VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHDL #0286/01 1031637
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131637Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8148

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000286 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR/UBI FOR PDAS VOLKER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MOPPS MARR ECON SENV EI
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR THE APRIL 19-20 VISIT OF EUR PDAS 
KURT VOLKER 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Embassy Dublin eagerly anticipates your visit and 
the opportunity to join your discussions with ranking Irish 
Government officials and others on the full range of 
bilateral and U.S.-EU issues.  Your visit comes at an 
historic moment in U.S.-Irish relations, with the scheduled 
restoration of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive on 
May 8.  Support for the Northern peace process has 
perennially been Embassy Dublin's' highest priority, and we 
have worked closely with the Irish Government and our 
colleagues in Belfast, London, and Washington on the steps 
leading from last October's St. Andrews negotiations to the 
March 26 power-sharing agreement between Sinn Fein and the 
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).  After May 8, the Irish 
Government aims to support the North's transition from the 
peace process to governance through all-island economic 
linkages and revival of the North-South bodies established 
under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.  Opportunities for 
cross-border cooperation dominated Prime Minister (Taoiseach, 
"TEE-shuck") Bertie Ahern's April 4 meeting with DUP leader 
Ian Paisley in Dublin and will also feature in your 
discussion with Michael Collins, Ahern's chief foreign policy 
advisor and the future Irish Ambassador to the United States. 
 
The Domestic Political Backdrop 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Your visit will also take place against the 
political backdrop of Ireland's national elections, for which 
a date has not been set, but which are expected to be held in 
May/June.  Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, who is seeking a third 
consecutive five-year term, and his party, Fianna Fail 
("FEE-na FOYLE"), are campaigning on the strength of 
Ireland's "Celtic Tiger" economic success.  Opposition 
parties have narrowed the polling gap in recent weeks by 
focusing their pre-election conventions on health care 
problems, inflation, and deficient public infrastructure.  In 
terms of immediate U.S. interests in the elections, it is 
unlikely that the current government or an opposition 
coalition would revoke the policy allowing U.S. military 
transits at Shannon Airport (see para 4B).  Irish 
politicians, however, are increasingly vocal about the 
situation of 20,000-50,000 undocumented Irish residents in 
the United States, and they continue to confer with Congress 
and Irish-American groups on legislative options to 
regularize the status of these "illegals." 
 
Ireland and Climate Change 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Your speech on climate change at the Institute of 
European Affairs will be timely, coming on the heels of two 
key Irish Government environmental documents released this 
spring: the White Paper on Energy and the National Climate 
Change Strategy.  The White Paper, published in March, set 
forth the goals of creating an all-island electricity market 
and ensuring that one-third of electricity consumed in the 
economy would come from renewable energy sources by 2020. 
The National Climate Strategy, unveiled on April 3, outlined 
the Government's target of reducing Ireland's greenhouse gas 
emissions by 17 million tons between 2008 and 2012, with 20 
percent of these reductions to derive from carbon credits 
trading.  While Ireland, like the United States, has 
de-linked emissions growth from economic growth, emissions 
have increased to 25 percent above 1990 levels, as compared 
to the country's Kyoto commitment to cut emissions to 13 
percent above the 1990 threshold by 2012.  In this context, 
the Government has welcomed Embassy proposals for bilateral 
cooperation on initiatives focusing on ocean/wave power, 
clean coal technology, and the capture of methane from 
agricultural waste for energy uses.  In fact, the Embassy 
sought, and obtained, reference in the National Climate 
Strategy to opportunities for Irish-U.S. environmental 
cooperation. 
 
 
Discussion Topics with the DFA 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  After your IEA speech, you will meet with 
Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Political Director Rory 
Montgomery, who has suggested the topics below for 
discussion.  DFA Deputy Political Director and International 
Security Policy Chief, Colm O Floinn (O'Flynn), will attend 
the Shannon portion of the meeting. 
 
A) The EU.  Ireland is an upstanding member of the EU, but, 
as a smaller country, seldom takes the lead on EU policies, 
preferring to achieve, and stand behind, consensus among the 
27 Member States.  The Government supports EU enlargement and 
welcomed the addition of Romania and Bulgaria earlier this 
 
year.  Unlike nationals of the ten accession states in 2004, 
however, Romanians and Bulgarians face limits on entry into 
Ireland.  Government interlocutors have suggested the 
possibility of a referendum before year's end on the EU 
Constitutional Treaty, particularly if France does likewise. 
Ireland helped to negotiate the Constitution during its EU 
presidency in 2004 and feels proprietary about the document. 
During and since its EU presidency, Ireland has worked to 
strengthen U.S.-EU ties in overcoming earlier Iraq-related 
tensions, and the Irish take pride in having former Taoiseach 
John Bruton as the EU Ambassador to the United States. 
 
B) Shannon/Bilateral Military Cooperation.  Shannon Airport 
is a key transit point for U.S. troops and materiel bound for 
Iraq and other military theaters.  In 2006, roughly 280,000 
troops passed through Irish airports, and about 5,000 milair 
and charter flights overflew Ireland.  The Government 
supports these revenue-generating transits, even though 
segments of the Irish public oppose USG policies in Iraq and 
the Middle East and suspect that the airport hosts 
extraordinary rendition flights.  Public and parliamentary 
opposition came to the fore with the publication of the 
European Parliament Special Committee report in early 2007 
alleging that 147 rendition-related flights had transited 
Irish airports, an allegation that the Government dismisses. 
Privately, the DFA has asked for maximum USG vigilance 
against incidents that could stoke public sensitivities, such 
as the publicized transit of a convicted, handcuffed Marine 
prisoner through Shannon in 2006. 
 
