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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OSAKA KOBE 000576 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: TESTING ABE: BY-ELECTION IN OSAKA 9TH DISTRICT 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Fast on the heels of the Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP) Presidential election that launched the Abe 
Cabinet on September 26, Osaka is host to the first 
skirmish in a long Japanese political season leading to 
unified local elections next April and culminating in 
next July's Diet Upper House races.  This will be the 
first test of the Abe Cabinet's electoral strategy in 
an opposition stronghold.  Both the ruling coalition 
and opposition parties are devoting their full 
attention to turning the electoral tide in their favor 
next year by making their mark in this previously 
scheduled Lower House by-election in Osaka's 9th 
District, to replace LDP lawmaker Takeshi Nishida, who 
passed away after his election last fall.  October 11 
marked the official start of campaigning as the 
candidates were formally announced.  Party leaders and 
heavy-hitters continue to make the rounds in the 
district, including scheduled visits by PM Abe on 
October 15 and former PM Koizumi on the 16th to mark 
the climax of the race. 
 
------------------- 
CLASH OF THE TITANS 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The outcome of this race is important for the 
psychic victory and bragging rights it will give either 
PM Shinzo Abe or opposition Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ) strongman Ichiro Ozawa.  All parties and pundits 
see this race as a harbinger of which party will 
prevail in next year's Upper House elections -- and 
since both Abe and Ozawa are staking their reputations 
on this race, many view this election as a measure of 
the lifespan of the Abe Cabinet and the viability of 
the DPJ as an effective opposition party.  Given that 
the conventional wisdom holds that it is time for the 
electoral ?balance? to shift away from the LDP and that 
this seat is considered ?winnable? by the DPJ, the 
Democrats have more to lose if the LDP keeps the seat. 
The outcome hinges on LDP Secretary General Hidenao 
Nakagawa's election strategy, and whether junior 
coalition partner New Komeito has enough organizational 
muscle to make new inroads in neighborhoods in which it 
has not been successful in the past.  If not, DPJ will 
have put a dent in Abe's strong beginning and 
successfully test marketed its campaign messages for 
the Upper House elections. 
 
-------------- 
THE CANDIDATES 
-------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Although the race is largely seen as a fight 
between the leaders of the ruling coalition and the 
opposition, politics remains local in the 9th District 
and personalities still matter.  The half-million 
member district, a bed-town to the north of Osaka City, 
is made up predominantly of young and middle-aged white 
collar commuters.  43-year-old Nobumori Otani (DPJ) 
represented this district for two terms until last 
year's electoral rout, and is from Ibaraki City, the 
population center of the district.  The George 
Washington University-educated protege of DPJ Secretary 
General_Yukio Hatoyama came out strong and fast in his 
attempt to recapture his old seat and he commands an 
early lead in the polls.  A pro-American centrist 
candidate well known to the Consulate, he commented to 
poloff that he is running on "pocketbook issues" such 
as problems with healthcare insurance, the viability of 
the Japanese pension system, growing economic 
inequalities, and a dissatisfaction with the economic 
reforms under Koizumi. 
 
¶4. (SBU) LDP candidate Kenji Harada, a 58-year-old 
second-generation politician whose father is a former 
political rival of the late Nishida, started his 
campaign late after the LDP Osaka Chapter and Party 
headquarters bickered over whether to accept his 
candidacy.  Harada is from the smaller town of Minoo 
and referred to as an ?outsider? by people in Ibaraki. 
Harada was booed during a speech warming up for the LDP 
 
OSAKA KOBE 00000576  002 OF 002 
 
 
Presidential candidates visiting Ibaraki in September. 
He is depending on Abe's coattails, the organizational 
support of Nakagawa and the LDP machine and, according 
to campaign manager and Dietmember from the neighboring 
8th District Takashi Otsuka, Komeito's highly 
disciplined institutional voters.  Since Osaka business 
organizations are loath to provide campaign 
contributions to political parties, they have told us 
they are under great pressure from the LDP to provide 
in-kind support in getting out the vote and offering 
free logistical services to the campaigners.  His joint 
LDP-Komeito campaign headquarters sports glitzy 
displays of campaign slogans and photographs and 
personal messages from the Cabinet.  Following the DPRK 
announcement that it had conducted a nuclear test on 
Monday, Secretary General Nakagawa asked voters to not 
?send the wrong message to North Korea? by dealing a 
defeat to the LDP. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Harada campaign claims to be closing in on 
Otani at the halfway point in the campaign, and poised 
to overcome him, but polls have not been published yet. 
A senior LDP Dietmember from Osaka separately confirmed 
to us that he felt increasingly confident that -- 
largely thanks to Komeito -Q Harada would emerge the 
winner.  Nonetheless, it is still Otani's race to lose 
at this point. 
 
RUSSEL