
in writing, though he opposes a formal constitutional 
amendment.  Attorney General Taumoepeau told us she has 
drafted such a "convention" that awaits approval.  Details of 
such a commitment would be important: is it clear the 
all-elected parliament would select the PM via democratic 
means?  Would the King really forego all independent power? 
We heard skepticism from several interlocutors who are 
convinced "the King is instinctively an autocrat."  He would 
expect to find ways to maintain prerogatives.  Noble 
Filakepa, Lord Chamberlain and close to the King, told us 
that, for any agreement about powers, it will be essential to 
include the King's brother Crown Prince Tupoutoa Lavaka in 
the discussion.  When Lavaka was PM he clearly had no 
interest in spurring democratic reform.  Filakepa said, "The 
King's health is not good at all."  He suffers from diabetes 
and heart ailments. 
 
Tripartite posturing and politicking 
------------------------------------ 
¶6. (C) We spoke with all three People's Rep members of the 
tripartite committee and with two of the three Cabinet 
representatives.  All expressed strong interest in moving 
beyond the post-riot stalemate.  The People's Reps expressed 
skepticism about the King's willingness to abide by an "on 
advice" formula; but they expect reform to build eventually 
unstoppable momentum, so they are willing to seek 
compromises.  On numbers, Edwards intends to press initially 
for the People's Reps 21-9 formula (that PM Sevele accepted 
under duress during the riot), hoping to parlay any retreat 
from that into a guarantee of 2008 elections under revised 
numbers.  Pohiva and Uata seemed relatively comfortable with 
something like the Graham compromise, so long as an election 
would not be unduly delayed.  Both said they would initially 
be in listening mode.  Several Cabinet members we spoke with, 
including Foreign Minister Tu'a who previously had advocated 
a "go slow" approach, noted the urgency of moving forward on 
reform ASAP.  They appeared ready to find a compromise, and 
AG Taumoepeau noted a real need to "air issues" collegially. 
Sevele, not on the committee, was rather grouchy about the 
potential for a quick solution, though he accepts the need 
for discussion. 
 
Public mood turning against Government again 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶7. (C) A likely explanation for sudden Cabinet interest in 
"moving forward" is a sense that the public mood is 
increasingly unstable.  Several savvy sources, not just 
People's Reps, told us that public shock from the riot, which 
initially reduced popularity for the People's Reps who 
allegedly orchestrated the tragedy, has worn off.  People are 
becoming increasingly frustrated by PM Sevele and the King, 
who are seen as advocating policies for their personal 
benefit.  A large China loan (see below) is seen as 
illustrative.  Also, the continuing state of emergency chafes 
on many and creates resentment against security forces. 
Tonga's economic woes are hitting businesses and the poor 
very hard.  Sevele's efforts to stifle media reporting, 
including of parliamentary debate, are irritating.  And 
Sevele is seen as attempting to "control everything" 
utilizing outside consultants, showing a lack of trust in the 
public service.  Several interlocutors suggested Sevele, who 
is still attempting to cope with large personal losses from 
the riot, is under great pressure from all sides.  Reportedly 
his health has suffered; asthma attacks are more frequent. 
Edwards has heard threats that, absent obvious reform, Sevele 
and/or the King "will be shot" within 6 months.  Edwards said 
he is discouraging such talk, since assassinations "would set 
back political reform for 20 years." 
 
 
SUVA 00000349  003 OF 005 
 
 
Moving ahead on post-riot trials 
-------------------------------- 
¶8. (C) People's Reps have another motive to be flexible. 
Five, including all three on the tripartite committee, are 
under indictment on sedition charges related to the riot. 
Their next court appearance is July 18, when trial dates are 
to be set.  They are nervous, though they profess innocence. 
They may figure efforts to contribute constructively to a 
political compromise would factor into more lenient sentences 
if they are found guilty.  (Note.  Four of the five are now 
likely to opt for jury trials, believing the public mood has 
shifted sufficiently to make their basic instinct to "trust 
the people" a good bet.  Uata expressed confidence that 80% 
or more of the people are currently supporting the People's 
Rep reform efforts, including in outer islands.  Edwards, who 
made many enemies while serving as Minister of Police in the 
past, will rely on trial by judge.) 
 
¶9. (C) The AG said the initial arrests of over 1000 people on 
riot offenses has been cut.  Some had charges dismissed. 
Some, especially juveniles, have been diverted to informal 
punishments.  The total number of cases now is around 300, a 
manageable number.  Chief Justice Ford similarly said the 
justice system, which has a new Aussie judge and plans for 
one more expat, is in the best shape in recent years to 
handle its workload.  The AG sees only 20-25 cases, including 
the People's Rep sedition trials, as big ones.  The AG said 
there is "solid evidence" that People's Reps helped plan the 
riot, "though maybe they intended a smaller version."  She 
said "business troublemakers" were also involved. 
 
No traction for post-riot human rights complaints 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶10. (C) As reported previously, human rights activists in 
Tonga have complained that security forces engaged in abuses 
of those arrested after the riot.  While activists disavowed 
an initial report of such abuses, they later issued a revised 
version that alleged widespread problems.  The organizer of 
the report, Betty Blake, told us police and military 
officials were given opportunity to comment during 
preparation of the report but declined to assist.  We were 
told PM Sevele dismissed the report publicly and praised 
security-services' restraint.  Diplomats in Nuku'alofa said 
the report received "no traction" in Tonga or in the region. 
 
Stifling media coverage of parliament 
------------------------------------- 
¶11. (C) The issue of media freedom, on the other hand, has 
been receiving considerable attention.  During the most 
recent session of Parliament, People's Reps engaged in 
bitter, personal attacks on PM Sevele and the King, 
especially during debate on the China loan, which many expect 
will benefit the PM's and King's business interests.  The 
parliamentary debate was being covered on Radio Tonga, and a 
Tonga Broadcasting Company (TBC) commentator was delivering 
frequent summaries on TV news programs.  The PM's office 
complained to TBC, which then shut down reporting from 
Parliament.  The result has been very limited news.  Even the 
"tripartite commission" decision had received no public 
dissemination by the weekend.  People's Reps, who want 
coverage of their attacks on Sevele, are upset. 
 
Reconstruction plans with a crowd-control twist 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶12. (C) Memories of the November riot and concern about the 
future public mood are coloring plans for reconstruction of 
the Nuku'alofa central business district.  The King has been 
working closely with Chinese architects on blueprints which 
include three-story, flat-roofed buildings extending three 
blocks along the main street.  Reportedly, the flat roofs are 
intended to facilitate security-force sniper fire if a future 
riot occurs.  The King has also instructed the Tonga Defense 
Service (TDS) to make plans for a horse-cavalry unit.  The 
obvious aim, beyond the King's love of British-style 
ceremony, is crowd-control in future emergencies.  Foreign 
Minister (acting Defense Minister) Tu'a and TDS Commander 
Uta'atu admitted as much.  Tu'a has been assigned 
responsibility to oversee implementation of the Chinese 
construction project.  He said the intention is for TDS 
manpower to be heavily involved. 
 
Issues with the China loan 
-------------------------- 
¶13. (C) Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu told us the Chinese loan 
 
SUVA 00000349  004 OF 005 
 
 
totaling some US$ 55 million is all tied aid.  The China 
Civil Engineering Construction Company (CCECC) will be prime 
contractor.  Tonga hopes CCECC will subcontract elements to 
Tonga firms, but project design and much of the construction 
will be Chinese.  Tonga businesses will be offered space, 
with mortgages back to the Tonga Government.  Issues are 
already arising.  Those who currently possess the land within 
the reconstruction zone want a say in what is designed and 
built.  Some don't want three stories.  Reportedly only 
businesses that are "debt free" will be eligible to 
participate, but many are already burdened by past loans. 
Some businesses that relocated temporarily from the city 
center see no reason to return to a high-rent district.  A 
potentially huge issue is foreign-exchange risk. 
'Utoikamanu, briefed by the IMF, flagged the danger to 
Cabinet; but "they weren't interested in hearing it."  Sevele 
and others who desperately need reconstruction money just 
wanted to plunge ahead. 
 
