VZCZCXRO1437
OO RUEHFK RUEHGH RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHOK #0351/01 1880638
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 070638Z JUL 06
FM AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0318
INFO RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO IMMEDIATE 7639
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 0134
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 2235
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 0122
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 0142
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0388
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1076
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 0039
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0005
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0097

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OSAKA KOBE 000351 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EWWT PBST PHSA PREL KS JA
SUBJECT: LIANCOURT SURVEY: ANOTHER FLASHPOINT IN THE JAPAN SEA 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Observers in western Japan are making an 
unfortunate public linkage between the ROKG maritime survey in the 
disputed EEZ of the Liancourt Rocks and the DPRK's missile launches 
of July 5, local time.  Whether or not the DPRK deliberately timed 
the launches to coincide with the ROK's timing for its controversial 
maritime survey mission (as many Japanese in the area believe), the 
coincidence of the missile shots and the ROK survey may have set 
back local efforts to repair bilateral relations.  Academics and 
bureaucrats have been working under the radar to improve ties after 
the Liancourt Rocks flare-up last year, and some claim that the 
Takeshima Day affair was instigated from outside the prefecture. 
Looking ahead, Shimane Prefecture risks exacerbating the already 
tense situation further if it approves a maritime survey mission of 
its own into South Korean territorial waters surrounding Ulleungdo 
Island in August.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------- 
Connecting the Dots Differently 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Most observers have pointed to the connection between the 
July 5 (JST) DPRK missile launches and the space shuttle Discovery 
launch, or the Fourth of July celebrations in Washington.  In the 
coastal area of the Japan Sea closest to the disputed Takeshima 
islands, people's attention is drawn instead to the coincidence of 
North Korea's moves occurring at nearly the same time that a ROKG 
survey ship and military escort enter the disputed EEZ near 
Takeshima/Dokdo, or Liancourt, Rocks. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Some tabloid TV programs in Osaka are already lumping the 
missile launches and Liancourt EEZ survey together as violations of 
Japanese sovereignty, and although hostility from North Korea has 
been telegraphed over several weeks, the Osakan public's reaction to 
South Korean actions was one of dismay and surprise--least not from 
the large ethnic Korean community.  The increased fear factor from 
Taepodong and Nodong missiles landing in the Japan Sea has 
exacerbated western Japanese unease regarding a Korean Peninsula 
seemingly united in its aggressively anti-Japanese behavior.  In 
addition, the ROKG appears to have damaged ties with the GOJ by 
refusing to give the Japanese prior official notification of the 
survey.  Numerous Korea watchers in Osaka and Shimane believe that 
the biggest loser in the events of July 5 was the ROKG. 
 
-------------------- 
Stormy Waters Ahead? 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Public security officials and academics in Osaka claim the 
DPRK chose to launch its missiles into the Japan Sea on the same day 
that South Korea would reach Takeshima/Dokdo to conduct its maritime 
survey of the disputed territory to further sow dissent between 
Japan and the ROK.  NOTE: These observers did not cite evidence to 
back up their claim.  END NOTE. 
 
¶5. (SBU) There are indications that the ROKG's survey may have set 
back efforts to rightside bilateral relations at the local level. 
In mid-June, poleconoff was told of numerous below-the-radar 
cultural exchanges and track two diplomacy projects by Shimane 
Prefectural University and the prefectural government. 
 
------------------------- 
Things Were Looking Up... 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) These contacts emphasized that the Takeshima Day issue was 
not an example of "homegrown" nationalism in Shimane.  They cited as 
evidence the following: LDP prefectural assemblyman Hiromi Notsu, 
credited with raising the issue initially (and suddenly), lacked 
sufficient knowledge of Takeshima, doesn't represent that district, 
and usually uses a different style of phrasing his questions in the 
prefectural assembly.  Local bureaucrats found Notsu's Takeshima Day 
proposal suspiciously well-prepared, leading to the view that 
Shimane was being set up to play the patsy in the territorial 
dispute issue by an organization from outside Shimane.  When asked 
to speculate, one official stated his personal opinion that it could 
have been LDP HQ, an individual politician in Tokyo, or a right wing 
political organization from the capital. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Associate Professor Yuji Fukuhara, a Korea expert, has been 
working with the recently elected governor of North Gyeongsang 
Province, who sought out Fukuhara as a partner to repair sister 
 
OSAKA KOBE 00000351  002 OF 002 
 
 
state relations with Shimane, but out of the public eye. 
 
¶8. (SBU) As of June, Shimane contacts advised poleconoff to be 
optimistic about rapproachement between Japan and the ROK, stating 
that the forces for reconciliation were much stronger than the 
others.  On the Korean side, North Gyeongsang is said to be eager to 
receive Japanese foreign direct investment for its IT industry 
cluster, so at the local level, the Koreans were as eager to repair 
ties as the reconciliation faction is in Shimane. 
 
----------------------------- 
... But Could Be Sinking Fast 
----------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) However, in early July, poleconoff was informed that 
Shimane Prefecture's General Affairs Department has started pushing 
for an August maritime survey of Ulleung-do (60 km west of 
Takeshima/Dokdo; part of ROK) as an academic research project. 
Although opposed by bureaucrats in the prefecture's Culture and 
International Affairs Division, the plans are still moving forward. 
Shimane officials will meet on July 25 to decide when the survey 
would occur in August.  NOTE: It is not yet apparent whether Shimane 
has notified either the GOJ or the ROKG about their survey plans. 
END NOTE.  Academics and International Affairs bureaucrats are 
worried that such a survey will only serve to escalate tensions in 
bilateral relations, running at cross purposes with numerous local 
efforts to repair grassroots ties.  The prefecture has until now 
managed to maintain its policy separating territorial and cultural 
exchange issues with respect to the ROK.  Nonetheless, recent 
provocations on both sides appear to be fraying the grassroots 
safety net that has promoted rational discourse and a negotiated 
solution to the territorial question. 
 
RUSSEL