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Viewing cable 07BRATISLAVA154, RHETORIC IN BRATISLAVA OVERSHADOWS KUBIS IN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07BRATISLAVA154 2007-03-15 17:46 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Bratislava
VZCZCXYZ0009
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSL #0154/01 0741746
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151746Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0770
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 0077
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0627
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0096
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA PRIORITY 0047
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000154 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV YI KOC LO
SUBJECT: RHETORIC IN BRATISLAVA OVERSHADOWS KUBIS IN 
BELGRADE 
 
REF: A. BRATISLAVA 146 
 
     B. STATE 31796 
 
Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for reasons 1.4 b and d. 
 
1. (C) Summary: FM Jan Kubis in Belgrade March 12 told Serb 
leaders that there was no alternative to the Ahtisaari plan 
and that he was confident of EU unity.  Kubis was struck by 
the Serbs' non-aggressive attitude and the lack of mention of 
Russia, though others in the MFA believe this is a tactic 
orchestrated by Russia itself.  Slovak PolDir has 
consultations in Moscow March 15-16 and promised a read-out; 
in turn he would like to know the latest U.S. thinking on 
Russia's stance.  Kubis committed Slovakia to remain silent 
on final status at the March 19 UNSC meeting on Kosovo, and 
asked for advance notice of what the U.S. planned to say. 
Meanwhile, the parliamentary foreign affairs committee 
debated Kosovo final status March 14.  Three parties (SDKU, 
SNS, and KDH) agreed to draft a joint resolution, which 
should be ready for consideration by the foreign affairs 
committee March 22.  Three other parties (Smer, HZDS, and 
SMK) advocate "leaving diplomacy to the diplomats" and 
probably will not support the resolution.  Post launched 
another round of meetings with party leaders to press the 
need for a quick settlement fully supported by Slovakia in 
the EU and UNSC.  We will provide recommendations separately 
regarding phone calls to Slovak politicians, but note that 
Dzurinda's advisors believe Merkel would be the most 
effective interlocutor with Dzurinda.  End summary. 
 
Kubis in Belgrade 
----------------- 
2. (C)  Foreign Minister Jan Kubis told the Ambassador March 
14 that he found Serbian leaders open to his message during 
his March 12 visit.  He told Tadic and Kostunica that there 
was no alternative to the Ahtisaari plan, and that he was 
confident of EU unity in the end.  The Serbian leadership is 
expecting and waiting for the UNSCR on Kosovo, even though 
they don't like it.  Kubis reported that PM Kostunica told 
him with a smile, "I have the impression Kosovo is in 
Slovakia, based on what I see from your country."  Kubis said 
the Serbs were trying to buy time to get a better deal by 
using legal and diplomatic efforts, i.e., lobbying UNSC and 
UNGA members for the most concessions possible.  Kubis told 
the Serbs that Slovakia could be helpful on specific, 
individual points, but would not seek to change the 
fundamentals of the Ahtisaari plan. 
 
Thoughts on Russia's Role 
------------------------- 
3. (C) Kubis said that the Serbian leaders were not 
aggressive.  They did not use strong rhetoric and did not 
mention Russia, which he took to be a good sign.  MFA PolDir 
Miroslav Lajcak (strictly protect) later told us that he was 
more cynical and believed this tactic was orchestrated by 
Moscow.  He characterized the March 13 Russian MFA statement 
as "very bad, very hard."  Lajcak theorized that the Russians 
believe that if they give in now, they will be seen as "a 
joke."  They therefore feel compelled to block the process, 
and will wait until the last possible moment for the U.S. to 
beg them not to do so.  Lajcak will be in Moscow for 
consultations March 15-16 and promised to debrief DCM upon 
his return to Bratislava. (Guidance request:  In turn, we 
would like to share with Lajcak our latest thinking on the 
Russian position.  Please advise.) 
 
Kubis vs. Kasicky 
----------------- 
4. (C) Kubis was livid at Defense Minister Frantisek 
Kasicky's statement during his March 12 press conference with 
visiting Serbian Defense Mininster Stankovic (ref a).  He 
said he phoned Kasicky with a strong message that he should 
not presume to speak for the government on Kosovo because he 
didn't know the state of play.  Kubis is certain he has Prime 
Minister Robert Fico's support on this issue, although he 
still cannot tell us for certain where his boss will come 
out.  Kasicky said he had based his statement based on other 
government positions he had seen in the media.  Lajcak 
speculated that in trying to do what he assumed would please 
PM Fico, Kasicky had been "extremely damaging." (Comment: He 
is right.  Former PM Dzurinda's SDKU has been citing Kasicky 
as supporting the SDKU line.)  According to an MFA desk 
officer who was present at the March 13 meeting between Kubis 
and Stankovic, Kubis tried to set the record straight and 
reiterated the points he had made in Belgrade.  Stankovic 
reportedly responded, "Whatever you finally decide, we won't 
be angry with you." 
 
