VZCZCXRO9624
PP RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHYD #0741/01 1591039
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 081039Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7833
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1617
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1864
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 000741 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS 
EUCOM FOR J5-A AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR PHUM CM
SUBJECT: WHILE NOT PRETTY, CAMEROON'S ELECTION PREP IS 
MOVING AHEAD 
 
 
Classified By: Poloff Tad Brown for 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (C)  With less than fifty days before voters go to the 
polls on July 22, the Government of Cameroon's handling of 
critical elements of the pre-election period has been marred 
with procedural irregularities.  Some observers are 
questioning the government's commitment to democratic reform, 
pointing to a series of questionable presidential decrees, 
the continued use of government assets for ruling CPDM party 
politicking, and flawed registration efforts (and an 
incredibly complex process) fraught with hurdles for 
prospective voters.  Accordingly, the newly-computerized 
voter roll is likely to fall short of pre-election goals, 
while perhaps still representing an increase over the 2004 
registration figure.  The Supreme Court is currently hearing 
challenges based on these shortcomings.  While the elections 
will be far from perfect, with cleaned and computerized voter 
rolls, growing election fever and rejection of many 
imcumbents in the primaries, they should represent a step 
forward for Cameroon's nascent democracy.  End summary. 
 
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Registration: Falling Down Before the Start 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  The Government of Cameroon (GRC) was criticized 
after the 2004 elections that brought Biya into his final -- 
according to the current constitution -- seven-year term, but 
those elections were widely believed to represent the 
electorate's preference for Biya over a large slate of 
challengers.  The Commonwealth, in a team headed by former 
Canadian Prime Minister Joe Clark, pushed aggressively 
afterwards for the establishment of a new, independent 
electoral body to free Cameroon from elections run by the 
Interior Ministry (MINTAD).  In the end, the GRC passed 
legislation calling for a new agency, Elections Cameroon 
(ELECAM), but not in time for the Parliamentary and municipal 
elections slated for July 22.  The Commonwealth perceives the 
delay as GRC foot-dragging and, perhaps as a result, is 
unlikely to dispatch any observers. 
 
¶3.  (U)  A primary thrust of post-2004 criticism was the need 
to clean the electoral rolls and expand the number of 
registered voters; from 4.6 million in 2004, there was hope 
to expand the base to perhaps seven million this year.  Here, 
too, the GRC's efforts have been disparaged as half-hearted 
or, worse, intentionally ineffective in order to enhance 
prospects for the ruling CPDM party, whose constituent base 
is well established.  Cameroonian law allows prospective 
voters to register year-round, but many of the national 
government's delegates at the local level (who carry out 
registration) claimed they were awaiting instructions from 
the capital before opening registration.  This delay was due 
in part to MINTAD efforts to complete computerization of the 
existing voter rolls first, another project borne of the 2004 
criticisms.  Even then, an aspiring voter faced a daunting 
set of obstacles, including the requirement to register in 
the presence of a roving commission whose schedule was 
unknown. 
 
¶4.  (U) Embassy employees and contacts who tried to register 
in Yaounde and Douala reported persistent difficulties and 
frequent instances of apparent tribal discrimination. 
Reports from the hinterlands, however, where ethnic 
homogeneity is the norm, were almost universally more 
positive.  Nonetheless, with a largely dispersed, poor, 
illiterate, and generally apathetic population, even a more 
ambitious and well-planned registration effort would have 
faced shortcomings.  Some observers claimed that the GRC made 
no meaningful push to attract new registrants, although 
MINTAD ran daily announcements in multiple newspapers warning 
that, under Cameroonian law, registration would close once 
elections were called -- an unprecedented action that 
responded to demands from diplomats for a more pro-active GRC 
role in promoting registration.  Biya also waited until the 
latest date permissible under Cameroonian law to call the 
elections, thus maximizing the time for registration to 
occur.  Faced with calls from certain quarters (but not from 
diplomats, who remained studiously silent on this question) 
to extend the period of registration beyond the legally 
required closing of the rolls triggered by the call of 
 
