VZCZCXRO2321
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHKU #0097/01 0151356
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 151356Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2480
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000097 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2015 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KU SUCCESSION
SUBJECT: AMIR'S DEATH: THE POLITICAL FALLOUT 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 93 
     ¶B. 05 KUWAIT 4933 
     ¶C. 05 KUWAIT 4372 
     ¶D. 04 KUWAIT 3580 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary and comment: The Amir's death on January 15 
(ref A) was widely expected in Kuwait and is unlikely to have 
a significant impact on the country's political/economic 
direction or U.S.-Kuwaiti relations.  As per the succession 
law, Crown Prince Shaykh Saad Al-Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah, 
himself in very poor health, was automatically proclaimed the 
next Amir by the Council of Ministers.  However, Prime 
Minister Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, the de 
facto ruler of Kuwait since 2001, will continue to direct 
government policy for the foreseeable future.  Some observers 
speculate that Shaykh Saad will abdicate the amirship to the 
Prime Minister in the coming weeks, formalizing Shaykh 
Sabah's political power.  Given Shaykh Sabah's careful 
approach to succession issues, we do not predict that he will 
push for the Amir position in the near term.  While the Amiri 
succession is unlikely to affect the distribution of power at 
the top, it could have a significant impact on the 
second-tier of Kuwaiti leaders in the appointments of a new 
Crown Prince and Prime Minister and a possible redistribution 
of ministerial portfolios.  While the ultimate impact of the 
succession on Cabinet posts will depend on the people chosen 
to fill the vacant positions, post does not anticipate any 
scenario that would significantly affect U.S.-Kuwaiti 
relations.  End summary and comment. 
 
The Next Amir? 
-------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) The death of Shaykh Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, 
Amir of Kuwait since 1977, on January 15 was widely 
anticipated and is unlikely to have a major impact on the 
country's internal affairs, its external relations, or U.S. 
interests.  Crown Prince Shaykh Saad Al-Abdullah Al-Salem 
Al-Sabah, who suffers from serious health problems himself, 
automatically became the next Amir as per the 1964 succession 
law.  (Comment: In a recent meeting with former President 
George Bush, the Crown Prince was unable to speak, although 
he seemed cognizant of the President's presence, and was only 
able to stand with the support of his son and an aide.  The 
Crown Prince suffered brain damage from excessive 
hemorrhaging brought on by colon disease in 2001.  End 
comment.)  Due to the Crown Prince's health condition, many 
embassy contacts predict Shaykh Saad will abdicate the 
amirship in favor of Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah in the 
coming weeks, if not sooner.  However, Shaykh Sabah has been 
loathe to push for changes at the top.  He has told an 
interviewer that there is no Kuwaiti tradition of "former" 
rulers and he appears comfortable exerting effective control, 
at least until now. 
 
Impact of Succession on Ministerial Portfolios 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶3.  (C) While the Amiri succession is unlikely to 
significantly affect power at the top, it is expected to have 
a greater impact on the distribution of power in the Council 
of Ministers for two reasons.  First, if Shaykh Saad 
abdicates in favor of Shaykh Sabah, the positions of both the 
Crown Prince and the Prime Minister would need to be filled. 
Since the leading candidates for the positions are currently 
top ministers, any appointment would necessitate replacing at 
least one minister and could result in a shift in ministerial 
portfolios.  (Note: It is possible that the two positions, 
separated in 2003, will be reunited and given to one person. 
End note.) 
 
¶4.  (C) It is unclear, however, who might fill these 
positions, which may militate for Shaykh Sabah to continue to 
serve as PM even if named Crown Prince.  The amirship has 
traditionally alternated between the Jaber and Salem branches 
of the Al-Sabah family; however, some contacts suggest this 
is merely an historical coincidence.  There are, in fact, few 
potential candidates for either position from the Salem 
branch, although Foreign Minister Shaykh Dr. Mohammed 
Al-Salem Al-Sabah, who has a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard 
University, is a notable exception.  Shaykh Dr. Mohammed, the 
leading figure among the younger generation of Al-Sabah, is 
considered by many to have the experience and vision 
necessary to lead Kuwait in the twenty-first century.  One 
other (unlikely) candidate from the Salem branch is Shaykh 
Ali Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah, the son of National Guard 
Chief Shaykh Salem Al-Ali and a former Minister of 
Communications and Minister of Finance; he does not currently 
hold a government position. 
 
