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Viewing cable 06LUANDA1298, ANGOLA SETS 2008 FOR LEGISLATIVE AND 2009 FOR

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LUANDA1298 2006-12-26 08:05 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Luanda
VZCZCXRO3561
RR RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLU #1298/01 3600805
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 260805Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY LUANDA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3550
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 001298 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2031 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AO
SUBJECT: ANGOLA SETS 2008 FOR LEGISLATIVE AND 2009 FOR 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: Charge d'affaires Francisco J. Fernandez, 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Angola's highest political consultative body, 
the Council of the Republic, met on December 20 and announced 
legislative elections for 2008 and presidential elections a 
year later.  This announcement confirms speculation that the 
government will not meet its previously stated goal of 
holding elections in 2007 and effectively ends speculation 
that presidential and legislative elections might occur 
simultaneously. The 23 member council, comprised of the 
leaders of the three branches of government, opposition party 
chiefs and civil society leaders, last met in 2004, when it 
announced elections for 2006.  During his opening speech, 
President dos Santos stated that with registration underway, 
the electoral process was practically irreversible.  The 
president's speech and council deliberations were made public 
in real time, a first for Angola, and a positive step towards 
greater transparency. The next step is to make the 
recommendation official, something that would then give all 
players a real electoral timetable.  USG efforts should now 
focus on getting the Angolans to accept this timetable, and 
thus avoid the years of speculation and uncertainty that 
followed the 2004 announcement when no action to make the 
date official was taken.  END SUMMARY 
 
Process practically irreversible despite new timeline 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2. (U) President dos Santos convened the Conselho da 
Republica on December 20th to discuss a timeline for 
elections. Dos Santos quickly laid out topics of discussion 
during his opening remarks, which were publicized in print 
and broadcast news, a first for Angola.  Focus was kept on 
the need to develop new plans for the future; only slight 
mention was given to  'various constraints' that affected 
the government's ability to hold elections originally planned 
for 2006. He also pointed out that presidential and 
legislative elections should not be simultaneous, as the 
constitution calls for the former every five years and the 
latter every four.  He ended with the sentiment that the 
electoral process has become 'practically irreversible' and 
that 'within in a few years' the government will be 
legitimized through free, transparent, and safe elections. 
 
3. (U) Following the closed-door session, spokesperson 
Augusto Carneiro announced the Conselho's unanimous 
recommendation to hold Legislative elections in the 
May - August 2008 timeframe, and majority support for the 
recommendation to hold Presidential elections during the same 
time period in 2009.  Although the bulk of voter registration 
is expected conclude on 15 June 2007 the task does not end 
there, explained Virgilio Fontes Pereira, Chairman of the 
Interministerial Commission for the Electoral Process (CIPE), 
speaking to the press after the meeting.  Pereira pointed out 
that the preparation, publication, and final certification of 
voter lists, as required by electoral law, is not likely to 
be finalized before November 2007.  As the President is 
required to give a minimum 90 days notice when calling 
elections, Pereira stated that he sees no possibility of 
elections in 2007. 
 
Secretive and controversial history 
 
SIPDIS 
----------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) The Conselho da Republica, a consultative body 
comprised of opposition leaders, presidential nominees, and 
key government figures, by law must meet at least twice per 
year.  Despite this requirement, the Conselho was last 
convened in July 2004, when it recommended that elections be 
held in 2006.  This session was marked by controversy when 
MP Fulupinga Landu Victor, President of the PDP-ANA party, 
broke ranks.  For the first time in Conselho history he 
revealed that the vote had not been unanimous, that during 
contentious discussion many demanded elections in 2005.  He 
was shot dead in a robbery 6 hours later, and the fact that 
the historically secretive Conselho has not met since 
fostered many conspiracy theories.  The broadcast of dos 
Santos's opening speech and the open admission at the 
post-meeting press conference that one of the votes had not 
been unanimous is seen by many as progress towards government 
openness. 
 
USG Next Steps 
-------------- 
 
5. (C)  In 2004, the Council called for elections in 2006, 
but there was no move to make the date official. 
International efforts should now be focused on getting the 
government to codify the Council's recommendations and set 
 
LUANDA 00001298  002 OF 002 
 
 
firm dates for the elections.  Unless these dates are 
established, we run the risk of repeating the years of 
uncertainty that proceeded the last announcement.  We should 
take advantage of the openness demonstrated in the public 
release of information regarding the council's deliberations 
to press for a firm electoral date. We can also push for the 
two elections to be held simultaneously or at least in the 
same year, but finally setting a date for the elections is a 
more pressing priority. 
 
6. (C) COMMENT: Per electoral law, the President of the 
Republic is required to meet with the Council of the Republic 
prior to setting election dates, but their role is merely to 
recommend action.  Now the President, the Council of 
Ministers and the National Electoral Council need to make the 
dates official.  Recent polls by IRI (septel) show that the 
ruling MPLA has overwhelming support from the electorate, and 
government funding of opposition parties (the parties' most 
important, and often sole, revenue source) is linked to 
electoral results.  Thus, more time gives the parties a 
better chance to consolidate their electoral base.  As far as 
the presidential elections, the delay gives all parties more 
time to define who will be on the ticket and work out their 
internal conflicts.  Thus, while the majority of the 
electorate wants simultaneous presidential and legislative 
elections, the political parties seem to have a slightly 
different perception.  End comment. 
 
FERNANDEZ