Kubis on March 19 UNSC Discussion 
--------------------------------- 
5. (C) Per ref b, Ambassador urged Kubis to be either 
supportive of Ahtisaari or silent at the March 19 UNSC 
discussion on Kosovo.  Kubis immediately understood the 
message.  He said that although Slovakia sometimes had 
critical comments on UNMIK reports, Slovakia would say 
nothing about final status negotiations.  Given the expected 
debate on Kosovo in the Slovak parliament March 20, he knows 
what is at stake. (Request: Kubis very much wants to know 
what we will say at the March 19 meeting.  It would be useful 
to have something we could pass to Kubis before he leaves for 
Central Asia March 18.) 
 
Politicians Have a Hey-Day 
-------------------------- 
6. (C) The parliamentary foreign affairs committee met March 
14 to discuss the government's foreign policy priorities for 
2007 (as presented by Kubis) and debate the three draft 
parliamentary resolutions on Kosovo (Kubis was present for 
the first part of this debate, but after two hours had to 
leave).  Former PM and Slovak Christian and Democratic Union 
(SDKU) leader Mikulas Dzurinda said he believed Slovakia 
could move the EU on the Kosovo question, just as it had 
moved the EU position on opening accession talks with 
Croatia.  Slovak National Party (SNS) MP Jozef Rydlo proposed 
that SNS and SDKU consolidate their proposals into one united 
statement that could be accepted by all parliamentary 
parties.  Christian Democrat Movement chair Pavol Hrusovsky 
said that Slovakia must never accept an agreement that Serbia 
does not agree to, emphasizing that being a responsible UNSC 
member meant, at a minimum, abstaining.  At the end of a 
two-hour long heated discussion, SNS, SDKU, and the Christian 
Democratic Movement (KDH) agreed to form a drafting committee 
to work over the weekend on a consolidated resolution that 
would be debated in the plenary session that begins March 20. 
 Dzurinda advisor Milan Jezovica told DCM that he expected 
the drafting exercise to produce a resolution weaker than the 
current SDKU draft.  He said all agree the resolution would 
not be binding, at least from a legal perspective. 
 
Not All is Lost 
--------------- 
7. (C) Smer MP Juraj Horvath stated simply and firmly that 
parliament had no business discussing the issue, let alone 
dictating what should be done.  He said Smer's position was 
to leave diplomacy to the diplomats at the MFA.  MP and 
former FM Zdenka Kramplova of the Movement for a Democratic 
Slovakia (HZDS) said her party would not join onto the 
drafting effort at this time, as the government and not the 
parliament was responsible for foreign policy.  Hungarian 
Coalition Party (SMK) MP Jozef Berenyi criticized politicians 
use of Kosovo to inflame anti-Hungarian sentiments among 
Slovaks, and said Slovakia must unite with other EU countries 
to support Ahtisaari's plan. 
 
Comment: Next steps 
------------------- 
8. (C) Following the March 14 debate, Post launched another 
round of consultations with political party insiders to once 
again press on the need for a quick settlement fully 
supported by Slovakia in the EU and UNSC.  We believe it is 
necessary to shore up the resolve of Smer, HZDS, and SMK, and 
express appreciation for the responsible stances they are 
taking on this issue.  Likewise, it is necessary to continue 
expressing to members of SDKU, KDH, and SNS that their 
rhetoric designed for internal political gain damages both 
their image abroad and, more importantly, threatens stability 
in the Balkans.  During discussions March 15, SMK reiterated 
its intention to continue expressing full support for 
Ahtisaari and seek EU unity.  KDH MP Fronc expressed grave 
misgivings about Kosovo independence, but listened 
attentively to our arguments and promised to discuss the 
issue within the party.  He said the parties would definitely 
bring a resolution to the floor, but assured us it would be 
non-binding.  Jezovica said the most effective foreign 
overture to Dzurinda to moderate his stance would come from 
Chancellor Merkel, if she is so inclined. 
 
9. (C) Dzurinda told media that he expects to have a 
parliamentary resolution draft ready for consideration by the 
foreign affairs committee March 22, though it is still 
unclear what it will say.  Nor is it clear when exactly it 
will be on the plenary agenda, as Speaker Pavol Paska (Smer) 
has been reluctant to allow the debate and could use 
procedural tactics to delay.  PM Fico told the Ambassador 
that Smer, HZDS, and SMK had enough votes to block a 
resolution supported by SNS, SDKU, and KDH.  However, that 
presumes that all MPs show up when they are supposed to and 
vote strictly along party lines.  FM Kubis has said privately 
he does not fear a parliamentary debate or even a resolution, 
as long as it is not binding and does not say Slovakia should 
oppose any solution to which the Serbs do not agree.  He 
views it as "letting off steam."  However, it could have the 
effect of making Fico feel that he has been boxed into a 
corner if it leads to an outpouring of public opinion against 
the Ahtisaari plan for final status.  Our message to all 
leaders is that Slovakia cannot manifest its concern for the 
Serbs or the desire to score political points through an 
abstention at the UNSC.  Anything other than a "yes" would 
damage the country's interests, while doing nothing for the 
Serbs. 
VALLEE