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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 010600Z JUN 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4316
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4851
RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1333

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000413 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EAP/ANP - KELLY MCKELLOGG 
 
E.O. 12985:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV NZ
SUBJECT:  POLLING AS LABOUR GOVT SUPPORT PLUNGES FURTHER, THE 
OPPOSITION SURGES 
 
REF:  A) WELLINGTON 386, B) 06 WELLINGTON 598 
 
WELLINGTON 00000413  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Support for the Labour Government continues to 
slide. Three major New Zealand political polls have shown that it 
now trails the opposition National Party by an average of 20 points. 
They also show that National's new leader John Key has cemented his 
position as New Zealand's preferred Prime Minister over Helen Clark, 
the first to do so in her eight years in office. A series of recent 
events and decisions have conspired to turn a growing number of New 
Zealanders against the Labour Government. Although Clark has been 
successful in reversing past slumps by relying on previous National 
Party missteps, Post believes that a more astute and confident 
National will make this much harder to do this time around. Analysts 
predict that if Labour does not arrest its slide by the start of 
2008 it will prove fatal for the Government's prospects in the 
general elections later that year. END SUMMARY. 
Polls show National ahead of Labour 
----------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) Three major New Zealand political polls, all released after 
the recent announcement of the tepidly-received 2007 Budget (see ref 
A), show that the opposition National Party is now considerably more 
popular that the Labour Government. Averaging out these polls, 
National now has a sizeable 20-point advantage over Labour.  The 
Government's popularity problem has extended to personal polling, 
where National's leader John Key has continued to grow his lead over 
PM Clark as New Zealand's preferred Prime Minister. 
Analysts put Labour on alert 
---------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU) A leading political commentator believes that if Labour is 
still trailing by even half of the current gap which has opened 
between it and National by the February of election year 2008 - when 
campaign politics begin in earnest - it will probably be too late 
for the Government to win re-election. The commentator suggests that 
if National's lead is entrenched at around 10% points by February 
2008, it will be almost impossible for Labour to haul it back and 
win the election. 
¶4. (SBU) A Massey University political analyst believes that the 
vast gap between Labour and National can't be shrugged off as the 
result of a honeymoon period for the new leader of the opposition, 
as propositioned by Clark. The analyst said New Zealand research 
shows people who make up their mind early about whom they will vote 
for are mostly National voters. 
Labour's Options 
---------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Despite its clear unpopularity at present, Labour still has 
the major advantage over National of setting the political agenda, 
the Government also faces a buoyant economy and a large cash surplus 
to call on if needed. In an attempt to refresh her party and revive 
its political fortunes, Clark is expected to reshuffle her cabinet 
in the coming months. 
¶6. (SBU) Key himself says his party is taking heart from the results 
but cautions that it "is still a year and a half out from the 
election, and there is no room for complacency or arrogance." A 
close advisor to Key has told post that National "would like to earn 
the right to be the government and stay in power for an extended a 
period of time." The adviser believes the poll results are a 
reflection that voters are growing tired a directionless and staid 
Labour after three terms in office. 
Polls tell growing gulf between National and Labour 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶7. (SBU) On May 26, the Herald's DigiPoll survey showed National's 
support had reached 50.9% (up 7 points) with Labour dropping 7 
points to 33.6%. The following day the One News-Colmar Brunton poll 
released its findings which showed National up 7 points to 56% and 
Labour conceding 7 points to 31%. On May 30, the Roy Morgan poll had 
National at 49% and Labour on 32%. In Preferred Prime Minister 
polling the Herald's DigiPoll has Key at 45.5% (up 9.3 points) and 
Clark at 42.1% (down 5.6 points). Similarly the Colmar Brunton 
survey found Key gained 10 points to lead Clark, who lost 10 points, 
38% to 27%. These findings track the milestone 3 News-TNS poll 
earlier this month in which Clark had, for the first time since she 
took office in 1999, lost her top billing as New Zealand's Preferred 
Prime Minister (to Key). 
¶8. COMMENT: (SBU) Although Clark attributed Labour's slump to 
"mid-term blues" and expressed confidence that her party could 
recover before the next election, scheduled for the end of 2008, 
Post believes that other factors have contributed to Labour's poor 
polling. One was Labour's support for the highly controversial 
Anti-Spanking Bill. This bill, now passed into law, abolished the 
legal defense of reasonable force against children and banned 
physical punishment of children. It greatly angered a majority of 
New Zealanders who regarded it as an unwarranted intrusion by the 
state into their personal/family lives. This development along with 
the absence of personal tax cuts in the latest budget round, voter 
dissatisfaction with rising interest rates, perceived bungling in 
the law and order portfolio, and the ongoing corruption controversy 
concerning former Labour MP Taito Phillip Field (see ref B) are 
 
WELLINGTON 00000413  002.7 OF 002 
 
 
other contributing factors affecting Labour's decline. After three 
terms in power, it is also clear that a growing number of New 
Zealanders are growing weary of the Labour Government and its MPs. A 
simple cabinet re-shuffle is unlikely to do much to change the 
growing public perception that the Government is jaded and 
out-of-touch, especially when compared with National's newly 
confident and energetic leadership and enlivened caucus. 
¶9. (SBU) In the 8 years it has held power, Labour has experienced a 
few major downturns but none as serious as now. It has usually 
reversed past slumps by waiting for previously gaffe-prone National 
leaders to self-destruct and lose the confidence of voters. However, 
Clark and her colleagues cannot rely on this strategy going forward 
as Key is far less divisive and a more disciplined and politically 
astute National Party leader than his predecessors. Making Labour's 
task more difficult this time is that some in the media have begun 
to swing in behind Key. Some have even dubbed him a leader-in 
waiting. END COMMENT. 
McCormick