YAOUNDE 00000741  002 OF 003 
 
 
elections, Biya said he was legally bound to close 
registration.  Clearly apathy was a serious problem among 
potential registrants, and indeed it is not clear that many 
more would have registered if given additional time. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  With UNDP assistance and its own funding, MINTAD 
computerized the existing voter rolls and is now in the 
process of adding new registrants and scrubbing the old voter 
lists for duplications, deceased voters, and fraud.  At a May 
31 donor meeting, an expert attached to MINTAD predicted that 
roughly one in five entries in the electoral rolls would be 
stricken as a duplicate entry.  This leaves open the 
possibility that the voter list for 2007 could even be 
smaller than in 2004, a potential political embarrassment for 
Biya.  However, both MINTAD Minister Marafa and the Prime 
Minister have told the Ambassador in confidence that they 
expect the final number to be close to 5.5 million; if it 
comes to pass, this would represent a modest improvement over 
past elections. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Gerrymandering After the Elections Are Called 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  In a Decree released five days after the formal 
convocation of the electorate, the Presidency unilaterally 
announced a restructuring of national constituencies. 
Opposition parties, civil society activists and even some 
CPDM officials decried the action as illegal and 
transparently designed to increase the CPDM's advantage.  The 
Catholic Church and the League for Equality of Women and 
Children (LEFE, a previous recipient of USG Democracy and 
Human Rights funding) have challenged the decision in court. 
In private conversations, Interior Minister Marafa told us 
that the redistricting was based on the information contained 
in the recently completed national census.  The problem, 
Marafa admitted, is that the GRC has yet to make the census 
results public, leading many to speculate that the 
information therein shows demographic shifts that do not 
favor the CPDM or the politically dominant Beti ethnic group. 
 Release of the census data would presumably address these 
concerns, and diplomats are pressing for this to occur. 
Marafa also expressed to us his intense frustration about the 
Presidency's failure to release the redistricting decree 
before convoking the electorate, explaining that MINTAD had 
submitted it in final in February. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Cameroonian Law Trumped by "Administrative Tolerance" 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶7.  (U)  Under Cameroonian law, all political parties must 
submit their lists of candidates to MINTAD within two weeks 
of the convocation of the electorate.  The Prime Minister, 
urged on by many, though not all, opposition parties, decided 
to extend this deadline, saying that a number of national 
holidays made it impossible for parties to comply with the 
legal requirement and basing his decision -- widely perceived 
to be illegal -- on what he termed "administrative 
tolerance."  By many accounts, it was the CPDM -- which had 
yet to hold primary elections -- that was the most unprepared 
to meet this deadline.  This decision, too, is being 
challenged in court by the Catholic Church and LEFE. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Politicking and Primaries in the CPDM 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U)  Against this backdrop of elections preparation, the 
CPDM has been consumed by primary elections, an unprecedented 
number of which resulted in the rejection of incumbent 
Members of Parliament and local officials.  In submitting the 
final list to MINTAD, the CPDM Central Committee, which 
reviews the candidate lists, decided to overrule some of the 
primary results.  Although the supporters of those removed 
from the list protested the decision -- in some cases 
violently -- independent observers welcomed the changes, 
however irregular or undemocratic, because the individuals 
removed represented the seedier side of the ruling party 
(including, for example, Fon Doh of Balikumbat, who who was 
convicted of murder but released on "medical grounds," and 
another who was arrested in 2006 while trying to flee to 
Gabon with suitcases of cash).  However, at least one 
opposition party candidate has told us that the conduct of 
the CPDM nomination process this year was markedly more 
 
YAOUNDE 00000741  003 OF 003 
 
 
democratic than in previous years. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Are the Elections Dead on Arrival? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  With the elections just six weeks away, some Western 
donors already are expressing private cynicism of the GRC's 
preceived weak commitment to democratic processes.  For some, 
the shortcomings of the registration drive alone are 
sufficiently serious to make the actual conduct of the 
elections almost irrelevant.  The British High Commissioner, 
conveying in part the frustration of the Commonwealth, has 
been particularly outspoken about the inability to look 
beyond the "failed registration process".  Pointing to this 
aspect, the British High Commissioner reportedly told Marafa: 
"You can run a perfect election, administratively, and still 
have a total political catastrophe."  Marafa, for his part, 
takes the criticism in stride and told the Ambassador he 
still hopes these elections will be Cameroon's "best ever". 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (C)  We are watching carefully but withholding judgment 
on these elections until they are over.  The process has been 
messy and flawed, but there is still a lot of excitement 
about these elections.  For example, women are seeking office 
in greater numbers and we expect more and more women to cast 
ballots.  Undoubtedly, some problems are inevitable, but the 
GRC's failure to take even the easy steps (release the 
census, ease the process and extend the hours for 
registration) has led many to conclude that its political 
will to run truly democratic elections is lacking. 
Nonetheless, we are not prepared to write off these 
elections, slated to be the last before the next presidential 
election in 2011.  Although the GRC has gotten the process 
off to a rocky start, there have been some improvements -- 
such as computerization and sanitation of the electoral 
rolls, and unprecedented openness in the CPDM primaries. 
Moreover, concerns about the GRC's orgainzation of the 
elections are being handled appropriately, via cases 
presented to the Supreme Court.  One leading oppositing 
figure confided that with repsect to several irregular 
actions he supported the government's aim but disapproved of 
it circumventing the prescribed process to achieve it. 
Though voter participation is likely to be lower than many 
hoped for, the Government's organization of the elections and 
the related court challenges will contribute to Cameroon's 
democratic maturation.  The GRC is also somewhat comforted by 
their perception in the wake of the April elections in 
Nigeria that prospects are limited for heavy criticism from 
groups like the Commonwealth (especially for "mere" 
legislative/municipal elections that apparently will not 
attract any non-resident observers).  We organized a meeting 
of western donors on May 31 at which it became clear that the 
only foreign observers are likely to be those sent by 
embassies.  For our part, we are preparing to send one team 
of observers to each of the ten provinces, and to coordinate 
their deployment with other observing diplomatic missions. 
The French are planning a similar high level of 
participation, while other, smaller missions will contribute 
handfuls.  End comment. 
MARQUARDT