This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 007100 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2015 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON IS GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS PEACE PROCESS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: CODEL SPECTER MEETS WITH EHUD BARAK AND SHIMON 
PERES 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Vice Premier Shimon Peres and former Prime 
Minister Ehud Barak, in separate meetings, told Senator Arlen 
Specter (R-PA) that they are optimistic about the impact of 
Kadima on the peace process, and both predicted the Labor 
party would be marginalized under the leadership of Amir 
Peretz.  Peres said that Hamas would not disarm if it has a 
strong showing in the next Palestinian elections and will not 
be willing to negotiate with the GOI.  On regional issues, 
Barak encouraged the U.S. to lead the international community 
in pressing Syria to remove its remaining intelligence 
apparatus from Lebanon.  He said pressure should start with 
the topic of Syrian operatives in Lebanon and eventually 
address Syrian WMD and Iranian nuclear aspirations.  Barak 
suggested that the U.S. should soon lower its military 
profile in Iraq by redeploying from urban centers to remote 
bases and focusing on training Iraqi troops.  Peres added 
that the Jordanians have a vital role to play in the economic 
dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
PERES AND BARAK BULLISH ON KADIMA, FEARFUL FOR LABOR 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶2. (C) On December 28, Senator Arlen Specter, accompanied by 
Joan Specter, staff assistants David DeBruyn and Tim Quest, 
and conoff met with former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Iris 
Sapir, MFA Counselor. Barak said that Ariel Sharon's actions 
in leaving Likud and forming Kadima have "clarified the 
dividing lines in the debate" between those who believe in a 
two-state solution and those who do not.  Barak expressed 
concern for the future of his own Labor party under the 
leadership of Amir Peretz, and said that union influence on 
the Labor platform under Peretz would relegate Labor to the 
status of a "niche party." 
 
¶3. (C) In a separate meeting, Senator Arlen Specter, 
accompanied by Joan Specter, staff assistants David DeBruyn 
and Tim Quest, and conoff met with Vice Premier Shimon Peres; 
Jill Marie Reinach, senior strategist; Iris Sapir, MFA 
Counselor; and Meir Nitzan, Mayor of Rishon Letzion.  Peres 
told the Senator that the creation of the Kadima Party 
brought about the "death" of the ideological right wing which 
would not accept a two-state solution to the conflict with 
the Palestinians.  He assured Senator Specter that Kadima 
would win enough seats in the general election to lead a 
coalition government "without the right wing and without the 
communists." 
 
¶4. (C) Peres introduced Senator Specter to Meir Nitzan, the 
mayor of Rishon Letzion, who recently declared himself a 
political independent after working in Labor politics for 25 
years.  Nitzan explained to the Senator that he was forced 
into leaving Labor because, "Peretz stole my party."  Peres 
and Nitzan then expressed their fears that Peretz was driving 
Labor to the extreme ideological left at a time when most 
Israelis want pragmatic, centrist political leadership. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
PERES ON HAMAS: THE LEOPARD CANNOT CHANGE ITS SPOTS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5. (C)  Peres said that if Hamas wins in the upcoming 
Palestinian elections without surrendering its arms, it would 
be a "wasted victory," because it will not bring the 
Palestinians closer to statehood.  Peres believes that Hamas, 
if victorious in the election, will not voluntarily disarm. 
He pointed out that Hamas is a religious party, while Fatah 
is a political party and commented that while "religious 
parties don't compromise, political parties do."  Thus, he 
said, Israel would prefer any coalition of old and new Fatah 
over Hamas. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
A MESSAGE FROM BARAK: KEEP THE HEAT ON SYRIA AND IRAN 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶6. (C) Barak asked Senator Specter to convey a message to the 
Administration that he believes there is a "great 
opportunity" for leverage against the Syrians, Iranians, and 
Hizballah.  Barak said that Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad 
is weak and vulnerable to increased international pressure. 
He said that the pressure on Syria must not be limited to the 
international investigation of the Hariri assassination in 
Lebanon, but should also include the removal of the Syrian 
intelligence apparatus from Lebanon.  Barak contends that 
strong U.S., French and UN support for the Lebanese 
government would quicken the Syrian withdrawal and diminish 
the threat from Hizballah.  Barak further asserted that 
Hizballah does not have the popular support of the Lebanese 
people and will eventually fold if isolated from Syrian 
support.  Finally, Barak suggested that such an international 
political campaign should focus on the broad range of issues 
we have with Syria: its support for Hizballah through its 
intelligence presence in Lebanon; Syrian WMD; and its ally 
Iran. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
PERES CONCERNED ABOUT SHIA ALLIANCE BETWEEN IRAN AND IRAQ 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶7. (C) Peres expressed great concern about Iran, and said 
that a Shia-dominated Iraq in alliance with Iran would be a 
"disaster."  He was hopeful that Kurdish and Sunni 
participation in the Iraqi government would limit Iranian 
influence.  He believed that the absence of a firm, 
international consensus on Iran's nuclear ambitions was 
providing Iran "room to play," and said that the Europeans 
are always opposed to military intervention because they have 
no army.  Peres concluded by saying that, "wars take time and 
are difficult, but the alternatives are often worse." 
 
---------------------------------- 
PERES AND BARAK ON JORDAN AND IRAQ 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Peres said he believes there is an economic role for 
the Jordanians to play in furthering the creation of a 
Palestinian state. Peres said that while domestic political 
concerns would prevent Jordan from participating in a 
three-way political dialogue, it is in the Jordanians' 
interest to advance economic cooperation between the Israelis 
and Palestinians.  He compared the importance of including 
the Jordanians in any discussion of the West Bank to the 
vital role the Egyptians played in the Israeli evacuation of 
the Gaza Strip. 
 
¶9. (C) Barak said he believes that the U.S. should "lower its 
profile" by "getting American faces off the streets of Najaf, 
Baquba and Baghdad" as soon as possible and "give the new 
Iraqi government a chance" to maintain security.  He said 
that U.S. forces should focus their efforts on training Iraqi 
troops, and reinforcing them when necessary from bases in 
more remote locations near the Jordanian and Syrian borders. 
Barak predicted that the newly elected Iraqi government will 
be politically obligated to ask the United States to withdraw 
its forces in order to maintain its legitimacy, and this 
request, in Barak's view, will afford the U.S. a good 
opportunity to redeploy forces. 
 
¶10. (U) CODEL Specter cleared this cable. 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
CRETZ