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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000762 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM LG
SUBJECT: The players in Latvia's parliamentary elections 
 
RIGA 00000762  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY. Latvia enters the 2006 Saeima (parliament) election 
race with a minority government led by Prime Minister Aigars 
Kalvitis (People's Party) that includes the center-right People's 
Party, centrist Greens and Farmers Union and conservative First 
Party.  The country will likely emerge from the October 7 elections 
with a fragmented parliament in which no single party will be 
overall winner.  The new parliament is expected to include the 
Russia-oriented For Human Rights in a United Latvia (PCTVL) faction, 
the People's Party, New Era, the Greens and Farmers Union, the First 
Party/Latvia's Way slate, the nationalist Fatherland and 
Freedom/LNNK and the leftist Harmony Center.  The other parties will 
have to scramble hard to cross the five-percent threshold.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  A total of 19 parties and party associations have fielded 
candidates for the coming elections.  Opinion polls suggest that no 
more than seven have realistic chances to be represented in the 
Saeima.  Ex-central banker Einars Repse's New Era (JL) party, which 
was the most dramatic newcomer on Latvia's political scene grabbing 
a fourth of the Saeima (parliament) seats in 2002, the People's 
Party (TP), the Greens and Farmers (ZZS), and the ethnic 
Russian-dominated PCTVL are neck and neck in the polls.  Each will 
probably win around 15 - 20 seats with the former two or three 
likely to be at the core of the next government. 
 
¶3.  New Era (JL) has defined its orientation as center-right and 
pro-Western.  Its main campaign slogans focus on clean government 
and fighting corruption. Created before the 2002 elections, it won 
the plurality of seats (26 out of 100) in the previous elections, 
and led the coalition building talks. New Era is entering the 
election season as one of the most popular political parties, 
although its popularity has shrunk compared to 2002.  The party left 
the coalition government earlier in the year over a vote-buying 
scandal involving the First Party.  This is now widely viewed as a 
mistake, with even party members saying that it only reinforced 
their opponents' portrayal of New Era as unable to work well with 
others.  The party's image has been tarnished by party leader Einars 
Repse's flamboyant lifestyle and his questionable financial 
dealings.  His recent involvement in a fatal car accident could also 
have a drag on the party's popularity.  Also, a scandal that broke 
out in mid-August following the newspaper publication of transcripts 
of phone conversations implicating New Era in using illegal campaign 
funds may hurt the party in the run-up to the elections.  To bolster 
its chances in the upcoming elections, New Era has managed to 
persuade the well-known pro-independence activist and ex-Foreign 
Minister Sandra Kalniete to run for the Saeima on the New Era 
ticket. They have also announced Kalniete as their choice for 
President in next year's indirect elections, a move that drew mostly 
yawns from political observers. 
 
¶4.  The For Human Rights in a United Latvia (PCTVL) ticket 
represents a pro-Russian political group advocating automatic 
citizenship for all residents of Latvia at the time of independence 
and demands semi-official status for the Russian language. PCTVL 
professes statist economic policy, implicit anti-EU and explicit 
anti-NATO foreign policy and promises to mend fences with Russia. 
PCTVL appeared on the Latvian political scene in 1998 when four 
groups, mainly representing the interests of non-Latvians, formed a 
joint slate. In 2002, PCTVL grabbed a quarter of the Saeima seats 
but was left in deep opposition as its ideology was anathema to 
ethnic Latvian parties. In early 2003, PCTVL disintegrated due to 
rivalry between the leaders of various groups but several Russian 
nationalists centered around the Equal Rights movement revived the 
brand-name popular among local Russians. PCTVL power base, located 
mainly in Riga and the eastern region of Latgale, consists almost 
entirely of ethnically non-Latvian voters. 
 
¶5.  The People's Party (TP) was founded before the 1998 Saeima 
elections by then highly popular ex-prime minister Andris Skele who 
is one of the richest men in Latvia and is dubbed as one of this 
country's "oligarchs." TP is a conservative, and pragmatically 
nationalist, party. Its base consists of business people and 
educated urban electorate, mainly in western and north-eastern 
Latvia. Even though TP founder Skele has formally left active 
politics and is a rank-and file member of the People's Party, most 
pundits and TP's political opponents believe that he still wields 
significant power within the party. TP's prime minister Aigars 
Kalvitis currently leads the minority government. 
 
