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RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000057 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE: ELECTIONS, CIV-MIL RELATIONS, ETC. 
 
REF: SUVA 26 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger; Sections 1.5, B and D. 
 
Summary 
-------- 
¶1.  (C)  Fiji's general election may take place as early as 
late April.  Political parties are gearing up.  Opposition 
leader Chaudhry seems satisfied that complaints about 
electoral-registration are being resolved.  Elections 
Commissioner Leung is confident a free and fair election can 
take place.  However, Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) 
Commander Bainimarama is convinced the coming elections are 
already irretrievably rigged.  He told us he intends to 
ensure the elections are postponed, preferably by Fiji's 
civilian leadership.  We comment that both Bainimarama and 
the opposition Labor Party seem to take a relativistic view 
of "rule of law" when it comes to removing the current Qarase 
Government.  If elections are imminent, Bainimarama will have 
to decide rapidly how to proceed.  He knows full well the 
negative consequences of ordering an illegal act, including 
on relations with the U.S.  Bainimarama wants a legal way out 
and will push for a civilian solution.  If that doesn't 
happen to his satisfaction, tensions such as flamed in 
January may well recur. 
 
¶2.  (C)  The dialogue between Bainimarama and Qarase mediated 
by Acting President Madraiwiwi in January (reftel) is 
ongoing.  Qarase sees it as positive; Bainimarama says it is 
useless.  President Iloilo's recent announcement that he will 
seek a second term pleased Bainimarama and disappointed 
Qarase.  The PM's controversial reconciliation bill probably 
will not be enacted prior to early elections.  Fiji's Police 
Commissioner reports that former PM Rabuka is likely to be 
indicted shortly on charges related to unrest in 2000. 
Others under investigation, including prominent Fiji 
diplomats, may escape prosecution.  End Summary. 
 
¶3.  (C)  The visit of EAP/ANP Director Krawitz to Suva Feb. 
13-15 provided an opportunity to meet with senior Fiji 
leaders, including Jioji Kotobalavu, CEO in the Prime 
Minister's Office; Isikeli Mataitoga, CEO in the Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs; Opposition Leader Mahendra Chaudhry; 
Commander of the RFMF Frank Bainimarama; Police Commissioner 
Andrew Hughes; and Elections Commissioner Graham Leung.  The 
following paragraphs are distilled from those conversations. 
 
Election in late April? 
----------------------- 
¶4.  (C)  Police Commissioner Hughes said he had just heard 
definitively from Home Affairs Minister Vosanibula that 
Fiji's general election will take place in late April.  PM 
CEO Kotobalavu was more coy, noting the election could come 
anytime before August, with school holidays (to free up 
polling space) being shifted as necessary.  Elections 
Commissioner Leung said he had informed the PM that necessary 
preparations could be in place by end of April.  Commander 
Bainimarama currently believes the election will be later 
than May. 
 
Parties gearing up; election-registration complaints fading 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
¶5.  (C)  Even without a formal signal, political parties have 
been gearing up.  Chaudhry's Fiji Labor Party (FLP) held its 
first election rally late last week.  Chaudhry told us the 
FLP has selected all its candidates and is already focusing 
attention on the key constituencies it must win in order to 
take power.  Chaudhry has publicly complained for months 
about alleged election-registration malfeasance.  He told us 
he is currently satisfied with Elections Office efforts to 
correct problems.  Leung acknowledged there has been some 
evidence of nepotism and ineffectiveness at lower levels of 
the elections machinery, but he said the latest registration 
figures indicate some 92% of eligible voters have registered, 
and the percentage is about the same for both of Fiji's major 
ethnic groups: Fijians and Indians. 
 
Intense Bainimarama concern about rigged election 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶6.  (C)  RFMF Commander Bainimarama is convinced, however, 
that the coming election has already been irredeemably rigged 
by PM Qarase and his SDL Party.  As evidence, Bainimarama 
noted to us that Fiji's last census was in 1996, and the 
mandatory, ten-yearly one for 2006 has been delayed.  Leung 
told us the delay is because "the system" was not adequately 
prepared to conduct a census in time for the coming 2006 
 
SUVA 00000057  002 OF 003 
 
 
election.  Bainimarama, on the other hand, reported that his 
brother, who runs the statistics office, has been ready and 
willing to proceed on the census (which would take at least 6 
months) but has been stymied.  Bainimarama believes that, 
absent a proper census, there is no way electoral boundaries 
can be properly set and it is impossible to judge whether all 
eligible voters have been registered.  Leung, who is admired 
by both Government and opposition leaders for his integrity 
and who is a close friend of Acting President Madraiwiwi, 
believes a fair election can be run despite the lack of 
current census figures. 
 
¶7.  (C)  When we noted to Bainimarama that Fiji law requires 
an election to take place before November, making a census at 
this point almost impossible, he responded that something 
will have to be done.  He made clear his view that Fiji 
cannot weather an election which wrongly places the current 
Qarase Government in office for another 5 years.  When we 
reiterated USG views of the importance of the rule of law and 
civilian control, Bainimarama responded that he does not 
necessarily have to be the one who forces an electoral 
postponement.  He suggested that an interim government could 
be installed, pending proper preparation of elections.  We 
asked if he has conveyed his concerns to Acting President 
Madraiwiwi.  Bainimarama said he had met yet again with 
Madraiwiwi on Feb. 14 and had indeed raised his concerns. 
((Note: our understanding of Fiji law is that the general 
election must take place by November 2006.)) 
 