C) Kosovo/Western Balkans.  Ireland strongly supports UN 
Special Envoy Ahtisaari's proposals for Kosovo's supervised 
independence.  The Irish Government also favors the 
integration of the western Balkans into the EU and 
trans-Atlantic community, pending necessary political reforms 
in the region and, particularly in Serbia's case, greater 
cooperation with ICTY.  In August, Ireland will become the 
"Framework Nation" in a KFOR division in Kosovo that will 
include 270 Irish troops, and the Government therefore feels 
vested in diplomatic approaches to the region's problems. 
 
D) Russia.  Irish-Russian relations are a question mark, and 
your discussions with Political Director Montgomery will be 
an opportunity for the Embassy to garner information on this 
point.  Taoiseach Bertie Ahern apparently has a personal 
interest in Russia, and he reportedly volunteered to make the 
presentation on EU-Russian relations when President Bush met 
with EU leaders in Brussels in February 2005.  Ireland has no 
dependence on Russian oil or gas and relies instead on North 
Sea and UK sources for 90 percent of its energy needs. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Following the discussion with Montgomery, you will 
participate in a DFA-hosted roundtable on a range of other 
issues, for which the DFA has selected interlocutors both 
in-house and from other Government agencies.  A participant 
from the Department of the Environment is expected to address 
Government views on climate change.  The other agenda items 
are as follows: 
 
A) Counterterrorism.  Ireland, which lost six citizens in the 
9/11 attacks and many more in spillover terrorist actions 
during the Northern Ireland Troubles, is supportive of U.S. 
counterterrorism efforts.  In 2005, the Irish Parliament (the 
Dail, "DOYLE") enacted the Criminal Justice (Terrorism 
Offenses) Bill, which enabled Ireland to sign onto all 12 UN 
Conventions on Terrorism and to strengthen powers for asset 
seizures and EU-approved financial sanctions on suspected 
terrorists and financiers.  The Irish Data Protection 
Commissioner, however, criticized USG actions on SWIFT, and 
other Government agencies have not provided interlocutors to 
engage seriously with the Embassy on the issue (a possible 
indication that these agencies disagree with, but do not wish 
to refute officially, the Commissioner's views.)  Moreover, 
the Government has called for the closure of Guantanamo as 
inconsistent with basic human rights. 
 
B) UN/Peacekeeping.  The Irish Government sees the UN as a 
cornerstone of its foreign policy, and, in 2005, Foreign 
Minister Dermot Ahern (no relation to the Taoiseach) served 
as then-UNSYG Koffi Annan's Special Envoy to Europe for UN 
Reform.  Ireland is also a longstanding contributor to UN 
peacekeeping missions, with roughly 800 troops now stationed 
with nine UN missions, including a 300-soldier contingent 
that will finish a UNIMIL tour in Liberia this summer.  This 
contingent will become available for possible future UN 
peacekeeping missions in Africa or for service in a 
Nordic-led division of the EU Battle Group rapid reaction 
force, which Ireland has committed to join in 2008.  As a 
NATO Partnership for Peace member, Ireland has seven military 
personnel in Afghanistan, performing administrative roles 
 
and, soon, ordnance training. 
 
C) The Middle East/Iraq.  Ireland, which has longstanding 
sympathies for the Palestinian cause, has welcomed the 
formation of a Palestinian National Unity Government (NUG) 
and supports EU overtures to the NUG to accept the Quartet 
Principles.  Regarding Lebanon, Ireland joined the original 
UNIFIL force in the 1970s and contributed 150 troops to the 
bolstered UNIFIL mission last summer in the aftermath of the 
Israeli-Hizbollah conflict.  In Iraq, the Government actively 
supports the EU police training mission and, since January, 
has pledged over euro five million in humanitarian 
assistance.  The Government also backs U.S. efforts to end 
sectarian violence, but tends to avoid public discussion of 
Iraqi issues, given public sensitivities and media criticism 
tied to U.S. military transits at Shannon.  DFA counterparts 
have expressed concern about the harmful impact of U.S. 
frustrations in Iraq on U.S. global leadership. 
 
D) Overseas Development Assistance (ODA).  For 2007, the 
Government budgeted euro 800 million for ODA, and the Irish 
public strongly supports the goal of increasing ODA to 0.7 
percent of GNP by 2012.  Irish Aid, the foreign assistance 
arm of the DFA, manages most of its programs in sub-Saharan 
Africa, a focus region for Irish humanitarian efforts since 
the missionary era.  Foreign Minister Ahern has indicated to 
the Embassy that he would like to pursue a higher-profile, 
perhaps international diplomatic role, and he may have his 
sights on African conflict areas, particularly Darfur, which 
he visited last July. 
 
The Ambassador's Dinner 
----------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) For the dinner that the Ambassador plans to hold in 
your honor, we have invited guests who could offer insights 
on all things European and on bilateral ties.  We hope to see 
EU Member State ambassadors, Irish Members of the European 
Parliament, academics/think tankers, Government officials, 
clerics, environmental experts, and media representatives. 
We have also reached out to Irish officials in the EU 
Commission, but work schedules may make their attendance 
unfeasible. 
FOLEY