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Viewing cable 06STOCKHOLM913, UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS A DEAD HEAT; LEFT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06STOCKHOLM913 2006-06-21 12:23 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Stockholm
VZCZCXYZ0026
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSM #0913/01 1721223
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211223Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0506
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000913 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SW
SUBJECT: UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS A DEAD HEAT; LEFT 
AND GREENS WANT A PIECE OF SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ACTION 
 
 
Classified By: Polcouns Casey Christensen, reason 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
1.  (sbu) Recent opinion polls show the Social Democrats 
(SDP) and their Green and Left support parties have closed 
the gap with the opposition alliance; the parliamentary 
elections now look to be a dead heat.  The Green and Left 
parties have claimed the right to a more influential role 
within a potential future SDP dominated government following 
the September 17 election.  End Summary. 
 
Opposition Drops Back, SDP Surges 
--------------------------------- 
2. (sbu) Several recent polls have shown that the earlier 
lead of the opposition alliance over the SDP-led triumvirate 
has evaporated in the past few months.  The race now appears 
to be a dead heat.  But even though the opposition has lost 
its earlier substantial lead, this election still looks like 
the best chance the Moderate-led opposition has had of 
winning since they were last in power from 1991-1994. 
 
3. (sbu) The SDP has been tainted by a number of scandals 
over recent months, but the arrival of summer of and signs of 
a strong economy seem to have made Swedes less concerned with 
the improprieties of leading Social Democrats.  Fresh 
statistics from the Labor Market Board indicate that 
unemployment reached a low of 4.2 percent in May, very 
welcome news to the Social Democrats, as unemployment is the 
main target of attack for the leading opposition party, the 
Moderates.  According to an FSI poll published on the May 28, 
46 percent of the electorate believed an SDP election victory 
was likely, versus 37 percent forecasting an opposition 
victory.  The opposition was leading in the polls by 3 
percentage points as recently as March.  During the past 18 
months, the opposition have consistently led in the polls, by 
as much as 8 percent.  Public sentiment appears to have 
shifted sharply.  A Sifo poll published on June 18 put the 
SDP-led block in the lead with 48.9 percent, versus 47.5 
percent for the opposition alliance parties.  It should be 
noted that 17.6 percent of those questioned in this poll had 
not yet decided or would not reveal how they would vote. 
Figures in many other polls have given an even higher 
percentage of undecided voters.  The outcome of the September 
17 elections appears still to be up for grabs. 
 
4. (c) Comment: Developments over the past few months place a 
question mark on the previous optimism surrounding the 
opposition,s prospects.  While another SDP-led government is 
looking more likely, the opposition is very much in the race. 
 If the SDP wins, it appears more likely -- as we discuss 
below -- that the current Left and Green support parties 
would play a more influential role in a potential future 
SDP-led government.  Left and Green participation in, rather 
than just support for, an SDP-led Government would sharpen 
the GoS criticism of American foreign policy and likely make 
the government less amenable to working with NATO and taking 
significant roles in places such as Afghanistan.  End Comment. 
 
Left and Greens push for Future Ministerial Posts 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
5. (sbu) Both of the SDP,s support parties, the 
environmentalist Green party and the former communist Left 
party have on a number of occasions made clear their desire 
to gain ministerial posts in the event the SDP wins the 
upcoming September general election.  The Greens have been 
most vocal in their calls for inclusion if there is a new 
SDP-led government.  For his part, Left Party leader Lars 
Ohly has threatened that a Government containing only the SDP 
and the Greens, and excluding the Left party, could be 
brought down and new elections precipitated by the Left Party 
voting with the non-socialist parties.  (Note: This assumes, 
as is likely, that the SDP would need both the Green and Left 
parties support in order to govern.) 
 
6. (c) The Green leadership has clearly identified the SDP as 
their preferred partner, but, as a bargaining chit, and in 
order to keep their options open, the party congress at the 
end of May decided that cooperation with any of the 
parliamentary parties should not be ruled out.  The Green 
leadership has also publicly entertained the notion of 
forming a governing alliance after the election that could 
include, in addition to the SDP and Greens, a non-socialist 
party, such as the Center or Liberal party.  Although this 
proposal was immediately dismissed by the Liberals, such 
statements remind the SDP that the Greens are open to 
switching sides and joining a coalition with some of the 
opposition parties if the SDP does not offer a good package. 
They also put Prime Minister Persson on notice that he will 
have to do more than tantalize -- as he has done in the past 
-- the Greens with ultimately ephemerous prospects of 
participation in the Government if they lend their support to 
 
the SDP. 
 
Rank and File Social Democrats Like the ex-Communists 
better than the Greens 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
7. (c) A poll published on May 27 in Dagens Nyheter indicated 
that 65 percent of SDP sympathizers would like to see the 
Left party in a coalition with the Government, as opposed to 
only 46 percent favoring the Greens, if the SDP finds itself 
after the elections in a position where it needed support to 
form a government.  The SDP leadership, however, would prefer 
the Green Party over the Left party.  Per our Social Democrat 
sources, a coalition government with the Greens or the Greens 
and the Left party (similar to the current constellation in 
Norway) cannot be ruled out.  However, the SDP will not 
declare its coalition intentions before the election and the 
exact make-up of a coalition would depend on how well each 
party does.  We note, however, that the Green Party has 
called for ministerial portfolios previously, and after the 
2002 election finally accepted supporting a minority Social 
Democratic Government in exchange for significant policy 
concessions, the same could happen again. 
 
Possibility of a Left or Green-Tinted Foreign Policy 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
8. (sbu) A potential SDP Government would clearly only 
consider bringing the Greens into the government if it needed 
them for a parliamentary majority.  The Social Democrats have 
ruled Sweden for 70 of the past 86 years.  With the exception 
of World War II, there was only one instance when they were 
required to do so as the leading partner of a coalition 
government (with the Center party in the 50s).  The Greens 
and Left parties are currently limited to being support 
parties, with cooperation defined according to the terms of a 
121 point joint program.  The Left and Green parties do not 
currently have influence over the areas of Foreign Policy, 
Defense, and Energy.  We note, however, that the latest 
defense budget bill was actually passed by the SDP with 
support from the Green and Left parties, as opposed to the 
traditional consensual defense bills that included support 
from the non-socialist opposition parties. 
 
9. (c) If the Greens and the Left were to join a future 
government, they would need to compromise their positions on 
a number of issues, one of the most important of these being 
their calls for withdrawal from the European Union.  They 
both want referendums on EU membership and any new EU 
constitution.  Sources within the SDP believe that foreign 
policy would not change substantially and that the junior 
partners of the SDP would need to adopt a more pragmatic 
line.  Both the Greens and especially the left have been 
harsh critics of U.S. policy in connection with Iraq and 
Iran.  Both have been highly skeptical of Sweden's 
participation in NATO-led deployments, including in 
Afghanistan. 
 
10. (sbu) Informally, SDP officials make clear that although 
they may not particularly like working with the Green Party, 
it is preferable to the Left Party.  The Left's communist 
past, its competition with the SDP for the labor vote, and 
its disregard for market sentiment make it hard to work with. 
 However, if there is an SDP-led coalition with the Greens, 
it may be hard to keep the Left party out. 
WOOD