A comment: the rule of law and relativity 
----------------------------------------- 
¶8.  (C)  One of the mystifying aspects of Commander 
Bainimarama is his strong advocacy of the rule of law when it 
comes to prosecuting those who instigated the 2000 coups, but 
his apparent willingness to contemplate RFMF illegal action 
to remove the current government if it fails to meet his 
expectations.  He does not at all appear to crave a military 
government though.  He has suggested the intended outcome, if 
necessary, would be to install an interim civilian government 
pending new elections.  Leadership of the opposition FLP 
seems to have a similarly relativist approach.  The FLP 
President, Mrs. Koroi, openly admitted to Fiji TV during the 
civil-military crisis in January that she would find it 
acceptable for the RFMF to remove the Qarase government and 
replace it with the pre-2000 Chaudhry government, to restore 
the previous status quo.  Chaudhry publicly backed away from 
Mrs. Koroi's statement at the time; but privately he seemed 
to imply to the Ambassador and Krawitz that it might be 
justifiable for the RFMF to remove the Qarase government and 
install an interim replacement, pending fair elections. 
 
PM-RFMF dialogue: mixed reviews 
------------------------------- 
¶9.  (C)  We heard from CEO Kotobalavu that the dialogue 
between PM Qarase and Commander Bainimarama, which both 
parties agreed to in a Jan. 16 meeting mediated by Madraiwiwi 
(reftel), is taking place every two weeks and has been 
useful.  Kotobalavu suggested it is an outlet for the 
emotional Bainimarama to vent his feelings.  When we asked 
Bainimarama his view of the dialogue, he said it has been of 
no use at all. 
 
President Iloilo now seeks a second term - ramifications 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
¶10.  (C)  A few days ago, Fiji President Iloilo announced 
that he is prepared to take a second term, to begin in March. 
 This was rather a surprise, since rumor had it that the 
85-year-old, who is in poor physical health, aspired to 
retire to his village.  Acting President Madraiwiwi has 
informed us that Iloilo does not expect to serve another 
entire 5-year term, but he thinks he can add stability during 
a troubled time for Fiji, including for the coming elections. 
 Bainimarama, who has had President Iloilo's support at 
crucial times, is very pleased by the news.  CEO Kotobalavu 
gave us a clear impression the PM is much less enthusiastic. 
Kotobalavu blamed the RFMF and Chaudhry for encouraging 
Iloilo to stay on, a decision which "is not really good for 
the country."  Fiji's President is selected by the Great 
Council of Chiefs, and some have speculated PM Qarase was 
angling behind the scenes for a "conservative," maybe current 
Fiji High Commissioner to Malaysia Adi Samanumu Cakobau.  Adi 
Samanumu is anathema to Bainimarama, who is convinced she was 
a major instigator of the 2000 coup.  Interestingly, 
Kotobalavu told us that, if Iloilo receives a second term 
(and under Fijian chiefly custom it would be very rude for 
the GCC to deny him that request once made), Vice President 
 
SUVA 00000057  003 OF 003 
 
 
Madraiwiwi would automatically serve out the term as 
President if Iloilo were to resign. 
 
"The Bill" -- probably put aside for now 
---------------------------------------- 
¶11.  (C)  One of Bainimarama's major issues with the Qarase 
Government is the Reconciliation Bill (the Bill).  Qarase has 
conveyed mixed messages about the future of the Bill publicly 
in recent days, most recently saying it will be passed by the 
current Parliament...if there is time before the elections. 
CEO Kotobalavu said the bill will not receive Parliamentary 
consideration before the elections.  There simply isn't time 
to incorporate necessary amendments.  However, Bainimarama 
retains suspicions. 
 
More 2000-Coup indictments?  Yes and no 
--------------------------------------- 
¶12.  (C)  An alleged motive for the Bill is that Qarase 
wanted to curry favor with Fijian conservative voters who 
hanker to see the release of those convicted of participating 
in Fiji's 2000 coup.  In addition, some of the alleged 
instigators of events in 2000 remain under investigation. 
Police Commissioner Hughes told us former PM Rabuka is likely 
to be indicted soon for collaboration in a mutiny against 
Bainimarama in late 2000.  Investigations into those who 
helped finance the May 2000 coup continue, but Hughes 
predicts no convictions will result.  Evidence is not 
sufficiently clear.  Investigations also continue against 
prominent Fijian chiefs, like current High Commissioners to 
Malaysia (Cakobau) and PNG (Kabuabola), and against former 
Police Commissioner and now PermRep to the UN Savua.  Hughes 
senses that, again, not enough proof will emerge in those 
cases. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶13.  (C)  Given Commander Bainimarama's view that the coming 
elections are bound to be corrupted, and given what we are 
hearing about the late April election date, Bainimarama is 
facing decision time.  Without doubt he knows that trying to 
take the law into his own hands to stop elections would have 
serious repercussions.  As previously reported (reftel), 
events of January may well have instilled doubt in 
Bainimarama's mind whether the RFMF would follow him if he 
were to attempt illegal acts.  He also certainly understands 
that Fiji's international reputation and tourist economy 
would suffer from such.  Down to home, he knows U.S. military 
assistance to Fiji would be severed.  Interestingly, when we 
asked how plans are coming along for next September's Pacific 
Armies Management Seminar (PAMS) to be held in Fiji, 
Bainimarama responded that plans are coming along well..."if 
it happens."  Might that be an acknowledgment that illegally 
stopping the election would surely stop things like PAMS as 
well?  Bainimarama told us 2006 will bring three important 
events from the RFMF perspective: selecting the new 
President; the general election; and PAMS. 
 
¶14.  (C)  We truly believe Bainimarama wants a legal way out 
of the box he is in.  Thus, he will push for a "civilian" 
solution in discussions with the Acting President and others. 
 The hanging question, though, is what happens if legal 
election requirements and civilian-leaders' judgments result 
in the civilian option not coming through. 
DINGER