Recalling the Ambassador to China 
--------------------------------- 
¶14. (C) PM Sevele expressed disappointment to us that China 
had not been as flexible in loan terms as Tonga wanted. 
Nonetheless, the PM forced approval of the loan through 
Parliament, after weathering the People's Reps' personal 
attacks.  Another possible indicator of problems with the 
Chinese: the Lord Chamberlain told us Tonga's Ambassador to 
China has been unexpectedly recalled, even though most people 
perceived she had been doing a fine job.  Reportedly the King 
was in "a foul mood" all week.  Our request for a meeting was 
not answered. 
 
Conflicting interests in Shoreline 
---------------------------------- 
¶15. (C) Among the charges which People's Reps raised in 
Parliament was that part of the China loan would be used in 
the Government's buy-back of the King's Shoreline company, 
Tonga's electric utility.  The King took over Shoreline in a 
sweetheart deal several years ago when he was out of 
government.  On ascending the throne he immediately announced 
he would sell off all business assets.  The early hope had 
been a potential New Zealand arms-length buyer, but the riot 
ended that interest.  Now the Sevele Government has agreed to 
the buy-back.  Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu insisted on an 
independent evaluation of the utility's net value by Deloitte 
Touche of NZ, since the King as seller and buyer would have 
an "inherent conflict of interest."  'Utoikamanu couldn't say 
where Finance would find the money for the eventual payout to 
the King. 
 
Ministerial anger: visas versus Iraq 
------------------------------------ 
¶16. (C) At a dinner hosted by Foreign/Defense Minister Tu'a, 
conversation was generally cordial.  However, twice "visas" 
came up, and Tu'a lit off.  He noted the long-term, close 
bilateral relationship and Tonga's willingness to assist the 
United States interests in global security, including by 
volunteering for new TDS deployments to the Coalition of the 
Willing in Iraq.  Yet, he fumed, the United States forces 
Tonga citizens to travel all the way to Suva to apply for 
visas.  Either a U.S. embassy/consulate should open in 
Nuku'alofa, or arrangements should be made for Embassy Suva 
consular officers to adjudicate visa cases in Tonga.  We 
attempted to explain, as we have many times before, the 
complications of post-9/11 visa processing and the pilot 
projects CA is running to see if portable fingerprinting is 
feasible.  But Tu'a was having none of it.  (Note/comment: We 
have had several similar conversations with Sevele.  Tonga's 
PKO efforts certainly deserve our respect.  If a suitably 
portable system can be approved, Embassy Suva stands ready to 
utilize it for Tonga visa processing, presuming we will have, 
or can add, any necessary resources to cope with an expected 
increase in visa applications.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶17. (C) The tripartite commission will only succeed if all 
elements are ready to discuss and compromise.  Until 
recently, that had not appeared to be the case, and we are 
still not overconfident about PM Sevele's attitude.  However, 
many others in Tonga are clearly anxious to make political 
progress.  The questions of just what the King means by 
"acting on advice," and what his brother the Crown Prince 
would mean by it, are crucial.  The plans for "flat roofs" 
 
SUVA 00000349  005 OF 005 
 
 
and "horse cavalry" make one pause.  China's big loan is 
Tonga's only offer of the kind of capital needed to get major 
reconstruction under way.  Thus it is welcome.  But China 
takes a risk.  Many Tongans are already prejudiced against 
Chinese.  The controversial building plans and the swarms of 
Chinese workers to be involved will likely fuel still more 
racial resentment.  PM Sevele's squelching of the media is 
troubling.  People's Rep Uata has urged the U.S. and others 
to issue condemnatory public statements.  We noted that the 
U.S. Human Rights Report on Tonga already makes clear our 
concern about intimidation of the media, and our strong 
support for media freedom. 
DINGER