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Viewing cable 06STATE54012, IRAN: STATUS OF USG THINKING

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06STATE54012 2006-04-05 14:55 2011-08-30 01:44 SECRET//NOFORN Secretary of State
VZCZCXYZ0010
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHC #4012 0951503
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O P 051455Z APR 06
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO IMMEDIATE 0000
INFO RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 0000
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0000
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0000
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0000
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0000
S E C R E T STATE 054012 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KNNP IR XE JA
SUBJECT: IRAN:  STATUS OF USG THINKING 
 
Classified By: Classified by EAP PDAS Kathleen Stephens 
for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (U) This is an action request cable; see paragraph 8. 
 
2. (C) Summary.  In response to recent news articles 
alleging USG pressure on GOJ regarding Azadegan, the 
Department wants to share with the GOJ the USG's latest 
thinking on Iran.  Post is asked to share the 
information provided with appropriate interlocutors, 
and report back reponses.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------- 
Background on Japan's situation 
------------------------------- 
 
3. (S/NF) Japan chairs the IAEA Board of Governors and 
has been supportive of the U.S. approach on Iran. 
Japanese officials and diplomats have provided post and 
the Department with detailed readouts of Iranian FM 
Mottaki's meetings with the Japanese Prime Minister and 
Foreign Minister.  During Mottaki's visit to Tokyo last 
month, PM Koizumi and FM Aso urged Iran to abandon 
uranium enrichment and fully comply with IAEA 
requirements.  Still, 15 percent of Japan's oil comes 
from Iran, and Tokyo must weigh its support of 
nonproliferation against its concerns that China might 
take over all development of the Azadegan oil fields. 
 
4. (U) Japanese newspapers reported April 4 that the 
USG requested Japan terminate its involvement in the 
Azadegan Project.  In its April 4 edition, Yomiuri 
cited an unidentified State official in reporting that 
the USG has decided to ask the GOJ to halt its Azadegan 
oil field project and to join the U.S. in punitive 
measures against Iranian financial assets if ongoing UN 
talks on sanctions against Tehran falter.  According to 
this article, the message will be relayed before 
Koizumi visits Washington in late June.  A similar 
article ran in the Sankei two weeks ago, saying the USG 
had informally asked the GOJ to suspend its development 
in Azadegan. 
 
5. (U) The Sankei piece quoted a Department source who 
is alleged to have said that the Deputy Secretary and 
U/S Joseph had urged Japan to cancel the Azadegan 
project because the project's continuation gave Iran 
the financial means to seek additional nuclear 
technology. 
 
6. (C) Note.  Both the Deputy Secretary and U/S Joseph 
denied this allegation, and press guidance used by 
A/S McCormack reflected that.  End Note. 
 
7. (S/NF) A MoFA contact suggested that the worst 
possible outcome would be for Japan to be seen as 
bowing to U.S. pressure by pulling out of Azadegan 
only to watch China quickly take it over.  He said a 
behind-the-scenes approach would be more effective, 
but hinted that without an alternative to replace the 
substantial loss in oil imports, the answer might simply 
be "no."  He said he thought Japan had slowed Azadegan 
development as the nuclear issue moved toward a UNSC 
referral. 
 
-------------- 
Action Request 
-------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Action Request.  Post is asked to convey the 
information in paragraph 9 to appropriate GOJ 
interlocutors.  End Action Request. 
 
9. (S/REL JAPAN) Begin Information. 
 
-- We appreciate Japan's support for the March 29 
adoption by the UNSC of a Presidential statement; the 
pressure is on Iran to comply fully within 30 days 
with all steps called for in the IAEA Board's 
February 4 resolution. 
 
-- The U.N. Security Council Presidential Statement on 
Iran demonstrates that the international community is 
united in its concern over Iran's nuclear program and 
Iran's efforts to conceal it nuclear activities. 
Iran is more isolated now than ever and the Security 
Council has signaled international resolve. 
 
