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RAAUZYUW RUEHPOD0100 1010931-UUUU--RHMCSUU.
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 110931Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUEHC/USAID WASHDC
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000100 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO SENDS DRAFT CONSTITUTION TO PUBLIC 
 
REF: PODGORICA 32 
 
PODGORICA 00000100  001.3 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
 
 
1.(U) SUMMARY:  ON APRIL 2, MONTENEGRO'S PARLIAMENT SENT THE 
DRAFT CONSTITUTION TO THE PUBLIC FOR THIRTY DAYS OF DEBATE.  MPS 
AGREED THAT "85 PERCENT" OF THE TEXT IS SETTLED, BUT CONTENTIOUS 
ISSUES TOUCHING ON ETHNIC IDENTITY, SUCH AS LANGUAGE, RELIGION, 
AND NATIONAL SYMBOLS, ARE EXTENSIVELY BRACKETED. THE PUBLIC 
DISCUSSION IS UNLIKELY TO REACH CLOSURE ON SUCH ISSUES. IN MAY 
THE PARLIAMENT WILL START HORSE-TRADING AS THE GOVERNMENT SEEKS 
13 VOTES TO REACH THE 54 OF 81 MPS (2/3) NEEDED TO ADOPT THE 
CONSTITUTION WITHOUT A PUBLIC REFERENDUM. END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) MONTENEGRO'S CURRENT CONSTITUTION DATES TO 1992, LONG 
BEFORE INDEPENDENCE.  THE PARLIAMENT ELECTED LAST SEPTEMBER HAS 
BEEN SITTING AS BOTH A CONSTITUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY. 
OVER A PERIOD OF MONTHS, IT REACHED AGREEMENT ON "85 PERCENT" OF 
THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION, IN AREAS DEALING WITH GOVERNMENT 
STRUCTURE AND HUMAN RIGHTS. HOWEVER, THE PREAMBLE IS RIDDLED 
WITH PROPOSED CHANGES, AS PARTIES WRANGLE OVER MONTENEGRO'S 
"IDENTITY" - AS EITHER A "CIVIC STATE" (A DEFINITION ENDORSED, 
EVEN REQUIRED, BY THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE), OR AS A AMALGAMATION 
OF SEVERAL ETHNIC PEOPLES.  THIS HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF AS A 
CONTEST OVER SUCH ISSUES AS THE NATIONAL ANTHEM, FLAG, THE NAME 
(BUT NOT THE ESSENTIAL CHARACTER) OF THE PREDOMINANT LANGUAGE, 
AND THE RELATIVE STATUS OF THE SERBIAN AND MONTENEGRIN ORTHODOX 
CHURCHES. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) POLOFF DISCUSSED THE SUBSTANCE AND PROCESS OF ADOPTING 
THE CONSTITUTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND MODERATE OPPOSITION MPS 
APRIL 4-5, AND WITH ONE OF MONTENEGRO'S REPRESENTATIVES TO THE 
COUNCIL OF EUROPE'S "VENICE COMMISSION," WHICH ADVISES ON 
CONSTITUTIONAL MATTERS. 
 
 
 
DPS: "ALL COMPROMISES" OK, EXCEPT ... 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) MIODRAG VUKOVIC IS THE PARTY WHIP FOR THE LARGEST 
GOVERNING PARTY, THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF SOCIALISTS (DPS), AND 
THE DPS'S LEADING CONSTITUTIONAL EXPERT IN PARLIAMENT. HE TOLD 
POLOFF THAT 62-63 PERCENT OF MPS WOULD VOTE FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S 
TEXT TODAY, JUST SHORT OF THE 2/3 NEEDED FOR PASSAGE WITHOUT A 
REFERENDUM.  HE SURMISED THAT AN "ANTI-CONSTITUTIONAL" BLOC WAS 
FORMING, CENTERED ON THE SERBIAN PEOPLES PARTY (SNS) AND THE 12 
SEATS OF THE "SERBIAN LIST." TO FORESTALL ITS EFFORTS, THE DPS 
IS READY FOR "ALL COMPROMISES" ON THE TEXT, EXCEPT THOSE THAT 
ARE "COMPOSED OF SOMEBODY'S SHORT-TERM POLITICAL AGENDA", DO NOT 
"REFLECT THE MAJORITY WILL OF THE CITIZENS", OR ARE NOT "IN 
ACCORD WITH THE REQUIREMENTS OF EUROPEAN AND EURO-ATLANTIC 
INTEGRATION." 
 
