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Viewing cable 04AMMAN7336, CABINET SHAKE-UP EXPECTED

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
04AMMAN7336 2004-09-01 17:57 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Amman
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 007336 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2014 
TAGS: PGOV JO
SUBJECT: CABINET SHAKE-UP EXPECTED 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 6213 
     B. AMMAN 6545 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  PM Fayez has told the press a cabinet 
shuffle will occur soon, probably by early October.  For 
different reasons, he and ministers heavily involved in 
Jordan's economic and social reform successes appear safe for 
now, but a degree of royal disfavor with Fayez remains 
evident.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
WILL FAYEZ STAY OR WILL HE GO? 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (C)  With no immediate crisis to focus their minds, 
Amman's political observers are engaged in widespread 
speculation about the future of the Fayez Cabinet.  The Prime 
Minister fueled the rumor mill when he told an influential 
local daily on August 28 that he expected a shuffle to take 
place after October 1 -- when he is due to respond to the 
King's demand for a status report on the government's 
progress in its first year (ref a).  This has naturally 
further disgruntled his entire cabinet, whose members have 
been made instant lame ducks just as the King is trying to 
energize them into post-summer activism. 
 
3.  (C)   With Jordan's political system still highly 
dependent on the motivations and actions of one man, the 
guessing game on the cabinet and PM,s future is fueled 
primarily by supposed insights into the thinking of King 
Abdullah.  The King's mid-July letter expressing 
dissatisfaction with the performance of Fayez, whose 
principal strength is his perceived closeness to the King, 
provided unusual open evidence of rifts within ruling 
circles.  Privately, GID Chief/National Security Advisor 
Sa'ad Kheir and Court Minister al-Rifai say frankly that 
Fayez has all too sadly met their low expectations. 
(Ironically, it is Kheir's security apparatus that receives a 
significant share of the blame from reform activists for the 
government's failure thus far to move forward on its 
political development agenda.)   With the scent of blood in 
the air, aspiring prime ministers in the 
cabinet -- Deputy PM Halaiqa and Planning Minister Awadallah 
-- make no secret of their own ambitions. 
 
------------------------------------ 
GOVERNMENT'S INEPTITUDE WEAKENS KING 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C)  The starting point of reports of change is the 
patchy performance of the Fayez government.  Criticism of 
Fayez focuses on managerial ineptness, a certain obtuseness 
on policy details, and political abilities that do not 
stretch beyond a quest for personal popularity through 
regional travel and humanitarian handouts from the PM's slush 
fund.  His efforts to woo parliament have yielded minimal 
results, and the King appears to have cut short the summer's 
extraordinary parliamentary session out of frustration that 
it was not smartly adopting into permanent legislation over 
200 temporary laws that form the foundation of his 
socio-economic vision for Jordan.  To keep the ball rolling 
on his broad reform agenda, it is the King (not the PM) who 
is seen on a daily basis briefing interested parties, 
cajoling his senior team, and demanding performance from the 
civil service.  Awadallah expressed to Charge his concern 
that this approach ties the King too closely to the ups and 
downs of progress, by removing the traditional shield the 
cabinet and PM have provided to the palace, and insulation of 
the King from criticism on day-to-day performance. 
Meanwhile, with a parliament that proved disappointing to 
almost every faction in Jordan, the political field has once 
again been left open to the professional associations, 
stacked with hardy survivors of the 1960s and 1970s when they 
and the Muslim Brotherhood alone were permitted political 
room.  They traffic in mindless rhetoric of 
anti-normalization, anti-semitism, and knee-jerk anti-U.S. 
policy, in which all of Jordan's ills are laid on foreigners' 
doorsteps.  Victims of the recent flare-up in this campaign 
included a leading parliamentary reform spirit, Raed Qaqish, 
who received little support from a government supposedly 
committed to quieting anti-normalization forces. 
 
