VZCZCXRO2282
RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #1616/01 2400347
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 280347Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7470
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0484
RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO 0067
RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001616 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, AF/SPG, DRL, INR, PRM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2016 
TAGS: PHUM PREF PREL PGOV WCI UG SU
SUBJECT: NORTHERN UGANDA: GOVERNMENT MAXIMIZING PEACE 
OPTIONS 
 
REF: KAMPALA 1601 
 
KAMPALA 00001616  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 
 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
 ¶1.  (C)  Summary:  The Government of Uganda's efforts to 
expand its options regarding the Lord's Resistance Army and 
the Juba Peace Talks intensified over the past week.  These 
include consulting with Sudanese Vice President Salva Kiir, 
opening direct discussions with LRA number two Vincent Otti 
and pursuing multilateral discussions on potential military 
operations should the talks fail.  The Government also is 
considering the consequences of no firm resolution or clear 
failure at Juba and the possibility that LRA leader Joseph 
Kony could evade a military strike.  So far, the GOU is 
demonstrating a great deal of flexibility and patience 
despite the seeming lack of progress in the negotiations, 
including considering agreeing to the assembly of LRA 
combatants in southern Sudan as a pre-condition for a 
cease-fire.  End Summary. 
 
- - - - - - - - - 
SITUATION UPDATE 
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¶2.  (C)  Speculation continues over the location and/or plans 
of Joseph Kony to relocate from Congo to Central African 
Republic (CAR).  Biselele Wa Mutshipayi, Congolese Charge 
d'Affaires to Kampala, pointed out on a map Kony's likely 
destination along the CAR-Sudan-Congo border near Obo. 
According to Congolese government's information, Kony and 
some of his fighters have been to this location, which is 123 
miles from his hideout at Garamba.  He speculated that Kony 
has a genuine fear that the Ugandan military and UN forces 
will attack him if the talks fail.  He said that Kony and 
Otti--who may not be in the same place--are being 
well-supplied with food and communications equipment. 
Another interlocutor told us that Otti now has four new 
Thuraya satellite telephones.  Congo is concerned that Kony 
is receiving outside support, possibly from parts of the 
Sudanese Government, according to the Charge.  Mutshipayi 
also expressed concern that a weekly Ugandan newspaper named 
specific locations of LRA soldiers and commanders in Congo, 
which he says, could only have come from the Ugandan 
military, which means that elements of the Ugandan army was 
in Congo to gather it. 
 
¶3.  (C)  At Juba, the LRA presented additional demands, which 
the GOU rejected.  The paper calls for the distribution of 
thirty percent of government appointees at various levels be 
from the north and east and a similar distribution of 
economic resources.  LRA also wants a Rehabilitation and 
Reconstruction Commission for Northern and Eastern Uganda to 
be controlled by the north and east.  The Sudanese mediation 
is reconciling the various position papers, which have all 
now been presented.  Meanwhile, Internal Affairs Minister 
Ruhakana Rugunda, the head of the Ugandan delegation is 
talking directly to Vincent Otti by telephone on a daily 
basis.  Northern parliamentarians report that Kony and Otti 
have called them for their views on the GOU's sincerity and 
the capacity of northerners to accept ex-LRA back. 
 
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UGANDAN PLAN A:  INITIATIVES TO MAKE TALKS SUCCEED 
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¶4.  (C)  The Ugandan Government continues its two-track 
approach to negotiating: one venue is Juba, the other "venue" 
is direct conversations with Vincent Otti at Garamba. 
Rugunda is trying to persuade Otti to make a gesture, such as 
releasing the women and children, as a demonstration of good 
faith, in part to appease the sections of the international 
community which want the ICC indictments honored.  In 
response to Kony's reported concerns about the feelings of 
Ugandans outside of Acholiland, President Museveni has tasked 
parliamentarians and local stakeholders to devise a hybrid 
reconciliation mechanism that could work across ethnic 
groups.  Another Government plan includes creating 
"reintegration" camps for returning LRA that would give them 
time to consider their future options in terms of relocation, 
provide vocational training and other forms education, and 
protection from local populations, if needed.  The Government 
continues its efforts to encourage LRA defections, which 
included seven mid-level officers/commanders this week, 
according to a military source.  Ugandan newspapers speculate 
that the Government is looking for another country to take 
 
KAMPALA 00001616  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Kony because he may fear coming back to Uganda.  Museveni had 
previously approached Libya, South Sudan, and Tanzania, 
according to Betty Bigombe.  Libya allegedly agreed. 
Museveni stopped in Libya on his way home from Germany last 
week but we have no information on the details of the visit. 
 
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UGANDAN PLAN B: TALKS FAIL, PREPARATIONS FOR MILITARY OPTION 
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¶5.  (C)  Ugandan military spokesmen have made public comments 
signaling the potential for a military strike if the talks 
fail.  The Congolese charge and members of the Ugandan Peace 
Support team confirm that there have been discussions between 
Uganda, Congo, and the Government of South Sudan about a 
multilateral approach to exercising a military option.  The 
Congolese insist that this takes the form of a multilateral 
approach that include MONUC.  Another condition for Congo is 
that this option is held off until after the second round of 
Congolese elections in mid-October.  The LRA response, likely 
triggered by press reports of "Plan B", has been to recall 
its members from northern Uganda and southern Sudan to Congo 
and disperse them into small units to lessen the blow of a 
potential Ugandan strike. 
 
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SITUATION C: NO CLEAR RESOLUTION, KONY GETS OUT-OF-REACH 
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¶6.  (C)  The GOU clearly wants to avoid a situation in which 
Kony is able to escape from the military and international 
pressure that have brought about negotiations.  In this 
scenario, the LRA does not agree to surrender, relocates 
outside Congo and finds new or old patrons, and joins forces 
with other disaffected Ugandans in scattered rebel groups. 
This would make it impossible for the GOU neutralize the Kony 
threat. 
 
- - - - 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶7.  (C)  The Sudanese mediators have their hands full, given 
the GOU's goal is to hammer out the details of an LRA 
surrender and the LRA's objective is to avoid international 
prosecution.  Nonetheless, the GOU continues to seek ways to 
accommodate some of the LRA's requests to keep it engaged in 
the peace process and to keep the negotiations moving.  For 
example, we are hearing that the Government may be willing to 
agree to some conditions for a cease-fire, such as the 
assembly of LRA fighters in designated areas of southern 
Sudan as a pre-condition.  We have been called to a briefing 
by the Minister of Defense later today on the details. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BROWNING