VZCZCXRO0725
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ
DE RUEHDL #0235/01 0661159
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071159Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6583
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 0299
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000235 
 
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SENSITIVE 
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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL ECON EINV ETRD CASC CJAN CPAS CFED KCRM
PGOV, EAIR, EI 
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR IRISH PRIME MINISTER AHERN'S 
VISIT TO THE WHITE HOUSE -- ST. PATRICK'S DAY, 2006 
 
DUBLIN 00000235  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Recent intensive efforts by the Irish and British 
Governments to jump-start the stalled Northern Ireland peace 
process will frame this year's St. Patrick's Day visit to 
Washington by Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach, TEE-SHUCK) 
Bertie Ahern.  In mid-2005, the IRA's historic decision to 
abandon paramilitarism renewed island-wide hopes for movement 
toward a political settlement in the North.  Since then, 
however, the peace process has slogged, with republicans 
reluctant to endorse joint policing, and unionists unwilling 
to accept power-sharing.  Having marked 2006 as a 
make-or-break year for the restoration of devolved government 
in Northern Ireland, the Irish and British Governments are 
now consulting weekly with Sinn Fein, the Democratic Unionist 
Party, and other Northern parties.  Prime Minister Ahern and 
British Prime Minister Tony Blair will confer shortly before 
St. Patrick's Day on next steps, and Ahern will likely press 
for continued White House support of this process. 
 
The Domestic Political Background 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Ireland's spring 2007 general elections, in which 
Prime Minister Ahern will seek a third successive five-year 
term, also color the political backdrop to his Washington 
visit.  The Taoiseach is pushing to restore devolved 
government in Northern Ireland in 2006 not only to claim a 
success in the election campaign, but also because the 
campaign will likely eclipse the peace process by year's end. 
 The elections have already begun to shape a more cautious 
Government approach to domestic issues.  To protect farm 
votes, for example, the Government has opposed any further EU 
concessions in the agricultural component of the WTO Doha 
negotiations.  Rather than risk union disaffection, the 
Government has similarly delayed decisions on privatizing key 
state firms, such as Aer Lingus, the national airline.  In 
terms of immediate U.S. interests, the Government 
nevertheless remains committed to facilitate U.S. military 
transits at Shannon and Dublin Airports, despite the 
electorate's opposition to U.S. efforts in the Gulf region 
and lingering public suspicions of Ireland's involvement in 
terrorist renditions. 
 
Sustained Economic Success 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Prime Minister Ahern's governing party, Fianna 
Fail, remains the election favorite, having delivered 
Ireland's unprecedented economic success.  Five percent 
economic growth in 2005 generated 96,000 new Irish jobs and 
yielded the EU's lowest unemployment rate at 4.2 percent. 
The foundation of Ireland's Celtic Tiger transformation has 
been low corporate tax rates, industrial peace, 
pro-investment policies, fiscal responsibility, and effective 
use of EU support funds.  These factors have led roughly 600 
U.S. firms to establish subsidiaries in Ireland; the stock of 
U.S. investment in the country is, in fact, quadruple the 
U.S. total in China.  With plentiful jobs, Ireland has also 
become a magnet for inward immigration, attracting over 
100,000 new arrivals since the accession of ten new EU Member 
States in 2004.  Economic success has made Ireland a role 
model for these new EU members and a more confident 
diplomatic go-between for the United States and the EU, as 
personified by the EU Ambassador to the United States, former 
Irish Prime Minister John Bruton. 
 
Bilateral Agenda Items 
---------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Based on information from GOI sources, the 
following are issues that the Taoiseach might raise in his 
White House discussions: 
 
Immigration.  The Irish Government has begun a lobbying 
campaign with Congress on behalf of Irish residing illegally 
in the United States, variously estimated at between 5,000 
and 50,000.  Prime Minister Ahern will likely ask the White 
House to support the Kennedy-McCain immigration bill, which 
would regularize the status of these illegals. 
 
Shannon/Rendition.  The Irish Government has rebuffed 
repeated calls from opposition parliamentarians and the 
public to investigate the alleged use of Shannon Airport for 
terrorist renditions.  Government leaders have cited earlier 
U.S. assurances that no such practice involves Ireland, and 
Prime Minister Ahern would like to say after his White House 
discussions that those assurances stand. 
 
The Middle East.  Ireland has joined the international 
 
DUBLIN 00000235  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
community in calling for Hamas to renounce violence and to 
recognize Israel's right to exist.  Ireland also favors an EU 
approach that would give Hamas latitude to prove itself a 
responsible partner in the peace process, with some Irish 
commentators likening Hamas, challenge to that previously 
faced by Sinn Fein in moving from violence to politics in 
Northern Ireland. 
 
Irish Peacekeeping.  The Irish Defense Forces have roughly 
760 troops serving in multilateral peacekeeping missions in 
Liberia, Kosovo, Bosnia, and Afghanistan, with one person now 
assigned to Darfur.  The Irish will depart Liberia by late 
2006, but are nearing decisions on a Congo mission and 
participation in the EU Battlegroups rapid reaction force. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The following items might also merit mention in 
discussions with the Taoiseach: 
 
Terrorism.  In 2005, Ireland enacted legislation that 
improved police powers to track terrorist suspects and 
terrorism financing.  Also last year, the Irish Government 
signed a new mutual legal assistance agreement with the 
United States that makes possible increased cooperation in 
the Global War on Terrorism. 
 
Iraq.  Ireland continues to permit U.S. military transits at 
Shannon and Dublin Airports (347,000 troops in 2005) in 
support of U.S. actions in the Gulf region, despite the 
unpopularity of U.S. military action in Iraq.  Ireland has 
also disbursed half of a euro 3 million commitment to the 
EU's reconstruction efforts in Iraq. 
 
Extradition.  There have been no successful U.S. extradition 
requests in eleven years, and only five successes in the 34 
extradition requests made since 1975.  Irish police and 
justice officials sympathize with U.S. frustration, but are 
unable to influence Irish judges who consistently seek out 
technicalities that thwart the extradition of U.S. suspects. 
 
Doha.  Although the services and industrial sectors now drive 
the Irish economy and would benefit greatly from a Doha deal, 
the Irish Government has staunchly opposed EU flexibility on 
agriculture, which WTO members see as essential to a deal. 
Ireland needs to recognize that continued EU intransigence on 
agriculture could wreck the Doha Round. 
 
Aviation.  In 2005, Irish visitors to the United States 
increased to over 500,000, a number that will likely grow 
with the hoped-for phase-in of Open Skies this fall under the 
U.S.-EU aviation agreement.  Dublin and Shannon have the only 
airports in Europe where U.S. Customs and Border Protection 
(CBP) offer passport screening, and the Embassy is pressing 
the Irish Government to upgrade CBP facilities to enhance the 
security and commercial benefits of trans-Atlantic air 
service. 
 
U.S.-Ireland R&D Partnership.  In 2005, the Department of 
Health and Human Services, the National Institutes of Health, 
and the National Science Foundation launched a collaborative 
program with researchers in Northern Ireland and the South on 
cystic fibrosis, diabetes, avian flu/respiratory illness, and 
nanotechnology.  The leaders of this trilateral initiative, 
including HHS Deputy Secretary Alex Azar, will meet in 
Washington on March 14 to discuss further avenues of 
cooperation. 
KENNY