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2006-11-04 01:57:00
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Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
06MEXICO5992
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TAGS: ECON FBI DHS PAS DAO CONS OPAD DCM POL AID
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 006278 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016 
TAGS: ECON FBI DHS PAS DAO CONS OPAD DCM POL AID
SUBJECT: THE RADICALIZATION OF AMLO? 
 REF: MEXICO 05992 
 
Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR ALAN MELTZER, REASON 
S: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) After virtually two weeks of silence, defeated 
presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) 
took a more radical line in a speech to supporters of the 
Popular Assembly for the People of Oaxaca (APPO), backing the 
protests in Oaxaca and criticizing President Fox's decision 
to send in federal forces.  He demanded Oaxaca Governor 
Ulises Ruiz's resignation and the "withdrawal of army troops 
disguised as police."  He also linked the Oaxaca crisis to a 
"PAN-PRI conspiracy" to put Calderon in office.  As the first 
high-profile political figure to stridently criticize the 
deployment of federal forces to Oaxaca, AMLO's move will 
likely deepen internal Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) 
fissures and heighten rumors of an AMLO-APPO union.  Finally, 
at first glance, it appears the "cabinet" AMLO announced on 
November 3 is composed more of AMLO loyalists (and former 
members of his mayoral cabinet) than PRD heavyweights, 
offering additional evidence that the mainstream PRD 
leadership may be trying to put space between the party and 
its former candidate.  End summary. 
 
AMLO backs Oaxaca protests 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On October 31, AMLO delivered a well-received speech 
to a Mexico City crowd of over 2,000 persons at a 
pre-scheduled APPO rally, which was to be the starting point 
for a march on Los Pinos.  In his speech, AMLO called for the 
removal of Oaxaca Governor Ruiz and described the 
government's deployment of the PFP to Oaxaca as a "violent 
military occupation" that would worsen the political and 
social crisis in the region.  He also called on the Senate to 
use its powers to demand Ruiz's resignation.  He accused the 
PAN and PRI "mafia" of striking a deal to have Calderon sworn 
in as President and said that the people of Oaxaca were 
paying for this conspiracy with their blood.  AMLO shared the 
stage with APPO leaders, National Democratic Convention (NDC) 
activists, and United Progressive Front (PRD-PT-Convergencia 
coalition) politicians. 
 
APPO support for AMLO? 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Oddly, an APPO announcer repeatedly interrupted the 
speech of PRD co-founder Porfirio Munoz Ledo -- who preceded 
AMLO -- calling on APPO supporters to begin their march to 
Los Pinos.  While many APPO supporters left during Munoz 
Ledo's presentation, a sizable number remained to hear AMLO. 
Local newspapers El Universal and Cronica reported that AMLO 
had offered to APPO leaders help lead the march, but he was 
"respectfully" turned down. 
 
¶4. (C) PRD member Saul Escobar downplayed to poloff the 
possibility that highly doubts that there would be a 
convergence between APPO protests and AMLO's civil 
disobedience activities.  He told poloff that APPO was very 
jealous of its independence and distrustful of political 
parties and the APPO's goals and objectives were distinct 
from those of the United Progressive Front.  He said that in 
any event, AMLO had other plans in mind.  After announcing 
his "cabinet" today (see below), AMLO will tour the country, 
before returning to Mexico City by November 20 for his 
self-styled "inauguration." 
 
A Low Profile "Cabinet" for a High Profile "President" 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Late on November 3, AMLO announced the members of 
the "cabinet" that will support him during his so-called 
"legitimate presidency."  Its members include former SRE 
Undersecretary (and Ambassador to Jamaica, Uruguay and 
Norway) Gustavo Iruega as Secretary of Foreign Relations, 
journalist and former Deputy Jose Agustin Ortiz as Secretary 
of Political Relations, and at least a half-dozen former 
Mexico City officials/AMLO loyalists.  At first glance, it 
appears there are few mainstream PRD heavyweights among the 
 
MEXICO 00006278  002 OF 002 
 
 
names, although respected AMLO advisors Rogelio Ramirez de la 
O and Jose Maria Perez Gay will belong to a small, 
presidential advisory council. 
 
Comment: A Leader Looking for a Movement? 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Although it is too soon to draw any firm conclusions 
about AMLO's latest tactics, it is curious that he decided to 
make his first major public appearance at an APPO rally after 
two weeks of self-imposed silence.  One interpretation is 
that in the wake of the defeat of his candidate in the 
Tabasco gubernatorial race (reftel), he is increasingly a 
leader looking for a movement, hoping to piggyback on APPO's 
perceived momentum.  His strident criticism of the deployment 
of federal forces to Oaxaca, and his association with APPO, 
suggests an increasingly anti-establishment tilt.  If this 
interpretation is correct, the PRD's day of reckoning may be 
drawing nearer.  Party moderates such as Zacatecas Governor 
Amalia Garcia and Michoacan Governor Lazaro Cardenas, have 
already opened lines of communication to the incoming 
administration.  Likewise, Chiapas Governor-elect Juan 
Sabines (PRD) announced he would work with Calderon and would 
not attend AMLO's November 20 "inauguration."  With the most 
moderate PRD leaders committed to working within the system, 
and with AMLO operating increasingly outside of it, the day 
on which mainstream PRDistas will be required to choose sides 
may be drawing nearer. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
GARZA