VZCZCXRO4505
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1186/01 2921344
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191344Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3742
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0712
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 001186 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/E, INR/AA, INR/B and DRL 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT:  PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES SET IN MADAGASCAR 
 
REF:  A) ANTANANARIVO 001142 
 
B) ANTANANARIVO 001136 
C) ANTANANARIVO 000649 
D) ANTANANARIVO 000464 
 
ANTANANARI 00001186  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  On October 18, Madagascar's High Constitutional 
Court (HCC) officially approved 14 out of 18 candidates for the 
upcoming December 3 presidential election.  The HCC rejected 
controversial candidate Pierrot Rajaonarivelo because his 
application did not comply with Malagasy law regarding the 
certification of his signature; the other three rejected candidates 
had not paid the registration fee.  At this point, President 
Ravalomanana remains the clear front-runner with only one or two 
others plausibly able to develop a national following to be 
considered serious contenders in the upcoming election.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The HCC President announced that the electoral campaign 
will start on November 12 and will end on December 2 at 7:00 am.  On 
December 3, polling stations should open at 7:00 am and close at 
6:00 pm.  Post offers the following initial thumbnail information on 
the 14 candidates, listed roughly in order of political influence: 
 
a) President Marc RAVALOMANANA, age 57, is up for reelection after a 
hotly contested election in 2002.  He has said that he plans to 
continue his work to date, particularly the implementation of the 
Madagascar Action Plan (MAP) for development.  A wealthy self-made 
businessman, he hails from the highlands and was formerly Mayor of 
Antananarivo, but his support base is national in scope. 
 
b) Jean LAHINIRIKO, in his early 50's, is the former President of 
the National Assembly.  Once a member of President Ravalomanana's "I 
Love Madagascar" (TIM) political party, he resigned from TIM earlier 
this year after being ousted from his position at the National 
Assembly due to internal dissension within the TIM party and his 
public criticism of the President.  Hailing from the coastal city of 
Tulear, his platform focuses generally on national amnesty for the 
2002 election crisis, the fight against terrorism and improving the 
standard of living of the Malagasy people. 
 
c) Norbert Lala RATSIRAHONANA, in his late 50's, is currently the 
president of the AVI political party.  Originally from Antananarivo, 
his former posts include President of the HCC, Chief of State, 
Advisor to President Ravalomanana, and Itinerant Ambassador.  His 
platform will be a continuation of what he started in 1996 as acting 
Head of State after the impeachment of President Zafy -- namely, 
negotiations with the IMF and the World Bank, respect for human 
rights, democracy, and good governance -- with a new emphasis on 
nation-wide economic development and the fight against terrorism. 
 
d) Pety RAKOTONIAINA, in his early 40's, is currently the mayor of 
the City of Fianarantsoa.  Formerly an influential supporter of 
Ravalomanana, Pety helped the President win the key highland 
province of Fianarantsoa in the 2002 crisis.  Pety left his senior 
post at the MFM party in 2005 to create his own competing political 
association, TAMBATRA.  Now known for his vocal criticism of 
President Ravalomanana, his platform focuses generally on improving 
the standard of living for the Malagasy people, with a focus on 
combating cattle rustling. 
 
e) Roland RATSIRAKA, 40 years old and nephew of former president 
Didier Ratsiraka, is currently the mayor of the coastal city of 
Toamasina (aka Tamatave).  He will run under his own political 
party, TTS.  His platform focuses on promoting private sector 
development and national security. 
 
f) Rakotonirina MANANDAFY, in his early 60's and the oldest of all 
the candidates, has made four failed attempts to run for the 
presidency in the past.  President of the MFM party - widely 
regarded as a troublemaker for its expertise in organizing massive 
street demonstrations - Manandafy is currently a political advisor 
to President Ravalomanana (although he is reportedly rarely 
consulted).  Also from Fianarantsoa, Manandafy has begun to distance 
himself from the President by criticizing his management style and 
greed; however, he has not yet voiced a specific platform for the 
future. 
 
g) Herizo RAZAFIMAHALEO, in his late 40's, is the former Vice-Prime 
Minister of Foreign Affairs and the founder of the LEADER/FANILO 
political party, from which he recently resigned but still maintains 
strong ties.  Originally from Fianarantsoa, this is his third 
attempt at running for the presidency, this time as an independent. 
A businessman with an MBA degree from University of Michigan, his 
platform focuses on promoting economic development.  He has 
criticized the donors for "meddling" in Madagascar's internal 
 
ANTANANARI 00001186  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
affairs. 
 
