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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000766 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PINS PREL ASEC KG
SUBJECT: LITTLE TENSION IN RUN-UP TO MAY 27 OPPOSITION 
DEMO, BUT POTENTIAL FOR PROBLEMS REMAINS 
 
REF: BISHKEK 626 
 
Classified By: DCM Donald Lu, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Four days before the large opposition 
demonstration planned for May 27 in central Bishkek, tensions 
are noticeably lower than in the run-up to the April 29 
opposition protest (reftel).  Opposition leaders have in 
recent days backed away from an earlier vow to call for 
President Bakiyev's resignation, and have said that the 
protest will last no more than one day.  Nevertheless, the 
government is reacting in its typical Soviet fashion - on May 
22 the government announced it would hold a celebration of 
Border Guards Day, at the same time and place as the planned 
demonstration - opening the door to a possible confrontation. 
 The Minister of Internal Affairs also told the Embassy that 
he was concerned about the possibility of violence on May 27, 
and asked the Embassy to reach out to the opposition to urge 
restraint.  However, on May 23, the Interior Minister told 
the Ambassador that he would shortly begin talks with the 
opposition to ensure a peaceful demonstration, and opposition 
leaders told PolOff they will work with the MVD to find a 
compromise solution.  END SUMMARY. 
 
OPPOSITION: BIG NUMBERS, MODEST PLANS 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Opposition leaders in recent days have stated 
publicly their intention to bring up to 45,000 demonstrators 
onto Bishkek's main square (Ala-Too Square) on May 27 in 
support of opposition demands.  Although these numbers are 
certainly exaggerated, opposition leader and former Speaker 
of Parliament Omurbek Tekebayev told the Ambassador that the 
opposition hopes to bring out "one and half times" as many 
people as appeared on the square on April 29 (NOTE: According 
to Embassy and press estimates, between 6,000-8,000 
opposition protesters demonstrated on April 29.  The 
opposition claimed "no less than 20,000, while official 
Kyrgyz government estimates put the number at 15,000-17,000. 
END NOTE). 
 
¶3.  (C) Nevertheless, opposition leaders in recent days have 
backed away from some of their more inflammatory demands. 
Tekebayev told the press on May 22 that they will not demand 
Bakiyev's resignation, as Tekebayev had earlier vowed. 
Tekebayev also told the Ambassador that there will be no more 
demonstrations following this one until the fall, because "we 
can't just keep gathering and doing nothing if there are no 
results."  Opposition leader and Parliamentarian Kubatbek 
Baibolov expressed the same sentiments, telling the 
Ambassador that he would support the demonstration only 
reluctantly, because the demonstrations were having no effect 
on President Bakiyev.  Baibolov, Tekebayev and other 
opposition leaders have notably not made the dire predictions 
of bloodshed that Post heard frequently in the weeks and days 
leading up to April 29. 
 
¶4.  (C) Opposition leader Almaz Atambayev told PolOff that 
the opposition would not initiate any kind of violence on May 
27, and would not storm the White House.  Reverting back to 
his usual bluster, however, Atambayev said that if the 
government provokes a violent clash with the opposition, "we 
won't be able to hold our people back, and President Bakiyev 
won't be president anymore after May 27." 
 
BUT POTENTIAL FOR TROUBLE REMAINS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) However, the government nevertheless seems intent on 
spoiling opposition plans.  On May 22, the Defense Minister - 
taking a tried-and-true tactic from the Akayev playbook - 
announced that the Ministry of Defense would celebrate Armed 
Forces and Border Guards Day with a concert and ballroom 
dancing contest on Ala-Too Square on May 27 (despite the fact 
 
BISHKEK 00000766  002 OF 003 
 
 
that Armed Forces and Border Guards Day is on May 28).  The 
Minister claimed that the event had been in the works for 
months, and said the opposition would have to hold its 
demonstration elsewhere. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) On May 23, civil society leader and protest 
organizer Asiya Sassykbayeva told PolOff that the opposition 
had decided to forge ahead with its plans to demonstrate on 
Ala-Too Square, regardless of the government-sponsored 
concert.  She said organizers had agreed late on May 22 
(following the MOD announcement) that the protest will begin 
at 1100 on May 27, and if the concert is not finished by 
then, demonstrators "will stand by and watch the concert, 
then begin the protest when the concert ends."  Atambayev 
later outlined to PolOff essentially the same plans. 
Sassykbayeva dismissed concerns over a potential clash 
between demonstrators and police forces trying to prevent 
them from reaching the square, claiming that the opposition 
and MVD "will work everything out in advance, just like we 
did for April 29."  Head of the opposition Ar-Namys party 
Emil Aliyev outlined the same scenario, and said the 
opposition would "under no circumstances" back away from 
plans to hold the demonstration on Ala-Too square.  However, 
Aliyev also said he was unconcerned over the potential for 
violence. 
 
¶7.  (C) But even before the Defense Minister announced plans 
to hold the concert on May 27, some in the government 
appeared worried about the potential for violence on May 27. 
The Interior Minister approached the RSO at a funeral on May 
19 and asked the Embassy to approach the opposition and call 
for restraint on May 27.  The RSO told the Minister that it 
was standard Embassy policy to always urge restraint on both 
sides.  However, when the RSO called mid-level MVD contacts 
to inquire about plans for May 27, MVD officials were unaware 
of MOD plans to hold a concert on the square on May 27, 
despite the fact the MOD announcement was clearly meant to 
draw a line in the sand for the opposition. 
 
¶8.  (C) Nevertheless, during a chance encounter with the 
Ambassador on the steps of the White House on May 23, 
Sutalinov said he would begin talks with opposition leaders 
on May 24 in an effort to ensure a peaceful May 27.  He said 
the MOD concert would end by 1100, at which time 
demonstrators would take to the square.  Sutalinov was 
unconcerned about the possibility of a clash between police 
forces and demonstrators, but said he couldn't rule out the 
possibility of an extremist group such as the Islamic 
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) disrupting the demonstration in 
order to cause instability in the country.  Sutalinov said 
police had recently arrested a deputy imam in Jalalabad 
Oblast for possession of explosives, and cited this as the 
basis for his concern about extremists. 
 
¶9.  (C) COMMENT:  There is no question that tensions in 
Bishkek are markedly lower than during the run-up to the 
April 29 demonstration, with neither side making the kinds of 
dire predictions that we heard frequently in the weeks before 
April 29.  Nevertheless, neither the government nor the 
opposition appear willing at this point to back away from 
their plans to be present at the square on May 27, increasing 
the likelihood of some kind of showdown in the days before or 
on May 27.  It's unfortunate that the government chose this 
path ) the Defense Minister's claim that the Armed Forces 
Day celebration had been in the works for month was a lie no 
one in Bishkek believes. Scheduling concerts, children's 
events and the like at the same time as opposition events is 
an old Akayev trick.  Fortunately, the Interior Minister and 
his First Deputy are trusted by the opposition, and seem 
genuinely interested in avoiding any kind of violence on May 
¶27.  The Interior Minister's statement that he will meet with 
the opposition regarding the sequence of events on May 27 is 
also reassuring.  As they have so many times in the past, the 
Kyrgyz will likely salvage a peaceful conclusion from a 
 
BISHKEK 00000766  003 OF 003 
 
 
potentially conflict-ridden situation, although there are 
likely to be some tense moments in the coming days. 
YOVANOVITCH