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Viewing cable 06USUNNEWYORK390, SRSG PRONK DEPLORES AU DELAY AND WARNS GNU IS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06USUNNEWYORK390 2006-03-01 16:49 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL USUN New York
VZCZCXRO3798
PP RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHROV
DE RUCNDT #0390/01 0601649
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011649Z MAR 06
FM USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8128
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZO/OAU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 0298
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 0737
RUEHAE/AMEMBASSY ASMARA PRIORITY 0601
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0976
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 0615
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM PRIORITY 0143
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA PRIORITY 0130
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 0780
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY 8746
RUEHTRO/USLO TRIPOLI PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000390 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SU UNSC KPKO
SUBJECT: SRSG PRONK DEPLORES AU DELAY AND WARNS GNU IS 
'GANGING UP' ON AU 
 
 
USUN NEW Y 00000390  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN R. BOLTON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY. In a February 28 meeting with Ambassador 
Bolton, Special Representative of the Secretary-General 
(SRSG) in Sudan Jan Pronk warned that the Government of 
National Unity (GNU) was using anti-West and anti-UN rhetoric 
to 'gang up' on African Union (AU) Members and other 
countries on the continent in its aggressive lobbying 
campaign against the prospect of United Nations (UN) troops 
in Darfur.  In response to Ambassador Bolton's question of 
how to counter this pressure in African capitals, Pronk noted 
he had suggested to the SYG that Special Adviser Brahimi be 
dispatched to confront Sudanese President al-Bashir and AU 
Commission Chairman Konare and recommended any intervention 
the U.S. might consider be done at ministerial level and be 
careful not to vilify the AU, since it was Konare who was the 
main problem.  Ambassador Bolton recommended that Pronk see 
Congolese Permanent Representative (PR) Ikouebe while Pronk 
was in town to reinforce the message that AU PSC postponement 
was counterproductive.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C)  SRSG Pronk did not mince words at the opening of his 
February 28 meeting with Ambassador Bolton, declaring he 
'deplored' the decision of the AU to delay its planned PSC 
meeting to March 10.  He described his preparations already 
underway in Khartoum for the eventual transition of the 
African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) to a UN peacekeeping 
operation, adding he would compare notes with UN Department 
of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) Military Adviser 
Major-General Mehta on March 1.  Pronk noted that only the 
military mandate for his planning was absent; a political, 
humanitarian and civil mandate were already in place. 
 
3. (C) Pronk was emphatic about the link between progress at 
the Abuja Talks and the success of DPKO contingency planning, 
offering four scenarios given projected outcomes.  The first 
supposed a full-fledged peace agreement, which both Pronk and 
Ambassador Bolton agreed was virtually impossible.  This 
scenario would give rise to a Chapter VI mandate for an 
eventual UN Darfur force.   The second and third scenarios 
Pronk presented (a 'good' peace agreement between parties or 
in Abuja; a partial, 'fake' agreement along the lines of the 
N'Djamena Agreement) would result in a combination Chapter 
VI/Chapter VII mandate.  Finally, the fourth scenario, one of 
absence of a peace agreement all together, would necessitate 
a Chapter VII mandate.  Pronk favored the second scenario but 
admitted that the third was more likely. 
 
4. (C) Pronk thought that many of the existing AMIS forces 
could be retained, singling out the Ghanaians and the 
Nigerians, but that unity of command was crucial and that a 
single UN leadership should be employed at the head of any 
projected UN force.  Pronk recommended that Africans and 
Asians be incorporated into the force to prevent 
'antagonizing' the GNU.  Pronk feared 'cannibalization' of 
the Southern Sudan force, which was necessary to ensure that 
Khartoum did not further undermine the Comprehensive Peace 
Agreement, but he acknowledged that southern troops could 
eventually be made available on a rotating basis. 
 
5. (C) Pronk's biggest concern in getting to a mandate for 
the eventual UN force was the latest trend exhibited by the 
GNU of 'ganging up' on the AU, a tactic it was also applying 
to other African countries.  Although Khartoum 'always says 
no first but in the end says yes,' Pronk noted the difficulty 
in securing GNU consent this time around.  Pronk said the 
March 3 PSC meeting was postponed solely at GNU request to 
get AU members to reverse their January 12 endorsement in 
principle of an AMIS re-hatting, a substantive back-track, in 
Pronk's estimation.  Ambassador Bolton noted that this trend 
did not bode well for the battle in the Security Council to 
forward a resolution on AMIS transition, saying that we would 
have not only a Qatar-backed, Sudan-led Arab League to 
contend with,  but AU Members' opposition (especially 
Congo-Brazzaville) as well.  Pronk reported that Konare was 
particularly susceptible to Khartoum's pressuring and related 
a quotation attributed to Konare in which Konare admitted to 
having been 'pushed into transition' on January 12 by 'those 
who will pay for it.' 
 
USUN NEW Y 00000390  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
6. (C) Another worrying trend, according to Pronk, was 
Khartoum's campaign against the UN, which had resulted in 
threats against UN personnel, abductions and a declaration by 
al-Bashir that Darfur would become a 'graveyard' for UN 
troops, in response to which Pronk suggested follow-up from 
SYG Annan with the GNU.  He advocated a 'go slow' message to 
convey that the UN needed to eventually but not now take over 
from AMIS and to provide the AU with a solid exit strategy. 
Pronk reiterated his call for a broad mandate of long 
duration for the Darfur force. 
 
7. (C) In response to Ambassador Bolton's questions on how to 
counter the GNU's campaigns, which Pronk acknowledged were 
the primary obstacle to transition, Pronk suggested that 
Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), especially First 
Vice President Salva Kiir, stop acting like National Congress 
Party 'chameleons' and exercise more influence over Darfur 
policy, which continues to be dictated by Khartoum.  Pronk 
assessed that this reticence was symptomatic of an SPLM and 
Government of Southern Sudan tendency to back away from 
Darfur's troubles, having already gone through enough of 
their own and feeling no real connection to the west of 
Sudan.  Pronk noted that the SPLM similarly 'ignores' the 
problems of Eastern Sudan, where the GNU has not abandoned 
its military option. 
 
8. (C) Pronk agreed that Konare's manipulation was not 
necessarily representative of widespread AU sentiment toward 
transition and cautioned against lobbying AU Members to 
ensure they did not reverse the January 12 decision as 
'repetitive.'  Pronk recommended Ministerial, rather than 
Ambassadorial, interventions to make clear that the problem 
was not with the AU as a whole, and he mentioned his own 
suggestion to the SYG that Brahimi be dispatched to confront 
al-Bashir and Konare individually.  Ambassador Bolton 
recommended that Pronk see Congolese Permanent Representative 
(PR) Ikouebe while Pronk was in town to reinforce the message 
that AU PSC postponement was counterproductive. 
 
9. (C) Pronk concluded by recommending that the Council use 
the tools at its disposal to effect progress on Darfur, 
including the Sudan Sanctions Committee Panel of Experts 
Report and the International Criminal Court. 
 
10. (C) COMMENT.  Pronk's comments confirm the depths of GNU 
hostility toward AMIS transition and do not bode well for 
prospects of pushing a resolution, given Chinese, Qatari, 
Russian and now possibly Congolese, Ghanaian and Tanzanian 
sympathies.  Council consultations on Darfur are tentatively 
scheduled for March 6, a good opportunity for us to 
re-evaluate Council opinion towards AMIS transition and to 
focus any lobbying efforts accordingly.  END COMMENT. 
BOLTON