-- The Security Council has joined the IAEA Board in 
calling on Iran to suspend all enrichment related 
activity, fully cooperate with the Agency's 
investigations, and return to negotiations over the 
long-term status of Iran's nuclear program. 
 
-- Despite the IAEA Board decision in February to 
report Iran to the United Nations Security Council 
and repeated calls to suspend its enrichment related 
activities, Iran is engaged in a determined effort to 
press ahead as quickly as possible on mastering 
centrifuge enrichment technology. 
 
-- Iran has introduced UF6 gas, the feed material for 
centrifuges, into a ten centrifuge cascade to enrich 
uranium at a pilot plant.  This is the beginning of 
a much larger cascade at this pilot facility. 
 
-- Iran has also openly notified the IAEA that this 
fall it will begin installing the first 3000 
centrifuges at an industrial enrichment plant at 
Natanz, which is, in fact, designed to hold tens of 
thousands of centrifuges.  Once operational, a 
cascade of this size would give Iran the capability 
to produce enough highly-enriched uranium (HEU) for 
nuclear weapons in less than one year. 
 
-- In the event that Iran does not fully comply with 
the March 29 UNSC Presidential Statement, we expect 
to work with Japan and other UNSC members to seek a 
UNSC resolution invoking Chapter VII authority to 
require Iran to take the steps called for by the 
IAEA Board. 
 
-- Failing full compliance, we should consider 
seeking subsequent UNSCRs that impose targeted 
sanctions on Iran.  These measures would target 
regime leadership and the nuclear/missile program 
first.  However, in considering such action at the 
UNSC, we do not seek to harm the Iranian people. 
Nor do we wish to take the issue away from the IAEA. 
 
-- Indeed, even as the UNSC continues to consider 
the Iran issue, we will continue to offer full 
support for the IAEA's ongoing investigations in 
Iran.  Dr. ElBaradei's February 27 report to the 
IAEA Board identified a number of unresolved 
concerns that the IAEA continues to investigate, 
even in the face of Iran's refusal to fully 
cooperate.  Those unresolved concerns include: 
 
--- The scope and history of Iran's interactions 
with AQ Khan, including why Iran received 
information from Khan related to fabrication of 
nuclear weapons components, and whether Khan 
provided advanced "P2" centrifuge components to 
Iran; 
 
--- The history of Iran's plutonium separation 
experiments; 
 
--- The possibility of undeclared uranium 
conversion work known as the "Greensalt project", 
which the USG and the IAEA believe are 
administratively related to efforts by Iran to 
modify a missile re-entry vehicle, which the IAEA 
believes may have "a nuclear military dimension"; 
 
--- Efforts by a military affiliated organization, 
the PHRC, to acquire dual-use materials that have 
nuclear weapons applications; 
 
--- The history of the PHRC's work at the 
Lavisan-Shian facility, which Iran razed in 2004 
before allowing the IAEA access to the site; and 
 
--- The possibility of a military connection at 
the formerly-secret G'chine uranium mine. 
 
-- We would also encourage Japan to consider ways 
to take advantage of its leverage, including by 
implementing bilateral measures to exert greater 
pressure on Iran.  We are urging the EU, Russia, 
and others to do the same. 
 
-- We hope that Iran responds to the growing 
international consensus by suspending its uranium 
enrichment related activities and fully 
cooperating with the IAEA.  But, if Iran does not, 
we must be prepared to take the next steps to 
increase pressure on Iran. 
 
-- UNSC unity is essential to increasing the 
pressure on Iran.  As we move ahead, we will 
continue to consult closely with you, the EU3, 
and the remaining Security Council members. 
 
-- We recognize that Japan has energy security 
interests that we want to address in parallel 
with the Iran issue, e.g., via bilateral 
energy dialogues.  We rely on Japan to take the 
correct actions should the UNSC impose sanctions. 
 
-- The U.S. and Japan also must expand 
international consensus on the regime's nuclear 
ambitions to address Iran's other threatening 
policies, particularly its support for terrorism 
and violent extremism, its meddling with its 
neighbors, and its human rights abuses. 
 
End Information. 
RICE