This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PANAMA 001183 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
VANCOUVER FOR CG ARREAGA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM POLITICS FOREIGN POLICY
SUBJECT: PANAMA'S SOLIDARIDAD-LIBERAL NACIONAL MERGER WILL 
INCREASE OPPOSITION POTENCY 
 
REF: A. PANAMA 350 
 
     ¶B. PANAMA 629 
 
Summary 
-------- 
¶1. (SBU) Two of Panama's small opposition parties, the 
National Liberal Party (PLN) and the Solidarity Party 
(Partido Solidaridad), are reportedly close to agreement on 
merging into a single political party.  A merger between the 
two would lend Solidaridad, the larger of the two parties, a 
wider base of support, and would ensure the survival of the 
PLN and its political principles.  Merger negotiations are 
taking place in a legislature whose largest opposition party, 
the Panamenistas (formerly Arnulfistas), lost the presidency 
to Martin Torrijos in a crippling electoral rout while 
Torrijos's Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) won an 
absolute majority of legislative seats.  With an identity 
crisis splitting the Panamenistas, Solidaridad, whose 
presidential candidate Guillermo Endara took second behind 
Torrijos with 31% of the popular vote, is looking toward a 
merger to help gather its strength.  End Summary. 
 
State of Talks 
-------------- 
¶2. (SBU) On April 27, PLN president Anibal Galindo told the 
press that a merger with Solidaridad would be complete by the 
end of the year.  According to Solidaridad secretary general 
Jorge Ricardo Fabrega, the two parties have discussed a 
possible merger for several years, but now are close to a 
final agreement.  In an April 28 meeting with PolOffs, 
Galindo said that he has been actively working on a merger 
since becoming PLN president last May.  He continued that the 
two party platforms have no major conflicts.  Each party must 
hold a separate convention and vote on the merger, followed 
by a joint convention to formalize the decision.  Both 
Solidaridad and PLN considered the MOLIRENA Party 
(Nationalist Republican Liberal Movement) as a potential 
partner in the merger, but dropped the idea due to 
intra-MOLIRENA infighting.  (Note:  MOLIRENA, formerly a 
small but significant voice of opposition, is now so small it 
teeters on the brink of extinction.  It currently holds three 
seats in the legislature.  If it loses any more seats, 
Panamanian law requires it to disband.  One former MOLIRENA 
legislator, Marilyn Vallarino, ran and won on a Solidarity 
ticket last May.  End Note.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Both parties' leadership are using the press to 
portray the merger in a proactive and positive light. 
Galindo told La Prensa on April 6 that the two parties "have 
an enormous responsibility to be a serious and responsible 
opposition," and that they would continue discussing themes 
of national interest together with Solidaridad and the 
parties of the National Coordination of Opposition. 
 
A View from the Inside 
---------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) In a March 29 meeting with PolOff, Fabrega listed 
difficulties facing the ruling PRD that he said a legislative 
opposition could effectively exploit if it is strong and 
focused.  According to Fabrega, although the PRD is riddled 
with internal disputes, it refuses to coordinate with other 
parties due to its 41-seat absolute majority in the 78-seat 
legislature.  Fabrega noted three key PRD political problems: 
 the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the U.S., the Supreme 
Court controversy, and Social Security reform.  Fabrega said 
the domestic controversy over an FTA with the U.S. would be 
compounded if Panama is unable to conclude the agreement at 
the next meeting, and that such a failure would be 
"politically bad" for Torrijos.  (Note:  Embassy assumes that 
a final high-level bilateral FTA meeting will not be 
scheduled if success is not assured in advance.  End Note.) 
Fabrega called Torrijos's February 2005 creation of a Justice 
Commission to recommend changes to the Supreme Court a 
do-nothing response (see Reftel B).  He also said the PRD had 
not engaged in genuine consultation with other parties on 
Social Security (CSS) reforms. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Solidaridad, with seven seats, is looking to 
increase its presence in the legislature, but the PLN, with 
three, is merely looking to survive.  Galindo expressed 
frustration at the inability of small parties to make any 
political impact in the present legislature.  Galindo 
commiserated that the PLN did not field a presidential 
candidate in the last elections despite having a clear plan 
for governing, though Galindo ran as second vice-presidential 
candidate on the then-incumbent Panamenista ticket.  Panama's 
system of electing representatives is also weighted against 
smaller parties.  Voting districts all have a set number of 
Assembly seats and all but the last seat are determined by 
popular vote.  The last seat is then given, party-list style, 
to the party with a plurality of the votes in the district. 
It is possible, under this system, for a small party to win 
more popular votes in a district and still lose a seat to 
another party.  This was the case for the PLN this year, 
which also managed to win only six local elections throughout 
the country.  The PRD, however, picked up an additional 10-11 
national seats based on this system. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶6. (SBU) Whether a merged Solidaridad-PLN will effectively 
overtake the Panamenistas as the primary opposition party 
remains to be seen.  Solidaridad, sometimes referred to as 
"PRD-light," has had legislator bleed-over from the PRD, but 
as a center-to-right party, lacks the populist bent of the 
PRD.  Solidaridad, being a small party, must fight for every 
vote, and rarely are its legislators elected in back-to-back 
terms.  However, the Panamenistas, with 16 Assembly seats, 
have been conspicuous in their lack of organized opposition 
to the PRD since elections in May 2004.  Former president 
Mireya Moscoso's step-down as Panamenista party president in 
April has left potential replacements jockeying for position 
(see Reftel A).  The current vice-president, now acting 
president, Marcos Ameglio is a party outsider and lacks 
enthusiastic party support.  The party must also rectify the 
image problem it inherited from Moscoso and bounce back from 
its crushing defeat at the polls.  Its candidate, Jose Miguel 
Aleman, was voted down last May on public perceptions of 
rampant corruption.  Solidaridad pulled 31% of the popular 
vote largely due to the popularity of its candidate, former 
president Guillermo Endara, who had broken with Moscoso and 
the Panamenistas.  Despite their derisory showing in 2004 
(16% of the vote), the Panamenistas have a large traditional 
base of support which is not likely to abandon them.  Whether 
the party will ever achieve mass appeal again or whether 
Solidaridad-PLN can capture the mantle of chief opposition 
party will become more clear in the coming months. 
 
WATT