¶6. The Green party and the Farmers' Union formed a joint slate (ZZS) 
before the 2002 elections with a view to winning more parliamentary 
seats. ZZS platform appears to be centrist although it is trying to 
recruit in its ranks public figures of all political convictions. 
ZZS is believed to be the pocket party of the wealthy and 
influential mayor of Ventspils, Aivars Lembergs. In July, the 
Prosecutor General's Office indicted Lembergs for corruption, money 
laundering and abuse of office. Lembergs will not run for 
parliament; however, ZZS has made him their candidate for prime 
minister.  (Note: There is no requirement that the prime minister, 
or any other minister, be an elected member of parliament, but it 
has been the tradition for prime minister.  End note.)  ZZS has been 
in every ruling coalition since the 2002 elections, and had a brief 
spell of premiership in 2004 when Indulis Emsis led a shaky minority 
 
RIGA 00000762  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
government. 
 
¶7.  As the only mainstream true-blue nationalist party, For 
Fatherland and Freedom (TB/LNNK) clearly pitches its message at the 
nationalistic ethnic Latvian voter. The party's selling points are 
tough line on naturalization and language, and hawkish attitude 
towards Russia. TB/LNNK's economic program is fairly market 
oriented, and in foreign policy it is staunchly pro-NATO and pro-EU. 
It won 16 Saeima seats in the 1998 elections but in 2002 managed to 
squeak into parliament with only 7 seats. However, it did well in 
the 2004 European parliament elections winning 4 of Latvia's 8 
seats. Currently, TB/LNNK sits in the opposition on its own choosing 
so that it can run for the Saeima as an outsider. Its election 
chances are difficult to measure since most of its talent sits in 
Strasbourg and will not be running for the Saeima. 
 
¶8. Latvia's First Party (LPP) is a business project of the wealthy 
businessman Ainars Slesers. It has defined its orientation as 
centrist, and has announced that its activities will be firmly based 
on "Christian values."  Before the 2006 elections, LPP appears to 
have adopted an anti-gay stance as its key campaign message. Owing 
to excellent TV commercials, LPP won nine Saeima seats in 2002, 
although the polls conducted before the elections predicted that it 
might not cross the five-percent threshold. The party's popularity 
suffered earlier this year when its leader and then transport 
minister Ainars Slesers was implicated in a vote-buying scandal in 
the city of Jurmala. Nevertheless, Slesers remains LPP's prime 
ministerial candidate. In order to bolster its waning popularity, 
LPP has teamed up with liberal Latvia's Way (Latvijas Cels, LC), 
once a popular and star-studded party that was represented in every 
Latvian government from 1993 until 2002. LC suffered a crushing 
defeat in the 2002 elections and has been struggling to stay alive 
ever since. Most political observers point out the ideological 
discrepancy between the conservative LPP and the liberal LC. 
 
¶9. Harmony Center (SC) is a coalition centering around the 
National Harmony Party but without its long-time leader Janis 
Jurkans. It was created formally in 2005 and inherited eight of 
National Harmony party's Saeima members. At its convention, SC 
elected a young politician and TV journalist, Nils Usakovs, as its 
leader for the 2006 elections. National Harmony Party was a key 
member of the PCTVL bloc before it disintegrated. Now the two will 
compete for the votes of almost the same electorate. SC appears to 
be centrist and more moderate that PCTVL on ethnic policy (yet it 
still calls, among other things, for non-citizens to be able to vote 
in local elections and for semi-official status to the Russian 
language) and more business oriented, although it has admitted that 
its voters will nevertheless mainly be non-Latvian. 
 
¶10. COMMENT: A combination of voter apathy, lack of any defining 
issues, and absence of any new political force mean that Latvia's 
upcoming elections will in all probability result in a fragmented 
parliament in which at least three parties will be needed to set up 
a viable majority coalition. Unlike in all previous post-Soviet 
elections in Latvia, no brand-new political force capable of winning 
the plurality of Saeima seats has appeared. As a result, all major 
center-right and centrist parties currently in the Saeima and/or the 
government coalition will be competing for votes of the same jaded 
electorate. Due to various recent scandals involving leading 
politicians (e.g. the vote-buying scandal in Jurmala), and the fact 
that there are no charismatic fresh-faces running, the voter turnout 
is likely to fall. In a meeting with Pol/Econ chief, Chair of the 
Central Election Commission Arnis Cimdars estimated the turnout to 
drop from 72 percent in 2002 to about 62 percent this time. 
BAILEY