VZCZCXRO1985
OO RUEHCHI RUEHNH RUEHPB
DE RUEHDT #0276/01 1501920
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O P 301920Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY DILI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2597
INFO RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 1922
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0464
RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEHXX/GENEVA IO MISSIONS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 0530
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON PRIORITY 0452
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0302
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0316
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 0391
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0188
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000276 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, IO, S/WCI 
NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW 
USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD 
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY, GORDON OLSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  5/31/2016 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV MARR PHUM KPKO CASC TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITUATION REPORT FOR MAY 30 
 
 
DILI 00000276  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy 
Dili, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
(1) (S/NOFORN) Summary: 
DECREASED VIOLENCE, BUT MOB TACTICS CHANGING; 
POLITICAL AGENDA BEHIND MOB VIOLENCE? 
ADF FRUSTRATED WITH MDF? 
COUNCIL OF STATE MEETING CONCLUDES; 
BISHOP NASCIMENTO JOINS THE CALL FOR ALKATIRI'S RESIGNATION; 
IAN MARTIN ARRIVES, UN BACK TO DRAWING BOARD ON POST-UNOTIL. 
End summary. 
 
DECREASED VIOLENCE, BUT MOB TACTICS CHANGING 
 
(2) (SBU) While the overall level of violence was somewhat lower 
last night than the previous night, it became significantly 
higher today.  It appears that the behavior of the mobs that 
have become the overriding security concern for city residents 
may be evolving in response to Australian Defense Forces (ADF) 
tactics. The Embassy has heard several reports that ADF shows of 
force are no longer sufficient to deter mob violence.  This 
morning, for example, it took more than two hours for ADF to 
disperse a large, violent mob after the crowd observed that the 
ADF would not use deadly force and lacked non-lethal options, 
such as tear gas. Previously, crowds tended to disperse and flee 
after ADF arrived on the scene. The image that the ADF is unable 
to control the violence plays into the hands of those who have 
advocated a greater role for FDTL in stabilization operations. 
 
(3) (SBU) A former USAID employee, who was forced to hide in his 
home while it was overrun by a hostile crowd looking for him, 
described the composition and mood of the mob.  He said that he 
recognized most of the people who surrounded and entered his 
home as neighbors alongside whom he has lived for some time 
without previous incident.  However, today they stated their 
intent to "clean out the Lorosa'e" (the former USAID employee is 
from the eastern part of the country while the mob was made up 
of people of "Loromonu" or western origin). 
 
(4) (U) The east - west divide that is an element, and possibly 
a driving factor, behind the continued mob formation seems to be 
particularly strong in more crowded, poor and recently 
established communities.  Emboffs have also encountered 
communities that continue to maintain cohesion with easterners 
and westerners living side by side without issue.  Some of these 
communities have organized neighborhood watch organizations to 
protect from opportunistic mob or gang activity. 
 
POLITICAL AGENDA BEHIND MOB VIOLENCE? 
 
(5) (SBU) Although some observers regard east/west hostilities 
and opportunistic hooliganism as the sole causes of recent mob 
violence, others suggest that there is a "third force" at work 
--- that is, that the mobs may be fighting a proxy war for other 
actors who have a political agenda and/or who have ostensibly 
withdrawn from the fighting.  In a briefing today for the 
diplomatic corps, Foreign Minister Jose Ramos-Horta alluded to 
this possibility, and both Special Representative of the UN 
Secretary General (SRSG) Sukehiro Hasegawa and ADF joint task 
 
SIPDIS 
force commander Brigadier General Slater appeared to agree. 
None of the three was explicit about which "third force" they 
believed to be behind the recent fighting.  Pro-Alkatiri sources 
have suggested that anti-Alkatiri activists might be instigating 
violence in order to put pressure on the Prime Minister to 
resign, while other observers suggest that the pro-Alkatiri 
forces themselves may be seeking to create chaos in order to 
prove that it was a mistake to bring in the Australian forces 
and withdraw FDTL from Dili. 
 
ADF FRUSTRATED WITH MDF? 
 
DILI 00000276  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
(6) (S/NF) Some Australian Defense Force (ADF) personnel have 
privately expressed increasing frustration with the Malaysian 
Defense Force (MDF) efforts on the ground.  While MDF has been 
willing to coordinate with the ADF through participation in the 
Joint Task Force, it appears to be overly passive in its 
operations and is having even less success than the ADF at 
quickly dispersing mobs.  Overnight, Emboff witnessed a small 
Malaysian detachment that appeared to be actively avoiding 
contact with a nearby mob which had burned one residence and 
stoned others. Earlier today Emboffs witnessed a Malaysian 
detachment timidly remove a small roadblock on the road to the 
airport and then watched the small mob rebuild it while the 
Malaysian troops were still in the area. 
 
