This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001005 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2012 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PTER ASEC PINR NP GON
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT DISSOLVED; ELECTIONS CALLED FOR 
NOVEMBER; PM KICKED OUT OF PARTY 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 996 
     ¶B. KATHMANDU 995 
     ¶C. KATHMANDU 740 (EXDIS) 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski, Reasons 1.5(b),(d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  Nepal's King on May 22 announced the 
dissolution of Parliament and called elections for November 
13 after a faction of the ruling party refused to support 
Prime Minister Deuba's attempt to extend the state of 
emergency.  The ruling party then kicked out the PM May 23. 
Three Ministers resigned May 23, and the PM will likely 
appoint a new Cabinet.  Deuba's move was constitutional, 
experts judged, but raises many questions including what 
happens if circumstances prevent elections from being held 
and whether the emergency can be extended.  After dissolution 
Parliament's upper house takes on many of the roles of the 
lower house, including deciding on the emergency, but Deuba 
does not likely have the votes there to secure an extension. 
Alternatively, the emergency could be extended by executive 
fiat.  The army says recent developments will have no effect 
on their operations.  Deuba has tried to make the best of a 
bad situation, but will be under tremendous pressure to bring 
about positive change in the coming months to justify his 
actions.  End Summary. 
 
Parliament Dissolved, Elections Slated, PM Excommunicated 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) On the recommendation of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur 
Deuba's Cabinet, Nepal's King Gyanendra dissolved the lower 
house of Parliament late on May 22 and set fresh elections 
for November 13.  His announcement followed an inconclusive 
and hastily convoked meeting of Nepali Congress Party (NCP) 
Members of Parliament earlier in the evening.  The MPs 
convened after a stormy meeting of the Party's Central 
Working Committee (CWC) - dominated by supporters of Deuba's 
political rival, NCP President and former PM Girija Prasad 
("G.P.") Koirala - which decided not to support Deuba's 
efforts to extend the state of emergency in effect since 
November 26, 2001.  (Note:  According to PM Deuba, he acted 
to preempt a no-confidence motion reportedly planned for the 
afternoon of May 23 (Septel).  End Note.)  Another CWC 
meeting held May 23 decided to strip Deuba of his NCP 
membership. 
 
Three Ministers Resign; New Cabinet a Possibility 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶3. (C) Late in the day Post learned that three Ministers had 
resigned:  Ram Sharan Mahat at the Finance Ministry; Amod 
Prasad Upadhyaya at Education and Sports; and Rajendra Kharel 
at Women, Children and Social Welfare.  Tirtha Man Shakya, a 
lawyer and former Chief Secretary (Nepal's highest-ranking 
civil servant), confirmed that after dissolving Parliament 
the PM is free to dismiss his cabinet and appoint "anyone off 
the street."  Speculation is rife in the capital about who 
will be brought in to serve in an interim cabinet. 
 
Deuba's Gambit Constitutional 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) As related Ref C, Deuba was constitutionally within 
his rights to dissolve Parliament and call for new elections. 
 The King, as constitutional monarch, was then compelled to 
accede to the PM's request.  Under the current 1990 
constitution, a precedent was set when former Prime Minister 
G.P. Koirala dissolved Parliament and called for new 
elections in 1994 after members of his own party withdrew 
their support on a key policy vote.  The Supreme Court upheld 
Koirala's 1994 move, but subsequent attempts to dissolve 
Parliament by a minority government PM in 1995 and a 
coalition government PM in 1998 were blocked by the Court 
because these PMs moved after no-confidence motions were 
already underway.  In acting before a no-confidence motion 
could be tabled, Deuba seems to have taken into account the 
Court's inevitable scrutiny on this count. 
 
But Raises Thorny Constitutional Issues 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Even so, Deuba's actions raise a number of 
complicated constitutional issues.  For example, Nepal's 
constitution does not include a provision for what happens 
when elections cannot be held within a specified period of 
time, in this case six months, as may eventually be the case 
given Nepal's widespread Maoist insurgency.  Although Deuba's 
actions to date have been constitutional, questions remain 
about what would happen if the November 13 elections do not 
come off or are contested.  According to Tirtha Man Shakya, 
simply setting a date was enough to fulfill the 
constitutional requirement.  Whether or not elections are 
actually held on that date is immaterial.  Shakya admitted, 
however, that although he himself considered this view 
legally sound, it was subject to review by the courts, who 
may take a different view.  He added that Nepal's 
constitution is oddly silent on the subject of what measures 
would have to be taken in the wake of a failure to hold 
Parliamentary elections.  Again, he said, this is a matter 
for the courts to decide. 
 
How to Hold Elections? 
---------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) How to hold elections within six months, as required 
by the constitution, is the greatest challenge now facing 
Nepal's democracy.  The army has declared itself ready to 
guarantee the security of the elections, but under emergency 
conditions this task would be problematic at best.  Shakya 
suggested that the constitution provides one way out by 
defining a quorum in Parliament as twenty-five percent of 
members.  Thus a partial election could be held - in as few 
as 52 of Nepal's 205 constituencies - that would serve to 
constitute a new body. 
 
Upper House Takes Lower House Powers 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (C) Some critics alleged that the emergency will lapse 
because the bill to extend it has not yet been introduced 
into the upper house, where it must "mature" for five days 
before a vote can take place.  Legal experts demurred, 
however, stating that under the constitution the upper house 
takes up the powers of the lower house when the latter has 
been dissolved.  Therefore, because the bill has already been 
introduced and has matured in the lower chamber, the upper 
house can go ahead and vote on it.  (Note:  Deuba's action 
dissolved the lower house, the House of Representatives, but 
the upper house - the National Assembly - remains in place. 
The National Assembly has sixty members, including ten "of 
high reputation" nominated by the King; 35 elected by the 
lower house; and three each elected by local officials in 
Nepal's five development regions.  End Note.) 
 
Emergency Unlikely to Pass Upper House 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Under the constitution, following the expiration of 
the initial six-month period, the state of emergency can be 
extended an additional six months by a two-thirds vote of 
Parliament.  Since the lower house has been dissolved, it 
falls to the upper house to vote on an extension.  As 23 of 
the National Assembly's 59 sitting members belong to the main 
opposition party, the CPN-UML, Deuba will be unable to extend 
the state of emergency for the full six months without UML 
support.  (Note:  Deuba told the Ambassador May 23 that he 
does not believe that he has enough votes in the upper house 
to get the motion approved (Septel).  End Note.) 
 
¶9. (C) However, by keeping the Assembly out of session, he 
will be able to continue the emergency for an additional 
three months by having the Cabinet ask the King to issue an 
Ordinance to that effect.  Alternatively, should the state of 
emergency lapse the PM could have the King declare a new 
emergency, starting the clock over again.  Shakya judges that 
in this way the government could declare successive 
emergencies, with only a gap of a day - or even hours - 
between them. 
 
General: No Impact on RNA Operations 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶10. (C) Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Pyar Jung Bahadur 
Thapa said that dissolution of Parliament and possible 
expiration of the state of emergency will have "no immediate 
impact" on Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) operations.  General 
Thapa did not want to speculate much beyond the near term, 
however. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (C) Painted into a corner by the machinations of 
political rivals, PM Deuba has tried to make the most of a 
bad situation.  By calling new elections he bought time to 
clean house and continue the prosecution of the campaign 
against the Maoists, who of late seem to be feeling the heat. 
 By his actions he has shown himself conversant with twelve 
years of constitutional legal precedent, and he shows every 
indication of continuing to use the law to his own advantage. 
 Deuba may have six months to a year in which to justify his 
actions and make his mark - to get his country back on an 
even political and economic keel.  The pressure for him to 
perform is now greater than ever, as his critics will take 
every opportunity to drag him down. 
MALINOWSKI