VZCZCXRO7042
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #2065 2851224
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 121224Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0166
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 002065 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC - DAMON WILSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2011 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: THE RIGHT ON WHAT'S WRONG WITH ORBAN 
 
REF: BUDAPEST 2048 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Ambassador Foley's dinner for visiting 
Hungarian-American Coalition President Maximilian Teleki 
highlighted questions, concerns, and criticism regarding 
FIDESZ leader Viktor Orban from traditional supporters. 
 
¶2.  (C) Center-right commentator Istvan Stumpf candidly noted 
that "Viktor has made so many big mistakes" in the past year, 
particularly in losing the national elections in April and in 
failing to reach an accommodation with the Hungarian 
Democratic Forum (MDF) in order to unite the opposition. 
Many see his subsequent tactics, including reftel calls for a 
"government of experts," as directed toward the fundamental 
goal of avenging his electoral loss whatever the 
consequences.  Although Stumpf minimized constitutional 
questions surrounding the proposal, he flatly stated that the 
idea has "no chance" of success. 
 
¶3.  (C) Orban's decision not to speak in Parliament and then 
to send demonstrators home after the confidence vote October 
6 remains unexplained and to many inexplicable.  Anita Orban 
(no relation), Director of the International Center for 
Democratic Transition (ICDT), commented that she "knew all 
along" the demonstration would be "a bust" because the FIDESZ 
leadership is "full of hot air."  Indeed, Friday's crowds, 
estimated at 70,000, fell far short of FIDESZ's 
pre-parliamentary debate prediction of 300,000.  Our sources 
across the political spectrum tell us that in years past 
Orban could have drawn far more people with far less effort. 
 
¶4.  (C) Anita Orban continued that FIDESZ's claims to have 
won a "historic victory" in the October 1 local elections 
were right, but for the wrong reasons.  She believes the 
election results will usher in a new generation of party 
leaders with independent power bases but a vested interest in 
cooperating with the central government to ensure access to 
funding - particularly given reports from academic observers 
regarding FIDESZ's large campaign debts.  She believes this 
trend will ultimately make FIDESZ "a bottom-up rather than a 
top-down party." 
 
¶5.  (C) Stumpf agreed, noting that "October 2" would have 
been the best time for Orban to move on, thus allowing FIDESZ 
to make a clean break.  As it stands now, Stumpf believes 
Orban may never again be FIDESZ's candidate for Prime 
Minister.  Although he might be better suited to the 
Presidency, which would give him more rhetorical than 
practical responsibility, Stumpf suggested, perhaps the best 
place for him might be Brussels, where his role in the 
European Peoples' Party (EPP) could be used to move him from 
the domestic political spotlight. 
 
¶6.  (C) Others within FIDESZ agree.  Debrecen Mayor Lajos 
Kosa has candidly indicated his interest in "replacing Orban 
as John Major replaced Margaret Thatcher," emphasizing the 
importance of being seen as Orban's heir rather than his 
deposer given his personal following. 
 
¶7.  (C) In the meantime, some in the party are keeping their 
distance from Orban.  FIDESZ insiders have commented that 
Orban's recent appearances have been without the party 
leadership arrayed behind him, and reports of serious 
disagreements within the party regarding the protests 
continue.  His recent appearances in an armored-plated SUV 
with German plates, reportedly provided by an unnamed donor 
in Germany, have also raised eyebrows. 
 
¶8.  (C) Comment: Orban's demise has been often predicted but 
never realized.  Political analyst Krisztian Szabados 
compares Orban to a rock star whose fan base "will accept 
wild inconsistency as long as he's not boring."  Even Deputy 
Minister of Culture and Education Katalin Bogjai admits that 
her mother "prayed for Orban."  As she noted, he has always 
given rise to animosity or adoration but never ambivalence. 
"To be either the Messiah or the Devil," she concluded, "is 
not good for him ... and not healthy for Hungary."  End 
Comment. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FOLEY