 
 
PZP: ANGLING FOR EARLY ELECTIONS 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) NEBOJSA MEDOJEVIC, LEADER OF THE MODERATE MOVEMENT FOR 
CHANGES (PZP), TOLD POLOFF THAT HE IS LOOKING TO LEVERAGE HIS 
PARTY'S 11 VOTES FOR POLITICAL ADVANTAGE. "EVEN IF WE ARE IN 100 
PERCENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TEXT, THERE WILL BE NO PZP VOTES FOR 
THE CONSTITUTION WITHOUT AGREEMENT THAT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
WILL BE HELD IN 2008." (NOTE: TWO YEARS EARLY. END NOTE.) BOTH 
DPS'S VUKOVIC AND SNP LEADER SRDJAN MILIC REJECTED MEDOJEVIC'S 
"FALSE COMPROMISES." 
 
 
 
JUDICIAL REFORM 
 
--------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) WITHIN THE TEXT, MEDOJEVIC FOCUSED ON THE PROCESS FOR 
SELECTING JUDGES. HE SAID PZP FAVORS MINIMIZING PARLIAMENT'S 
CURRENT ROLE IN FAVOR OF A JUDICIAL COUNCIL, ITSELF APPROVED BY 
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PODGORICA 00000100  002.3 OF 003 
 
 
A 2/3 VOTE IN PARLIAMENT, THAT WOULD SELECT JUDGES AND 
PROSECUTORS BASED ON THE "HIGHEST INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS." 
ADDITIONALLY, THE ENTIRE JUDICIARY SHOULD RESIGN, TO SWEEP OUT 
CORRUPT JUDGES, WHILE ALLOWING COMPETENT OFFICIALS TO BE 
RE-INSTATED. SNP'S MILIC WAS IN BROAD AGREEMENT, PROPOSING A 
DETAILED JUDICIAL COUNCIL COMPOSITION LIKE THAT IN BULGARIA, TO 
REMOVE "OVERLY PARTISAN" JUDGES. 
 
 
 
DEFENSE ISSUES 
 
-------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) MEDOJEVIC DEFENDED PZP'S PROPOSAL TO REQUIRE A 2/3 
PARLIAMENTARY VOTE TO PERMIT UNITS OF MONTENEGRO'S ARMED FORCES 
TO JOIN "INTERNATIONAL FORCES," AS PROVIDING OVERSIGHT ON 
MONTENEGRO'S ACTIVITIES IN NATO.  HOWEVER, PZP IS ISOLATED ON 
THIS POINT, WITH DPS'S VUKOVIC DISMISSING THE AMENDMENT, AND 
SNP'S MILIC FAVORING AN OVERSIGHT ROLE FOR PARLIAMENT PATTERNED 
ON THAT WHICH HE WITNESSED LAST MONTH AS NDI'S GUEST ON THE HILL 
IN WASHINGTON. 
 
 
 
SNP: LEGISLATIVE OVERSIGHT KEY 
 
------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) THE SOCIALIST PEOPLE'S PARTY (SNP) HAS EIGHT SEATS AND, 
IN THE WORDS OF ITS LEADER SRDJAN MILIC, A STRONG "WISH TO BE 
AMONG THE 2/3 OR 3/4 OF THE PARLIAMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE 
CONSTITUTION." A KEY GOAL OF THE SNP IS TO CREATE AND ENSURE A 
STRONG ROLE FOR THE PARLIAMENT, WITH INVESTIGATIVE AND OVERSIGHT 
POWERS WITH RESPECT TO THE GOVERNMENT. A KEY SNP AMENDMENT WOULD 
ALLOW ANY 15 MPS TO DEMAND THAT AN OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE BE 
ESTABLISHED ON ANY GIVEN ISSUE. (NOTE: NEW RULES ADOPTED BY THE 
CURRENT PARLIAMENT CREATED A STRONGER COMMITTEE SYSTEM, AND WITH 
IT THE BEGINNING OF A PARLIAMENTARY INVESTIGATIVE AND OVERSIGHT 
ROLE.  THE RULES WERE DRAFTED AND PROPOSED BY USAID IMPLEMENTER 
NDI. END NOTE.) 
 
