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RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 5913

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000105 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/CM, DRL/IRF AND INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  2/15/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF CH
SUBJECT: CAN 300 MILLION CHINESE BELIEVERS BE WRONG? 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Mary Tarnowka , Section Chief, Political/Economic 
Section , U.S. Consulate Shanghai. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  One of the authors of a new 
government-sponsored survey on spirituality in China downplayed 
the reported findings that the number of religious believers in 
China could be as high as 300 million.  Shanghai Academy of 
Social Sciences (SASS) Vice President Tong Shijun told Poloff in 
a meeting on February 13 that the survey results were premature 
and the results would be adjusted.  One of the problems of the 
survey was that many individuals who identified themselves as 
religious were in fact believers in Communism and Confucianism. 
The survey was part of a three-year research project on 
contemporary Chinese life, which should be completed in March. 
Tong said the goal of the study was to provide the government 
with a better understanding of modern Chinese society to enable 
it to adjust its policies.  Marxism was still relevant and only 
needed to be updated to meet the demands of modern Chinese 
society.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
300 Million Religious Believers? 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) According to a report in the February 7 edition of the 
English-language China Daily, a new government-sponsored survey 
indicated that the number of religious believers in China was 
three times more than the official estimate.  The survey was 
conducted by SASS Vice President Tong Shijun and East China 
Normal University Professor Liu Zhongyu as a part of a larger 
study on contemporary Chinese life.  The professors interviewed 
approximately 4,500 people about their religious beliefs. 
Thirty-one percent of those polled said that they were 
religious.  Of the 66 percent practiced Buddhism, Daoism or 
Chinese folk religions.  Twelve percent said that they were 
Christian.  It is not clear how the remaining 22 percent 
identified themselves.  Of the religions, 62 percent were 
between the ages of 16 to 39, while 9.6 percent were 55 years or 
older.  When applied to the 1.3 billion people of China, the 
survey results indicated that as many as 300 million people in 
China were religious. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In the article, Professor Liu attributed the increase 
in the number of believers to the religious freedom enjoyed in 
China and the social problems confronting Chinese people.  In a 
February 8 Washington Post article, Liu also pointed to the 
growth in Chinese population as a factor in the increase of 
religious adherents.  The official estimate of religious 
believers is 100 million, which has not been adjusted since the 
1960s.  (Note: Despite repeated attempts, Poloff was unable to 
contact Liu to discuss the survey.  End Note.) 
 
 
 
--------------------- 
 
Adjusting the Numbers 
 
--------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4.  (C)  On February 13, Poloff met with Shanghai Academy of 
Social Sciences (SASS) Vice President and Deputy Party Secretary 
Tong Shijun to discuss the survey.  Tong oversees the entire 
research project on contemporary Chinese life and was involved 
in the survey.  He downplayed the survey results and said that 
the 300 million figure was misleading.  The figures quoted in 
the media were preliminary results and had yet to be analyzed by 
experts.  The confusion came when reporters who attended a 
conference about the survey last October at East China Normal 
University misinterpreted the discussions of the survey results 
 
SHANGHAI 00000105  002 OF 003 
 
 
as indicating the results had already been finalized. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) Academics involved in the project were now reviewing the 
raw data collected during the survey and would adjust the 
figures.  The Ministry of Education also needed to review the 
information before it was released and would also have a chance 
to adjust the figures.  Tong was in charge of the review process 
and said the final results would be released in March of this 
year.  He personally did not believe that the final figure of 
religious believers in China would be 300 million.  He also 
noted that the survey had many flaws, including asking too many 
questions, many of which were difficult for people to understand. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C) Tong added that the Chinese definition of religion was 
also very broad.  Many people in China practiced religion 
sporadically, visiting temples during holidays and praying to 
ancestors.  The definition of spirituality in China also was not 
as strict as in the West, which emphasized being a part of an 
organized religious community and attending religious services. 
Non-religious ethical systems such as Confucianism and Communism 
also played roles in society similar to religious movements. 
For example, Tong had interviewed an elderly woman who was a 
member of the Communist party for the survey.  When he asked the 
woman if she was religious, she said yes.  A surprised Tong told 
her that she could not be religious because she was a communist. 
 She replied that communism was a type of religion. 
 
 
 
---------------- 
 
Updating Marxism 
 
---------------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) Noting that it was too early to predict what the 
project's conclusions would be, Tong said that the data appeared 
to point to two broad conclusions.  First, Chinese society was 
becoming more pluralistic.  Traditional socialism, Marxism and 
communism were becoming less influential as Chinese people began 
to adopt different belief systems.  Second, religious belief had 
become more attractive as society became more market-oriented 
and life became more difficult.  He said that the Chinese 
government had underestimated the importance of religion in the 
past.  There was a change in the 1990's and the government was 
now conducting various studies on the role of religion in 
society.  While there were extremist movements such as Falun 
Gong, religion was not inherently bad and could play a useful 
role in society.  The Chinese government now realized that it 
needed to take religion into account as it strove to build 
socialism. 
 
 
 
¶8.  (C) Tong warned against over-emphasizing the role of 
religion and noted that non-religious ethical systems, mainly 
Confucianism, were still much more influential in China than 
religious movements.  The study only showed that religion was 
becoming more important.  Tong was not surprised that people 
were turning more to religion.  It was very difficult to 
practice Confucianism since it relied on practitioners to be 
self-disciplined and actively engaged in improving society. 
Religion, on the other hand, emphasized the role of a governing 
deity that decided people's fate.  According to Tong, believers 
were more concerned with the afterlife and not as involved in 
improving earthly society. 
 
 
 
¶9.  (C) Tong added that since China was a traditionally 
Confucian society it was well suited to Marxism, which also 
emphasized the importance of self-discipline and harmony.  The 
Chinese government had not given up on Marxism and while some 
versions of Marxism were out-dated, Marxism itself was still 
relevant.  It was important to update and adjust Marxism to fit 
the demands of society.  The first step in this process was to 
better understand society.  Tong hoped the project would play a 
 
SHANGHAI 00000105  003 OF 003 
 
 
role in this process and provide the government with a more 
comprehensive picture of modern society. 
JARRETT