VZCZCXRO5865
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #0618/01 0342050
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 032050Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8734
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000618 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MX
SUBJECT: PULSING THE POLLS:  AMLO LEADS, MADRAZO TRAILS, 
THE PAN BUILDS MOMENTUM 
 
REF: A. 05 MEXICO 5527 
 
     ¶B. O5 MEXICO 7435 
 
¶1.  (SBU):  Summary:  Institutional Revolution (PRI) and 
Democratic Revolution (PRD) party pollsters, plus Televisa's 
Mitofsky and newspapers El Universal and Reforma each 
released polls in January (as the official campaigns kicked 
off) that confirmed PRD candidate Lopez Obrador's (AMLO) 
lead, reaffirmed the strong negatives associated with PRI 
candidate Madrazo, and gave conflicting reads on National 
Action (PAN) candidate Calderon's success in building 
momentum.  Interestingly it is PRI pollster Maria de las 
Heras (Demotecnia) that has results implying popular 
perception of AMLO is glowing, in stark contrast to the PRI's 
Madrazo.  PRD pollster Covarrubias acknowledged that more of 
those polled are identifying the PAN as the best party. 
Mitofsky results indicate voters will split their ballot, 
voting for one party's candidate for president, but going 
with another party for Congress.  While campaigns have 
disputed individual poll findings, the trend lines continue 
to point to a pretty close vote in July.  End Summary 
 
AMLO Holds His Lead 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  All five polls keep AMLO in the lead; Covarrubias, 
Reforma and Mitofsky show him gaining support over the last 
month while Demotecnia and El Universal show him slowly 
losing votes, although still well ahead of his two 
competitors.  It's important to note that the January polls 
are generally the first that refer to the candidates and 
their alliances with other parties -- some suggest his gains 
in January reflect the Democratic Revolution Party's (PRD) 
alliance with the Workers' (PT) and Democratic Convergence 
(CD) parties.  Demotecnia also polls respondents on their 
views about the candidate who best represents their needs, 
who is most honest, respects the laws, and can solve problems 
-- AMLO sweeps the entire list of positives.  The same is 
true in Covarrubias' poll -- AMLO scores highest on 
everything from increasing employment to reducing public 
insecurity.  Over time the trends look like: 
 
            Polling Results -- AMLO 
 
      October 2005      November 2005     December 2005 
January 2006 
 
Demotecnia  39 
37 
Mitofsky                      35                34.7 
38.7 
Covarrubias 42                                  35 
39 
El Universal                        34 
33 
Reforma     31                29 
34 
 
Madrazo Holds His Negatives 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Just as AMLO sweeps the positives, Madrazo 
continues to have a strong hold on the negatives, coming in 
third in all polls.  Covarrubias reports that 44 percent of 
those polled had a bad impression of Madrazo in December 
2005, a figure that decreased to 40 percent in January but 
was still 24 points above the nearest competitor (AMLO with 
16).  Demotecnia respondents rated Madrazo lowest when rating 
the candidate that would be the best president, the candidate 
who would respect the law, and the candidate who is most 
honest.  Mitofksy also has Madrazo with the highest level -- 
by far -- of negative appraisal by respondents, with 40 
percent reporting low opinions of the candidate.  The PRI as 
a party had a negative ranking of 37.5 percent, the highest 
of any of the parties, although closely followed by the New 
Alliance Party, formed as a result of infighting within the 
PRI, which came in at 35.4 percent.  It also appears the PRI 
gained little from its alliance with the PVEM, which was 
polling at 5-6 percent before the alliance.  Mitofsky notes 
as well that Madrazo is losing support from within the PRI 
even as he picks up some independent votes. 
 
                  Polling Results -- Madrazo 
 
      October 2005      November 2005     December 2005 
January 2006 
Demotecnia        29 
30 
Mitofsky                      30.4              32.7 
29.2 
Covarrubias 21                                  16 
22 
 
MEXICO 00000618  002 OF 002 
 
 
El Universal                        18 
20 
Reforma     26                21 
22 
 
Calderon Holds On 
------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Calderon was perceived as building momentum from a 
fairly successful PAN primary campaign up until the Christmas 
truce was declared in December and early January.  While 
Mitofsky and Reforma polls indicate his momentum may have 
dropped off, the other polls seem to suggest that Calderon 
continues to increase support, primarily from PAN members and 
a small number of independents.  Mitofsky warns that Calderon 
is third amongst the youth vote which the PAN has targetted. 
 Demotecnia finds that only 18 percent of those polled think 
the PAN can win the presidency a second time.  Covarrubias on 
the other hand finds that the PAN gets the highest rankings 
as a party -- and that support for the PAN increased from 29 
percent describing it as the best in December 2005 to 31 
percent describing it as the best in January 2006.  All three 
polls note that name recognition for Calderon has jumped 
appreciably -- and positively -- over the last few months, 
but he still lags behind both AMLO and Madrazo who each have 
name recognition levels in the high 90s. 
 
 
                  Polling Results -- Calderon 
 
      October 2005      November 2005     December 2005 
January 2005 
Demotecnia  25 
31 
Mitofsky                      29                31.5 
31 
Covarrubias 22                                  24 
27 
El Universal                        22 
27 
Reforma     23                28 
26 
 
Abstentions, Split Votes, New Parties 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Demotecnia is the only pollster to predict turn 
out and estimates that 47 percent will vote in July 2006, 
based on most recent polling data.  Mitofsky results covered 
congressional voting, which in January 2006 looked to be 
divided almost evenly into thirds.  Of those polled, 33.5 
percent would vote for PAN candidates for Congress, 35 
percent would vote for PRI/PVEM candidates, and 30.4 percent 
would vote for PRD/CD/PT candidates.  It's important to note 
that the candidate lists for congress have not yet been 
finalized.   Finally, none of the polls gives much hope that 
the two newly-formed parties, "Alternativa" and New Alliance 
(PANAL) will meet the 2 percent requirement to remain active 
parties.  Only Demotecnia gives "Alternativa" two percent of 
the vote, and none can record a percentage for PANAL. 
Finally, disparity in polling results remains a source of 
controversy, in part because the candidates are so close and 
the independent vote as yet so fluid. 
 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
KELLY