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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAE #0604/01 2001500
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 191500Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY ASMARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8310
INFO RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0115
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 5925
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1171
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4599
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1344
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 0187
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 0205
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1005
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 0315
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0513

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000604 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC ETTC ER SU
SUBJECT: LEAD UP TO SECOND ROUND OF EF/KHT 
NEGOTIATIONS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The second round of negotiations 
between the Eastern Front and Government of National 
Unity (GNU) commenced on July 17, 2006.  All sides 
were very positive on the prospect of reaching a 
quick settlement to the problems that have beset 
eastern Sudan.  In the lead-up to the second round: 
the Eastern Front held a consultative meeting in 
Tesseney; the GNU hosted a meeting on eastern Sudan 
in Khartoum; and issues between the Sudan People's 
Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the National Congress 
Party (NCP) which arose the weekend of July 15-16, 
raised doubts on whether the SPLM would take part in 
the negotiations.  Meanwhile, the questions 
surrounding the role, if any, for international 
observers remain unresolved.  Contacts here suggest 
that the GSE might be receptive to input on how 
better to involve the international community in the 
process.  Any suggestions from the Department in this 
regard would be welcomed.  End Summary. 
 
MEETING IN TESSENEY 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Leading up to the second round of negotiations 
the Eastern Front held a consultative meeting in 
Tesseney from 3-7 July.  The meetings were generally 
viewed as a success and attracted somewhere from 
1000-1500 participants from eastern Sudan, Khartoum 
and the Beja and Rashaida diaspora communities.  When 
PolOff spoke with Dr. Amna Dirar, she explained that 
the Eastern Front elicited a range of opinions 
regarding the negotiations from those who attended 
the meeting.  One of the key issues discussed was the 
role of observers and the international community. 
The representatives present felt it was imperative 
that there be official observers to lend credibility 
to the process.  Dirar explained that the Eastern 
Front leadership still wanted observers, but were 
unsure how to involve them at this point. 
 
¶3. (C) The consultative meetings stressed a number of 
other points meant to guide the Eastern Front 
leadership, Dirar explained.  Among the most 
important was the call for a federal state made up of 
Kassala, Gederaf and Red Sea states; a percentage of 
revenues being channeled back into eastern Sudan to 
help build infrastructure; and a focus on education 
in the region.  Dirar explained that while the GNU 
was invited, they did not attend, and did not allow 
the tribal leaders from eastern Sudan to attend. 
 
SUPPORT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Following the consultative meetings in 
Tesseney, the Eastern Front had some meetings with 
and received training from a group of Norwegian 
advisors brought to Asmara to provide assistance to 
the Eastern Front - Professor Lane, Dr. Stiansen and Jana 
Williamson.  The Norwegian Charge, however, admitted 
to some concerns on the usefulness of the training. 
Along with the Norwegian group, the European 
Commission has sent a political advisor on Sudan to 
observe the talks.  The Eastern Front and GSE 
mediator Yemane Ghebreab have also requested that an 
Italian national, Sara Pantuliano based in London and 
working for the Institute of Development Studies, who 
is an expert on the Beja and eastern Sudan come to 
attend the talks and advise the Eastern Front, 
however funding has not been worked out regarding her 
travel and rates. 
 
BASHIR SAYS "NO" TO OBSERVERS 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) PolOff also received a read-out on the GNU 
conference held on eastern Sudan at Freedom Hall in 
Khartoum on July 13.  According to sources in Asmara, 
the meeting which was intended to run for four days 
only lasted one day.  Overall the sense from our 
Sudanese contacts in Asmara was that the meeting did 
not achieve the results sought by the NCP.  While 
Salva Kiir was supposed to provide the opening 
statement, he pulled out of the conference just 
before due to differences of opinion with Bashir over 
Darfur.  Similarly, we are told that neither the UMMA 
Party nor the DUP sent representatives.  In total 
only about 100 people attended.  A partial 
translation of Bashir's statement at the conference 
provided by one of our contacts focused on the issue 
of observers in the negotiations taking place in 
Asmara.  In the version we received, Bashir is quoted 
as vowing publicly to "never accept observers in 
negotiations on eastern Sudan.  There is no room for 
observers." 
 