 
 
VENICE COMMISSION: OBSERVATIONS, BUT NO REPORT 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
 
¶9. (U) SRDJAN DARMANOVIC, WHO REPRESENTS MONTENEGRO ON THE 
COUNCIL OF EUROPE'S VENICE COMMISSION, OBSERVED THAT 5/6 OF THE 
PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TOUCH ON ISSUES IN THE PREAMBLE, WHICH ARE 
THEMSELVES ISSUES NOT NORMALLY ADDRESSED IN A CONSTITUTION, SUCH 
AS NATIONAL SYMBOLS, RELIGIONS, AND ETHNIC COMPOSITION. HE 
DOUBTED THAT THE CURRENT PUBLIC DISCUSSION WOULD RESOLVE ANY 
SUCH ISSUES.  HE NOTED THAT WHILE THE VENICE COMMISSION WILL 
HOLD A ROUNDTABLE ON THE DRAFT THIS MONTH, AND MAKE (EXTENSIVE) 
COMMENTS ON THE TEXT, IT WOULD NOT ISSUE A FORMAL REPORT. THE 
COMMISSION CANNOT ISSUE A REPORT OUTSIDE OF ITS FORMAL MEETING 
STRUCTURE, AND IT DOES NOT MEET AGAIN UNTIL JUNE. 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) DARMANOVIC IS ALSO AN EXPERIENCED OBSERVER OF 
MONTENEGRIN POLITICS. HE SAW THE SERBIAN LIST AND SNS ISOLATING 
ITSELF BY INSISTING ON AN ETHNICITY-BASED CONSTITUTION, WHEN THE 
GOVERNING PARTIES HAD CLEAR SUPPORT FOR A CIVIC STATE FROM PZP 
AND SNP. HE FORESAW COMPROMISES ON THE CONTENTIOUS PREAMBULAR 
ISSUES, FORESHADOWED BY PRESIDENT VUJANOVIC'S PROPOSALS ON A 
NAME FOR THE PREDOMINANT LANGUAGE, "MONTENEGRIN-SERB."  HE ALSO 
DID NOT SEE PZP GETTING ITS WAY ON EARLY ELECTIONS, AND EXPECTS 
THAT A PROLONGED PUSH FOR SUCH WOULD DRAW A "EUROPEAN" REACTION 
AGAINST MEDOJEVIC. 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE MADE CLEAR EARLY ON ITS DEMANDS 
THAT MONTENEGRO BE CONSTITUTIONALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A "CIVIC" 
STATE, A STANCE ALREADY ACCEPTED BY A 2/3 MAJORITY IN 
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PODGORICA 00000100  003.3 OF 003 
 
 
PARLIAMENT.  THE RULING COALITION IS, UNDERSTANDABLY, NOT 
CONCERNED THAT IT COULD LOSE A PUBLIC REFERENDUM ON THE 
CONSTITUTION (IT WOULD ONLY NEED MAJORITY SUPPORT). IT WOULD 
PREFER HOWEVER A "CONSENSUS" TEXT, ONE THAT GARNERED 54 VOTES OR 
MORE IN PARLIAMENT, TO OBVIATE THE NEED FOR A REFERENDUM. POST 
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTS DPS AND SDP TO GIVE GROUND ON APPOINTMENT 
OF JUDGES AND PERHAPS ON PARLIAMENTARY OVERSIGHT TO GET THE 
NEEDED VOTES FROM THE PZP AND SNP IN THE MODERATE OPPOSITION, 
AND TO MAKE OTHER REFINEMENTS TO THE TEXT TO ENHANCE PROTECTION 
OF MINORITY RIGHTS (E.G., SUPERMAJORITY TO ALTER MINORITY 
PROTECTIONS; A LOWERED THRESHOLD FOR ETHNIC PARTIES TO ENTER 
PARLIAMENT, WHILE ABOLISHING "SET-ASIDE" SEATS; AND THE LIKE). 
WHILE IT IS ISSUES LIKE RELIGION AND THE FLAG THAT HAVE BEEN AT 
THE CENTER OF DEBATE, POST EXPECTS A SERIES OF MODERATING 
COMPROMISES TO BE MADE ON THESE ISSUES. AFTER THE TEXT RETURNS 
TO PARLIAMENT, POST FORESEES SEVERAL MORE WEEKS OF DEBATE AND 
NEGOTIATION BEFORE THE VOTE TO ADOPT THE CONSTITUTION IS TAKEN. 
IF THE VOTE FAILS TO GET 2/3 SUPPORT, THE REQUIRED REFERENDUM 
WILL LIKELY BE HELD IN THE FALL. END COMMENT. 
FERRILL 
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