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OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1351/01 3390505
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 050505Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3952
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0752
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001351 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT:  ELECTION DAY CALM, PRESIDENT IN THE LEAD 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00001351  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
REFTEL:  ANTANANARIVO 1348 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (U)  SUMMARY:  A calm and relatively orderly presidential 
election December 3 was marred by just one incident of ballot 
tampering in the south.  Turnout appears to have been strong and 
very preliminary results have President Marc Ravalomanana in the 
lead, with over 50 percent of the vote, despite strong regional 
results for Roland Ratsiraka and Jean Lahiniriko.  According to 
Embassy observers, most polling station officials distinguished 
themselves despite complex voting rules, imperfect electoral lists, 
and inadequate training.  All attention now focuses on vote 
tabulation -- it could be three weeks or more before the High 
Constitutional Court certifies official results.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CALM PREVAILS DECEMBER 3 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Madagascar exhaled late December 3 when a calm election 
day wound down and ballot counting began.  Despite heavy afternoon 
rain in Antananarivo and several coastal cities, participation 
appears to have been between 55 and 65 percent of registered voters. 
 Preliminary results have President Ravalomanana in a comfortable 
lead with nearly 60 percent of votes counted, but the early returns 
are weighted to Ravalomanana's urban strongholds, making it still 
too soon to assure the 50 percent he needs to avoid a second round 
run-off.  Roland Ratsiraka, nephew of the last President, made a 
strong showing in his home province of Tamatave and in Diego Suarez, 
while former Assembly Speaker Jean Lahiniriko did well in his native 
Tulear.  Herizo Razafimhaleo, who appeared to be the lead challenger 
at the end of the campaign, appears to have had a disappointing 
showing.  The lone woman in the field, Elia Ravelomanantsoa, is 
running in sixth place, but with less than two percent of the vote. 
Of the eight candidates tallying behind her, two or three may have 
literally no votes as their ballots were not present in the polling 
stations.  Because of Madagascar's complicated multiple ballot 
system, there was variance in the number of candidates whose ballots 
were available at various polling stations, from 12 down to a low of 
¶8.  According to national television reports,  four candidates, 
namely Manandafy Rakotonirina, Monja Roindefo, Gen Razakarimanana, 
and Philippe Tsiranana did not have ballot papers and voters 
actually had to choose between ten candidates. 
 
Tulear Incident An Exception 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U)  Of more than 17,500 polling stations, only one major 
incident was reported, in Tulear, where vandals destroyed three 
ballot boxes.  The district office quickly replaced the boxes so the 
remaining voters could participate.  Police are investigating, and 
eight suspects have been arrested.  The Embassy's observer teams in 
17 of Madagascar's 22 regions reported no other incidents of vote 
tampering at the over 400 polling stations they visited in total. 
News outlets and other observer teams reported similarly calm 
atmospherics. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  In general, observers reported polling station officials 
to be serious and professional, but also lacking in adequate 
training.  Madagascar's multiple ballot system and complex 
regulations led to minor inconsistencies in implementation as well 
as occasional delays.  Given significant inaccuracies in voter 
rolls, special provisions allowed voters to obtain an affidavit or 
to vote with two witnesses to their identity to avoid being 
disenfranchised.  Despite these provisions, a few polling stations 
are reported to have turned away as many as ten percent of 
prospective voters.  Post-election complaints about the electoral 
lists continue to discomfit the European Union for their two million 
euro investment, but such problems were overwhelmingly procedural; 
there has been no evidence to date of any systematic effort to 
disadvantage any particular candidates. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  On Monday, December 4, the Ambassador visited the counting 
center at the Ministry of the Interior, which had been given primary 
responsibility for the conduct of these elections.  Interior 
Minister Rabemananjara welcomed the Ambassador and showed him the 
facilities his Ministry was offering for observers, journalists and 
civil society to witness the process to assure its transparency. 
 
Take A Deep Breath: The Vote Count 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Before congratulating anyone too early, Malagasy and 
international observers alike note election day was equally calm in 
2001 before the onset of the governance crisis.  The real test comes 
 
ANTANANARI 00001351  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
as results slowly trickle in from 17,500 polling stations to 116 
district offices, and from there to the High Constitutional Court. 
During the three weeks it may take for any official declaration, 
Post expects several candidates and NGOs to publicize their own 
results.  Some opposition candidates will no doubt continue to 
challenge the electoral process, blame their poor showing on GOM 
malfeasance, and register numerous official complaints. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  The Ambassador will continue to make two simple points 
with the local media and interlocutors:  1) Our expectation that, if 
the results warrant a second round run-off, it will be held as 
required under Malagasy law; and 2) Any candidate who has not 
prevailed should play a peaceful and constructive role in the 
aftermath of the election, be it in opposition to the new government 
or elsewhere in society. 
 
COMMENT:  U.S. ROLE HELPFUL 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Embassy teams and our international colleagues reported a 
significant presence of Malagasy NGO observers from the "CNOE" 
network that was funded and trained by the United States Government 
through the National Democratic Institute.  Their presence on 
election day and during results tabulation is making an important 
contribution to the transparency and thus the credibility of this 
election. 
 
MCGEE