KIIR CANCELS TRIP TO ASMARA 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Rumors last week also circulated that Salva 
Kiir would be making a visit to Asmara on Saturday 
evening, July 15 to meet with the Darfur non- 
signatories and attempt to consolidate the Abuja 
process.  The GSE waited until late on Saturday 
expecting Kiir to arrive in Asmara, only to be 
notified that he would not be making the visit. 
Rumor from Sudan contacts is that Kiir put off the 
trip due to problems that have arisen between the 
SPLM and NCP over Darfur.  Primarily Kiir and the 
SPLM support a UN force in Darfur and have angered 
Bashir and the NCP.  Moreover, Kiir is focused on the 
lifting of sanctions in southern Sudan and wants to 
distance himself from Bashir's intransigence on 
Darfur as much as possible before he visits the U.S. 
and meets with members of Congress. 
 
SPLM ALMOST DON'T ATTEND NEGOTIATIONS... 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) While Kiir's last minute cancellation upset 
the GSE, news on Sunday, July 16 that the SPLM 
delegation might not attend the eastern Sudan 
negotiations gave them new concerns.  Sources claim 
that as of midnight on July 16, news was that the 
delegation might not attend the opening session on 
July 17 due to the issues raised above, as well as a 
feeling that the NCP was not interested in really 
solving problems in eastern Sudan.  They "want to use 
us and the name of the movement (SPLM), but they're 
(NCP) not interested in serious negotiations," 
asserted one SPLM source.  In the end Minister for 
Investment Malik Agar and some of the delegation did 
arrive the morning of July 17, however Yassir Arman 
stayed behind to head up the committee for the 
memorial of John Garang. 
 
OPENING SESSION 
--------------- 
 
¶8. (C) The opening session for the Eastern Front and 
GNU negotiations was held on July 17, 2006.  During 
the opening session both the Eastern Front and GNU 
offered a very positive take on negotiations and 
possibility of a settlement in the coming weeks.  The 
first sessions began the same evening.  No agenda was 
shared on July 17 and nothing has been shared with 
the international community to date.  When PolOff met 
with Dr. Amna Dirar last week, the tentative agenda 
was to address power sharing, wealth sharing and 
security in that order.  The Norwegians, EU and 
others continue to camp out in the corridors of the 
Den-Den Club where the talks are taking place in 
hopes of collecting bits of information, but thus far 
with minimal success.  Initial reports suggest that 
so far the talks have been primarily procedurally 
focused.  The GSE has yet to brief the international 
community or establish a mechanism to include 
international observers in any way - formally or not. 
 
OBSERVERS OR NOT? 
 
----------------- 
 
¶9. (C) In speaking with contacts who advise the GSE 
on Sudan, the wide-spread belief here is that the GNU 
may have made "no observers" a precondition to the 
Eritreans' hosting negotiations between the Eastern 
Front and GNU.  Those close to the Eastern Front and 
GSE believe that while the exclusion of observers 
hurts the Eastern Front more than anyone else, having 
anyone other than Eritrea host negotiations, would 
probably hurt their prospects for peace even more. 
So while the Eastern Front and the rest of the 
international community may believe it is a mistake, 
they point out that it could be an even bigger one if 
the insistence on observers results in the talks 
collapsing. 
 
¶10. (C) As noted above, eastern Front representatives 
want more international actors involved in the 
negotiations process.  Last week, regional Eastern 
Front offices in Kassala, Gederaf, Port Sudan and 
elsewhere issued statements that observers need to be 
involved officially and those involved on the 
outskirts in Asmara, also believe that the Eastern 
Front and GSE must make an effort to involve 
observers.  The problem is twofold, does the 
international community push so hard that they 
sacrifice the negotiation and would we accept an 
informal role if it was more structured.  The Eastern 
Front seems open to recommendations on how to better 
involve observers and we believe the GSE would also 
be willing to listen to suggestions, especially if 
international partners can help make a viable process 
a reality. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (C) Post will continue to engage Eastern Front 
leaders in the next day or so, regarding the first 
few days of negotiations.  Thus far, it sounds like 
negotiations are moving smoothly.  The SPLM's 
concerns pose some issues for the GSE.  Post believes 
that the GSE is very dependant on the SPLM to help 
leverage the NCP and, given their historical ties 
trusts them as a partner.  If the SPLM were to leave 
the negotiations problems could arise not just for 
the GSE but for the Eastern Front.  End Comment. 
 
DELISI