5.  (C)  With Fayez, weaknesses seen as the real source of 
the cabinet,s problems, his removal would be the logical 
solution.  However, Fayez came into office so clearly 
identified as the King,s man, that his sacking would be a 
painful admission of failure by Abdullah.  More 
fundamentally, the King has limited options for a successor. 
Royal Court Minister al-Rifai is having a strong run of 
success advising the King, who seems to have unqualified 
admiration for this able, smooth, and often wise scion of a 
family which has produced two prime ministers already. 
Samir,s day as PM seems inevitable, but he still is 
unseasoned, with no record in management or public speaking. 
If selected now, he could suffer the same fate as Fayez, whom 
he replaced at the palace.  Other candidates carry unwanted 
baggage.  The choice of a Palestinian, such as Deputy PM 
Halaiqa or Planning Minister Awadallah, could generate 
domestic headaches the King probably wants to avoid, although 
Halaiqa has a commendable combination of political, 
managerial, and economic talents.  Awadallah, in his star 
reform performance, has alienated parliament and other 
sectors by breaking from traditional patronage practices on 
which these groups thrive.  So, most senior government, 
palace and security contacts predict to Charge and Embassy 
officers that Fayez will stay, despite his flaws. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
WITH CABINET REORGANIZATION CERTAIN, HOW FAR WILL IT GO? 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
6.  (C)  Regardless of whether Fayez stays or goes, it is a 
foregone conclusion that there will be a reshuffle of some 
kind.  With parliament due to return in early November, it is 
time for the palace and government to retrench.  Two 
ministerial offsites are planned, a favored device of this 
King to strategize, issue commands, and mobilize his 
reformist allies.  According to such insiders as Awadallah, 
several ministries are likely to be restructured.  For 
example, some doubled-up ministries such as Tourism and 
Environment will be split again to relieve overburdened 
ministers.   Complete duds such as Political Reform and 
Parliamentary Affairs Minister Daoudiyah will go, as well as 
Health's Darwazeh.  IT minister Zu'bi, a strong reformist 
ally of the King, seems determined to leave for personal 
reasons, perhaps to be replaced by the miscast and 
accident-prone spokesperson, Asma Khader, or Jordan's 
ambassador to Washington, Karim Kawar.  Others rumored to be 
on the chopping block are Labor Minister Amjad Majali and 
Municipal Affairs Minister Amal Farhan.  Rumors persist that 
Muasher recently fell out of favor over his attempts to 
"clarify" the King's recent critical comments about the PA 
leadership (ref b), but no one in authority has endorsed that 
speculation with us. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
OTHER CHANGES UNDERWAY: PRINCE FAISAL IN NEW POSITION 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
7.  (C)  Against this backdrop, other significant changes in 
King Abdullah's ruling circle are quietly underway.  Prince 
Faisal is to be shifted from command of the Air Force into a 
still-evolving position, coordinator for Air Force projects 
or perhaps a second vice-chairman of the Armed Forces.  The 
precise source of the King's discontent with Faisal is 
unclear, but a recent spate of jet accidents under Faisal's 
watch may have played 
into the King's decision.  Faisal's likely replacement is Air 
Force director of operations, Abd al-Halleem Mahfzah. 
However, it may only be temporary, as many observers believe 
he is not one to "knock heads" and bring into line many 
strong personalities moving in many directions.  Mahfzah is 
otherwise able and has spoken to Charge of his absolute 
commitment to strong relations with Israeli counterparts. 
JAF Vice Chair Nsairat has already been cashiered, promoted 
and retired, and said to have vague promises of a position 
outside the military.  The motivations for his removal appear 
to be complex, by-products of his rivalry with the chairman 
and perhaps of the need to make room for Faisal at GHQ, seen 
as not big enough for two Air Force chieftains. 
 
------------------ 
THE KING'S DILEMMA 
------------------ 
 
8.  (C)  The impending changes have preoccupied Ammanites, 
who seem more concerned with the personalities involved than 
with the substance of the issues at hand, including Fayez's 
anticipated status report on his government's accomplishment 
in the first year.  It highlights once again the dilemma 
facing a reform-minded King who is, in many ways, ahead of 
his people on these issues.  Pulled forward by his own vision 
(and those of a few select advisors around him), he is 
restrained by elements of society that either feel threatened 
by reform, don't understand it, or simply prefer traditions 
that have served them and their families well (with Fayez 
fitting the last category).  As one journalist recently 
noted: "The King is more liberal than the prime minister, who 
is more liberal than the parliament, which is more liberal 
than the people."  The King remains partly constrained by the 
dilemma that it is the leadership of his own loyalist base -- 
personified by Fayez and much of parliament, and representing 
the tribal and rural conservatives of the East Bank -- which 
is failing to meet his high standards.  Therefore, he may be 
treading warily as he amends his cabinet, strengthening its 
reformist wings but retaining Fayez for his symbolic value, 
if for little else. 
 
Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site 
through the State Department's SIPRNET home page. 
HALE