COUNCIL OF STATE MEETING CONCLUDES 
 
(7) (SBU) Although it was scheduled recommence this morning, the 
Council of State meeting did not reconvene until approximately 
3:00pm and continued until early evening.    Reports were that 
Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri and his allies were unwilling to 
return to the President's Palace where angry anti-Alkatiri 
demonstrators had gathered yesterday, so today's session was 
held at the Palacio de Governo which houses Alkatiri's office 
and those of other government ministries.   Later, it was 
reported that the Prime Minister spent the morning meeting with 
Minister for State Administration Anna Pessoa and Minister of 
Defense Roque Rodrigues.  Pessoa and Rodrigues are arguably the 
two cabinet ministers regarded as most intelligent and most 
trusted by Alkatiri, and the three may have been drafting 
suggested changes to a "declaration of crisis" that the 
President subsequently issued.  See septel for further 
discussion of the Council of State meeting and the declaration 
of crisis. 
 
BISHOP NASCIMENTO JOINS THE CALL FOR ALKATIRI'S RESIGNATION 
 
(8) (C) Public pressure for Alkatiri's resignation is widespread 
and appears to span the east/ west divide.  While the Catholic 
Church has been relatively quiet during the crisis, its views of 
Alkatiri are well established and Bishop Basilio Nascimento of 
the Baucau Diocese made a statement today from Portugal urging 
Alkatiri's resignation. 
 
IAN MARTIN ARRIVES, UN BACK TO DRAWING BOARD ON POST-UNOTIL 
 
(9) (SBU) Ian Martin, the Secretary General's Special Envoy to 
East Timor, arrived late yesterday afternoon.  He met 
immediately with President Xanana Gusmao and Foreign Minister 
Ramos Horta and then spent most of today in consultations with 
UNOTIL personnel.  In a late afternoon meeting with Ambassador 
Rees, Martin focused on whether the current security 
intervention by Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Portugal 
should be replaced by a renewal of United Nations peacekeeping 
forces.  Ambassador responded that the United States would 
consult closely with Australia on this question.  Martin also 
asked about a possible United Nations role in rebuilding the 
police force and in investigating recent serious crimes 
including the May 25 attack by FDTL on unarmed police officers 
who had surrendered under United Nations auspices. 
 
(10) (SBU) In recent conversations, UNOTIL personnel have 
expressed their opinion that developments over the last month 
have rendered previous discussions and planning for post-UNOTIL 
null and void and have probably put the UN and East Timor back 
several years.  They see the need for a long-term international 
security presence, whether it remains primarily an Australian 
operation or transforms into a new UN peacekeeping mission. 
They note that to start with, two major state institutions, the 
police and the military, will need to be fully reassessed and 
rebuilt.  In addition, they note, there may now be a need for 
the 2007 elections to be a UN operation.  (This echoes a 
suggestion frequently made by Foreign Minister Ramos-Horta, 
 
DILI 00000276  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
although it is likely to be vigorously opposed by Alkatiri if he 
remains Prime Minister.)  Although they continue to emphasize 
that everything is now "up in the air," these UN personnel are 
certain that the next mission will be significantly larger in 
scope than the current one. 
 
FOOD SECURITY AN INCREASING CONCERN 
 
(11) (U) For both internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the 
population at large, food security is becoming an increasing 
concern.  USAID director and Emboff today visited several IDP 
sites and found that the low supply of food is emerging as the 
most consistent concern among both organizers and inhabitants. 
A number of IDPs reported that while they were continuing to 
receive food, they were down to one meal a day over much of the 
past week.  However, the Inter-Agency Humanitarian Assistance 
Group is in the process of completing assessments and seeking to 
return food, water and supply delivery to  needed levels.  At 
least two international aid organizations that had pulled their 
personnel out over the weekend will be returning during the week 
and resuming their activities in the IDP sites. 
 
(12) (SBU) Throughout Dili most markets and stores remain 
closed, therefore cutting off food access to most Timorese 
residents.  A large number of Embassy employees have reported 
that are about to run out of food or have already run out.  We 
are currently discussing how to address this in the coming days 
as we do not expect this situation to be mitigated quickly.  The 
Inter-Agency Humanitarian Assistance Group reportedly decided 
last week to extend food distribution to the population at large 
in addition to IDP sites, but has yet to begin implementing this 
arrangement.  (Note: Internationals continue to have access to 
food from several more expensive stores that cater to foreign 
tastes and budgets and are maintaining limited hours and 
selective entrance policies. End note.) 
REES