KUWAIT 00000097  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) The other leading candidates for the positions of 
Crown Prince and Prime Minister are from the Ahmed line of 
the Jaber branch.  One candidate is First Deputy Prime 
Minister and Minister of Interior Shaykh Nawaf Al-Ahmed 
Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, though Dr. Ismail Al-Shatti (strictly 
protect), a former MP and an astute political analyst, told 
Polfoff recently that Shaykh Nawaf was "weak" and was "not a 
decision maker."  Al-Shatti noted, however, that Shaykh Nawaf 
would be acceptable to the Salem branch due to his close 
relationship with Shaykh Saad.  Another candidate is Deputy 
Chief of the National Guard Shaykh Mishal Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber 
Al-Sabah, who Al-Shatti said would in any case be "the real 
strong man" behind Shaykh Nawaf if the latter was appointed 
to either position.  Energy Minister Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd 
Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah is also rumored to be a potential 
candidate.  Shaykh Ahmed has expended considerable effort to 
build support both within the ruling family and among Kuwaiti 
society more broadly; however, at 42, many consider him too 
young for either position.  Some contacts also question his 
commitment to reform and note that he has been implicated in 
several corruption scandals. 
 
¶6.  (C) The second reason ministerial portfolios could be 
affected by the Amiri succession is that the Salem branch may 
use Shaykh Saad's abdication as a bargaining chip in 
intra-family negotiations over the future distribution of 
power.  Shaykh Salem Al-Ali, the leading Salem branch family 
member who provoked a public controversy and indirectly 
criticized the Prime Minister by calling for the creation of 
a three-member committee to "assist the leadership" with 
ruling the country (ref C), has long voiced the Salems' 
opposition to the Jabers' consolidation of political power. 
(Note: Four of the sixteen Cabinet positions are currently 
held by Jabers, while only one is held by a Salem.  End 
note.)  Shaykh Salem Al-Ali and other leading Salems are 
unlikely to quietly acquiesce to Shaykh Saad's abdication 
without getting something - most likely ministerial 
portfolios - in return. 
 
Impact on U.S. Interests 
------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (C) The Amir's death is unlikely to significantly affect 
U.S. interests in Kuwait or U.S.-Kuwaiti bilateral relations. 
 Even if Shaykh Saad remains as Amir for an extended period 
of time, Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah will continue to direct 
the Government of Kuwait's policy on important issues.  Even 
a shift in key ministerial portfolios is unlikely to have a 
major impact on Kuwait's commitment to the primacy of its 
relationship with the U.S. 
 
Kuwaitis Mourn for Honored Amir 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Shaykh Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, Amir of 
Kuwait for nearly 28 years, led the country through some of 
its most tumultuous periods, including the Iraqi invasion of 
Kuwait in August 1990.  He also presided over an 
unprecedented period of economic prosperity, which 
contributed to Kuwait's emergence as a regional economic 
player.  His foresight in investing oil revenues in the 
unique Fund for Future Generations proved critical in his 
efforts to garner international support for the liberation of 
Kuwait from Iraqi occupation in 1991.  Shaykh Jaber was also 
a strong supporter of women's suffrage legislation, which he 
introduced by amiri decree to the National Assembly in 1999; 
initially rejected by Parliament, women were finally given 
full political rights in May 2005. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Shaykh Jaber reportedly married more than 30 times 
and has an estimated - sources differ - 23 sons and 15 
daughters.  He was born in 1928.  Kuwaiti contacts remember 
him fondly as a good Amir who led Kuwait through times of 
both feast and famine.  Although his death is not unexpected, 
Kuwaitis we have spoken with today are deeply saddened and 
moved by the loss of a ruler widely loved and honored for his 
generosity and humility. 
 
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LeBaron