h) Ny Hasina ANDRIAMANJATO, in his mid-40s and educated in the 
former USSR, is a former Minister of Telecommunication and was 
Ravalomanana's adversary during the municipal election in 1999. 
Having vowed that he will never work with Ravalomanana in the 
future, he has been working quietly under the radar in the 
pre-election period.  His father and mentor, Pastor Richard 
Andriamanjato, is well-known in Madagascar as one of the leaders of 
the opposition hard-liners.  He is originally from Antananarivo. 
 
i) Phillipe TSIRANANA, in his late 40's, is the son of Philibert 
Tsiranana, Madagascar's first President.  Having lived all of his 
 
SIPDIS 
adult life overseas, his only real credibility stems from his family 
legacy.  From the province of Mahajunga, his platform focuses 
generally on continuing his father's work. 
 
j) Roindefo MONJA, in his early 40's, is the son of the now deceased 
Malagasy nationalist Monja Jaona, a well-known political figure from 
the Province of Tulear.  Like President Ravalomanana, he is a 
self-made businessman and is currently the leader of the political 
party Monima K founded by his father.  He has been largely silent 
regarding his political platform for the future. 
 
k) Army General Ferdinand RAZAKARIMANANA, in his early 50's, was 
formerly provincial head in Antananarivo.  Appointed to that 
position by President Ravalomanana, he was later fired for 
"insubordination" and replaced by a civil servant.  He has since 
joined the opposition hard-liners.  A surprise candidate, he has not 
yet voiced a platform. 
 
l) Elia RAVELOMANANTSOA, in her early 50's, is the first and only 
woman ever to run for the presidency.  A businesswoman from the 
highlands, she is mostly known as the organizer of the annual 
fashion show "Manja," which promotes young Malagasy designers.  Her 
political platform focuses on raising the profile of women in 
Madagascar. 
 
m) Presbyterian Pastor Daniel RAJAKOBA, in his late 50's, lost the 
2001 presidential race by a landslide.  From Mahajunga, he has not 
yet voiced a political platform. 
 
n) Pastor Jules RANDRIANJOARY, in his early 50's, is a completely 
unknown figure on the political scene who calls himself a "ray 
aman-dreny" (an elder) candidate.  Also from the highlands, his 
platform is to put national life in the hands of the Holy Spirit. 
 
¶3.  Following are the four candidates who were rejected: 
 
Pierrot RAJAONARIVELO, in his mid-50's and former Vice-Prime 
Minister in Charge of Budget and Decentralization during Ratsiraka's 
regime, is most notable for his controversial attempts over the past 
few weeks to return to Madagascar from a self-imposed exile in Paris 
that began after the last presidential elections (Refs A and B). 
His political message to his supporters, based mainly in the coastal 
city of Tamatave, has focused solely on the transgressions of the 
2002 elections and "saving his people" from the poverty exacerbated 
by the current government's policies.  The HCC ruled that the 
candidacy of Rajaonarivelo could not be accepted because the 
certification of his signature was done in Paris on 2 October 2006; 
according to Malagasy law, certification of signature can only be 
done by appropriate local officials in Madagascar.  The HCC also 
ruled, in convoluted legalistic reasoning, that Rajaonarivelo still 
enjoys his civil and political rights despite his earlier conviction 
(still under appeal) and the outstanding arrest warrant against 
him. 
 
The following candidates were rejected because they failed to pay 
the registration fee: 
 
Army General ANDRIANAFIDISOA, in his late 50's, was the key military 
officer who helped Ravalomanana take control of the five remaining 
provinces (outside Antananarivo) during the 2002 crisis.  Appointed 
and subsequently fired by Ravalomanana from the positions of 
Chairman of the Board of SECREN and Director General of OMNIS, he 
has since expressed his hatred for the President.  He reportedly 
expressed his intention to join forces with Pety Rakotoniaina if his 
candidacy is rejected in order to complicate Ravalomanana's 
candidacy. 
 
Andrianjaka RAJAONAH and ANDRIAMANOSY, alias Bema, are both unknown 
figures. 
 
¶4. (U) Of Madagascar's six provinces, Antsiranana (also known as 
Diego) is the only one not represented among the 18 candidates. 
 
ANTANANARI 00001186  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT:  The general lack of political platforms reflects 
the reality that, in Madagascar, it is personalities and not 
policies or parties that drive the political process.  As such, the 
divided opposition is unlikely to rally behind any single candidate 
to try to bring the anti-Ravalomanana forces under one banner.  The 
vast majority of the candidates listed above are not considered to 
be serious contenders for the presidency; their candidacy may be 
partly intended to split the vote in the hopes of a runoff election 
and partly intended to gain leverage to trade for a post-election 
reward.  Only President Ravalomanana and a handful of others -- 
namely Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, Jean Lahirinko, and Norbert Lala 
Ratsirahonana -- have any sort of national following.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCGEE