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C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001126 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KIEV FOR USAID 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/15 
TAGS: PGOV CASC BO
SUBJECT: Unexpectedly Active Opposition in Southwest 
Belarus 
 
Ref: 03 Minsk 1936 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: September 12 was the tenth anniversary of 
the Belarusian military shooting down a hot air balloon and 
killing the two American pilots.  Emboffs and local 
residents visited the crash site.  While in the region, 
Emboffs also visited local civil society leaders in three 
nearby small towns.  These visits demonstrated the 
essential role of leadership in mobilizing opposition to 
Lukashenko.  Civil groups in two of the towns had strong 
local leaders, and as a result were much more active than 
is the norm in Belarus, particularly in distributing 
underground newspapers.  In the third, an impressive 
newspaper editor has kept her embattled paper alive and 
spreading independent information, while the local 
political parties languish under weak leadership.  There 
was nothing out of the ordinary about the citizens of these 
towns, demonstrating the possibilities throughout Belarus, 
if only the opposition could find good leadership.  End 
summary. 
 
 
Balloonists Remembered 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On September 12 Poloff and PAO traveled to a small 
village outside the town of Beryoza, southwestern Belarus, 
to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the Belarusian 
military shooting down a hot air balloon and killing the 
two Amcit pilots.  Local residents guided Emboffs first to 
a marker placed by the GOB remembering, "two Americans who 
tragically died here."  However, the GOB marker was 
approximately a kilometer from the actual crash site. 
Locals then led the Emboffs to the actual site, where local 
residents themselves placed a large stone marker, marked 
with the date (12.9.1995) and the Belarusian word 
"Probatchte" [Forgive Us]. 
 
¶3. (U) Two villagers appeared and said they had witnessed 
the shoot-down and were the first to find the crashed 
balloon.  Contradicting the official Belarusian report, the 
two said the military helicopter opened fire immediately on 
the balloon, firing into the gondola.  They said from the 
state of the bodies it was clear one of the pilots was 
killed by large caliber gunfire and the other by the fall. 
The local residents all thanked Emboffs for visiting the 
site, with several opining their own government cares 
little for its citizens.  They also expressed outrage that 
the helicopter pilot received a medal from the state for 
these murders.  A local journalist covered the visit and 
will publish a story in a local newspaper.  Emboffs thanked 
the locals for caring for the site and remembering the 
pilots.  [Note: on September 13 an aide to Lukashenko 
published an editorial in the main state newspaper, 
Sovetskaya Belarus, lauding Lukashenko for having the 
courage to shoot down this hot air balloon since it was 
"spying" near a "secret Belarusian nuclear facility."] 
 
 
The Value of Leadership 
----------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Emboffs then visited three small towns in the area, 
Beryoza (pop. 30,000), Beloozyorsk (pop. 13,000) and 
Ivatsevichi (pop. 25,000).  In all three Emboffs found an 
atypically high level of political and social activity by 
local civil society.  One local leader stated that 
Belarusians are all the same across the country, but what 
makes this region an exception is the local pro-democracy 
leadership.  This certainly seemed true, and a weak party 
leadership in Ivatsevichi provided a strong counter 
example. 
 
 
Thriving Nationalists in Beryoza 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Beryoza is a small town whose main employer is a 
state owned tile factory.  The GOB invested in new Italian 
 
equipment for the factory, which cut in half the number of 
needed employees.  However, with Lukashenko's emphasis on 
social justice, the factory was not allowed to fire anyone. 
It now overproduces and employees are forced to take two 
months vacation for every month they work, thereby earning 
USD 150 every three months.  Management does better at USD 
350 a month.  Other workers in the region are also 
struggling; one person said as a baker she earns USD 70 a 
month, and a local collective farm manager stated 
agricultural workers earn USD 80 a month, but must work 26 
days a month. 
 
¶6. (C) Emboffs met with the leadership of local civil 
society.  All represented nationalist groups: the 
Belarusian Popular Front (BPF), Belarusian Language Society 
(BLS), and Vyasna human rights NGO.  Other groups are not 
active in the town.  This group faces the usual regime 
pressures against civil society, including: constant state 
propaganda which has convinced most to support Lukashenko 
because, "at least there is no war;" an independent 
journalist who was fined USD 200, with another USD 1,300 in 
court costs, for writing about election fraud; party 
members fired from their jobs; citizens told to vote for 
Lukashenko in early voting or lose their jobs; and an 
activist's son who was forced to join the state youth 
group, BRSM, while in the army.  They also explained that 
the GOB ordered the local post office to find 30 new 
subscribers for the main state newspaper, Sovietskaya 
Belarus.  When the post office only found 14, the post 
office's employees were forced to pay for the other 16 
subscriptions. 
 
¶7. (C) Despite these problems, Beryoza's pro-democracy 
forces are more active than most.  Unlike in many cities, 
they were not afraid to meet Emboffs in public or take them 
to an apartment.  Throughout the entire meeting our 
interlocutors were busy collating the current issue of 
their samizdat (underground) newspaper, Beryozavy Venik. 
The group distributes around 1,000 copies of this paper 
every two weeks, as well as hundreds of copies of other 
underground papers.  All thanked the USG for providing the 
funds for these papers, through the Embassy's Democracy 
Commission, and asked that the USG continue to help the 
free flow of information in Belarus.  They had also 
recently held a local convention to choose delegates for 
the 10+ coalition's single candidate process.  [Note: 
Because local groups are all nationalist, they elected pro- 
Milinkevich delegates.]  The raion (local district) 
ideology officer attended and denounced the convention, but 
did not interfere. 
 
 
Active Samizdat in Beloozyorsk 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (C) In Beloozyorsk Emboffs met with three pro-democracy 
members of the town council.  Beloozyorsk was the only city 
in Belarus where the opposition won a majority on the local 
council in 2003's municipal elections.  It then became the 
first town to hold bi-elections, where the opposition lost 
its majority (reftel).  Now, nine of the 30 local 
councilors are pro-democracy; two others resigned under 
heavy regime pressure.  Despite their minority status, they 
are still able to serve their city.  For example, much to 
the annoyance of the pro-Lukashenko majority, they are 
investigating how local officials misused the town's 
budget.  Even so, there are limits.  Local authorities 
blocked them from bringing in outside experts to discuss 
citizen rights regarding communal service payments (rent 
and utilities), and they are unable to rent an office to 
meet constituents. 
 
¶9. (C) One local councilor, Yury Guberavich, stated civil 
society in Beloozyorsk is sufficiently strong that the 
local government does not fire pro-democracy activists or 
remove their children from school, as is common elsewhere 
in Belarus.  Guberavich explained there is nothing special 
about the citizens of Beloozyorsk -- they are the same as 
the rest of Belarusians.  The difference is that 
Beloozyorsk civil society has effective leadership.  As a 
result, local parties have dozens of activists experienced 
 
at collecting signatures and speaking with voters. 
Guberavich and his team also run a local NGO resource 
center, which has a USG-funded risograph hidden in the 
city.  They use the machine to print thousands of samizdat 
newspapers every month for Beloozyorsk, Beryoza and 
Ivatsevichi.  Their main paper is Altanka, with 1,250 
copies twice a month.  A local unregistered women's group, 
Tais, has a paper with 700 copies a month, and there are 
several others.  Activists in both Beryoza and Beloozyorsk 
said they attract new members through clinics offering free 
legal advice. 
 
 
Mixed News in Ivatsevichi 
------------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) In Ivatsevichi Emboffs met with Lidiya Tselvyiko, 
editor of the local independent newspaper Gazeta dlya Vas 
[Newspaper for You], and Ivan Vabischevich, the local 
leader of the United Civic Party (UCP).  Tselvyiko seemed 
to be an energetic and determined journalist.  She stated 
repression by authorities has greatly increased in the past 
year.  Her staff used to have no problem speaking with 
local authorities, but for the past year they have been 
denied access.  Even though the newspaper is registered, in 
May the city stopped allowing her to sell the paper through 
state newspaper kiosks.  This cut weekly circulation from 
8,000 to 6,000.  Gazeta dlya Vas tried to compensate by 
creating a newspaper delivery network, but police routinely 
arrest the paperboys and hold them for three hours, so 
there is very high staff turnover.  Local BKGB often call 
in her journalists for questioning.  The paper was also 
fined USD 350 recently for "slander," after accidentally 
misspelling someone's name in an article.  Despite these 
problems, the editor insisted her paper does not self- 
censure and remains the most popular paper in the city. 
Even though local officials warn businesses away, she said 
most still advertise in her paper.  In contrast, she said 
the local state paper has a weekly circulation of 9,000, 
but only because the state forces pensioners to subscribe 
and deducts the cost from their pensions. 
 
¶11. (C) On the other hand, the local UCP leader was not 
impressive.  Vabischevich is an elderly gentleman, given to 
long bouts of pointless chatter.  His personal 
characteristics are evident in the weak party structure in 
Ivatsevichi.  The UCP and BPF both have small structures, 
and there is a small group of pro-democracy communists. 
None of these parties' branches are registered.  They 
advertised their local delegate convention in Gazeta dlya 
Vas for several weeks, but still only attracted 28 
participants.  To avoid police harassment, they did not 
list the location in their advertisement, which likely hurt 
attendance.  The newspaper editor later explained that five 
years ago the BPF had a strong branch in Ivatsevichi, but 
it fell apart after its leader was fired from his job and 
quit politics. 
 
¶12. (C) Comment: After visiting these three towns, Post 
agrees with Gubarevich that leadership is key.  Beryoza and 
Beloozyorsk have strong pro-democracy leaders, who are able 
to operate and spread their message, despite regime 
efforts.  Ivatsevichi's newspaper editor has built a 
strong, if struggling news outlet.  Its parties, though, 
clearly show the lack of effective leadership.  Although 
western Belarusians may be slightly more prone to political 
activism, due to historical and cultural legacies, these 
examples show what is possible if the opposition were able 
to provide effective, strong leadership. 
 
 
KROL