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Viewing cable 06BANGKOK2370, THAILAND: ELECTION RERUN LEAVES PARLIAMENT'S

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BANGKOK2370 2006-04-24 11:01 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Bangkok
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002370 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SNAP
SUBJECT: THAILAND: ELECTION RERUN LEAVES PARLIAMENT'S 
OPENING STILL IN QUESTION 
 
REF: BANGKOK 2336 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR SUSAN M. SUTTON:  REASON 1.4 (D) 
 
1.  (U)  Summary:  The April 23rd rerun votes for the lower 
house, held in 40 unresolved constituencies, has left the 
question of how and when to seat the Parliament still hanging 
in the air.  Lower numbers of voter turnout compared to the 
April 2 general election seem to be driven by increased voter 
lethargy.  But for some of those who did show up to vote, 
they chose to tear up their ballots in face of possible 
arrest.  At least 13 MP seats may not be filled as those TRT 
candidates who ran alone in their constituency failed to meet 
the 20% required minimum.  The Election Commission (EC) is 
meeting this evening to decide whether they would proceed to 
continue with another round of by-elections on April 30, or 
to pass the hot potato -- how to convene the Parliament -- to 
the Constitutional Court.  End summary. 
 
BY-ELECTIONS: BOREDOM, CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE...AND MORE LAWSUITS? 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
--  BOREDOM 
 
2.  (U)  Amidst poor voter attendance in many voting 
districts, the April 23 rerun polls for 40 unresolved seats 
has apparently fallen short.  The elections were for seats 
where no candidates had been able to garner more that 20 
percent of the votes in single party polls in the earlier 
general elections (and one where the single candidate was 
later disqualified).  Though no official results were issued 
by April 24 morning. preliminary informal readings suggest 
that TRT single candidates in at least 13 constituencies 
failed to accrue the required 20% of total eligible votes. 
 
3.  (C)  Embassy officers monitoring the re-run polls in 
several districts in southern Thailand and near Bangkok noted 
lower levels of voter turnout relative to the April 2 general 
elections.  Election officials at some of the sites told 
poloffs that they and the voters were undergoing their third 
(including the April 19 Senate elections) round of polls this 
month.  The voters in their districts are getting fatigued 
they said.  At a meeting with poloffs at his home in 
Songkhla, TRT candidate Attachan Chaowanich claimed that many 
businesspersons and workers, tired of the disruptions caused 
by the many polls, would now vote for him, just to get the 
elections over.  (Note:  Attachan had to garner roughly three 
times the numbers he got on April 2 to attain the needed 20 
percent -- a formidable task.  End note). 
 
4.  (C)  Five-time Songkhla Democrat Party MP Nipon Bunyamani 
told poloff at lunch on April 23 that he expected that 
virtually none of the single TRT candidates in the southern 
contests would get 20 percent of the eligible vote.  This 
might mean more reruns at month's end as the TRT government 
tries desperately to seat a Parliament as mandated by May 2, 
but it is difficult to imagine any way elections next week 
would manage to produce any further successful candidates. 
With no end in sight and a political deadlock on the horizon, 
Nipon said that he wants his party to propose the invocation 
of Palace intervention under Article 7 of the Constitution. 
 
--  CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE 
 
5. (SBU) The EC is faced with a number of challenges from 
yesterday's by-elections.  A small number of constituencies 
in the South (4 in Songkhla and 5 polling stations in a 
district in Nakhon Si Thammarat) were unable to hold 
elections because their respective election officials failed 
to show up, due to either safety considerations or 
dissatisfaction with their stipend.  This is in addition to 
the races where the single candidate did not get the required 
20 percent. 
 
6. (SBU) For those who did show up, many ticked the "no vote" 
vote as they did so previously on April 2.  Still others 
reportedly showed up only to take their ballot home with them 
without casting any votes.  Meanwhile, 18 voters in the 
southern provinces chose to tear up their ballots as an act 
of defiance against the TRT, the EC, and the by-elections. 
They said that "this is not democracy" and that "voting the 
'no vote'( would be meaningless."  A reported eleven people 
were arrested for this. 
 
--  ...AND VIOLENCE 
 
7. (U) Added to the mix were several reports suspected 
election-related violence in the South.  A small bomb 
exploded in the bathroom near one of the polling stations, 
causing no injuries, in Narathiwat Province.  Another 
drive-by shooting was reported in the same province that 
killed one man and injured two women. 
 
--  MORE LAWSUITS? 
 
8. (C) The EC will be meeting to decide whether a third round 
of elections will be held on April 30.  If they decide that 
the new by-elections will not yield additional winners to 
seat the Parliament, they may decide to scrap the April 30 
by-election and submit official results (without all 500 
seats filled).  According to the latest report, the Acting 
Parliament President is the official who would then appeal to 
the Constitutional Court to rule on whether the House can 
convene will less than 500 members.  (Comment:  The EC's 
official obligation ends on May 1, one day after the possible 
new April 30 by-elections.  The EC just certifies the 
election results, it does not decide how to deal with the 
problems that follow. End Comment.) 
 
THE PAD STONED 
-------------- 
 
9. (U) Meanwhile, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) 
is trying to make headway outside of Bangkok; their attempt 
to hold a seminar in the heart of Thaksin country led to a 
confrontation.  An angry mob of 200-400 pro-Thaksin 
demonstrators attacked two key leaders of the PAD as well as 
other seminar participates at an anti-Thaksin forum in the 
Northeast.  The PAD leaders were met with flying shoes, water 
bottles and stones and were forced to end their meeting 
early, according to news reports.  The PAD charged that two 
local TRT MPs instigated the mob. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
10.  (C) We have gotten to the point we expected to reach. 
The EC appears certain to come up more than a dozen MPs short 
of the full 500.  Many academics are claiming that the 
Parliament cannot open, but the constitutional basis for 
their claim is not unassailable, and the government seems 
convinced that it will find a way to move on, open the 
Parliament (consisting almost entirely of TRT members), and 
choose a new government.  If this happens, PAD is likely to 
return to the streets with anti-TRT protests.  The elections 
have not solved the underlying problem that caused the 
protests; in fact, they have provided further examples of the 
way that TRT's dominance has undermined independent 
institutions like the Electoral Commission.   End comment. 
ARVIZU