This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

151209Z Feb 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8699

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                  ------------------C60C21  151209Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8228
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000754 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 02/14/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI ZANU PF MDC
SUBJECT:  MUGABE SAID TO BE BEHIND OVERTURE TO OPPOSITION 
 
REF:  HARARE 628 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00754  01 OF 02  151209Z 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE IS BEHIND OVERTURES MADE TO THE 
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) IN LATE 
JANUARY BY SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, 
ACCORDING TO A SENIOR MDC ADVISOR.  THE SECRET CONTACTS ARE 
CONTINUING BETWEEN ENVOYS FROM BOTH SIDES AND MIGHT LEAD TO 
A MEETING BETWEEN MUGABE AND A SENIOR MDC REPRESENTATIVE 
LATER THIS MONTH.  WE SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT THE PRESIDENT 
INTENDS TO GIVE ANY REAL POWER TO THE MDC BUT, RATHER, HIS 
OFFER OF A GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY IS CERTAINLY 
DESIGNED TO COOPT HIS OPPOSITION.  MDC LEADER MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI IS LIKELY ENGAGING IN THIS DIALOGUE IN AN EFFORT 
 
SIPDIS 
TO AVOID FURTHER GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED BLOODSHED AND, WE 
SUSPECT, IS ATTRACTED BY THE OPPORTUNITY FOR HIS PARTY TO 
HAVE A VOICE IN DECIDING THE WAY FORWARD FOR ZIMBABWE. 
TSVANGIRAI WILL HAVE A VERY TOUGH -- IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE -- 
 
SIPDIS 
TASK CONVINCING MANY IN HIS PARTY'S OWN LEADERSHIP OF THE 
VALUE OF JOINING HANDS WITH ZANU-PF, MANY OF WHOM BLAME 
MUGABE PERSONALLY FOR ZIMBABWE'S SLIDE INTO POLITICAL AND 
ECONOMIC TURMOIL.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ZANU-MDC SECRET TALKS CONTINUE 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) WE REPORTED REFTEL THAT SPEAKER OF ZIMBABWE'S 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00754  01 OF 02  151209Z 
PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA IN LATE JANUARY SENT FEELERS 
TO THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC), PROPOSING THAT 
THE OPPOSITION PARTY JOIN A GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY. 
ALTHOUGH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI CONSIDERED THE 
DETAILS OF MNANGAGWA'S INITIAL OFFER UNACCEPTABLE, HE 
AGREED TO CONTINUE THE SECRET DIALOGUE. 
 
¶3.  (C) ON FEBRUARY 14, MDC SENIOR ADVISOR CLIVE PUZEY 
(PROTECT) TOLD CHARGE AND POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF THAT 
CONTACTS HAVE CONTINUED SINCE HIS FEBRUARY 2 CONVERSATION 
WITH US (REFTEL).  ACCORDING TO PUZEY, IT IS NOW CLEAR THAT 
PRESIDENT MUGABE HIMSELF IS BEHIND MNANGAGWA'S OFFER. 
PUZEY REPORTED THAT THE PRESIDENT'S LONG-TIME CONFIDANT, 
CATHOLIC PRIEST FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI, S.J., HAD RECENTLY 
MET WITH PUZEY ONE-ON-ONE.  IN THAT MEETING, FIDELIS HAD 
CLAIMED THAT MUGABE IS UNCERTAIN OF HIS CONTINUED HOLD ON 
POWER, DISTRUSTS THOSE AROUND HIM, AND IS AWARE THAT, IF 
DEVELOPMENTS HERE CONTINUE ON THEIR PRESENT COURSE, 
ZIMBABWE IS FACING CERTAIN ECONOMIC DISASTER.  ALL OF THESE 
FACTORS, FIDELIS OSTENSIBLY SAID, HAD LED MUGABE TO MAKE 
THE OVERTURE. 
 
¶4.  (C) PUZEY REPORTED THAT TSVANGIRAI, WITH WHOM HE HAD 
SPOKEN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, IS WILLING TO AGREE TO AN 
AMNESTY FOR MUGABE AND THE PAYMENT OF A PENSION UPON THE 
PRESIDENT'S DEPARTURE FROM OFFICE.  TSVANGIRAI REPORTEDLY 
TOLD PUZEY THAT HE IS INCLINED TO JOIN A GOVERNMENT OF 
NATIONAL UNITY IF IT RESULTS IN RESTORATION OF THE RULE OF 
LAW AND BIPARTISAN AGREEMENT ON THE WAY FORWARD FOR 
ZIMBABWE.  IF THOSE IMPORTANT GOALS ARE ACHIEVED, 
TSVANGIRAI IS YOUNG AND WILLING TO WAIT ANOTHER FEW YEARS 
 
SIPDIS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00754  01 OF 02  151209Z 
FOR HIS SHOT AT THE PRESIDENCY.  THE ALTERNATIVE TO 
REACHING SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT, PUZEY INSISTED, IS 
BLOODSHED ON A SCALE NEVER BEFORE SEEN IN ZIMBABWE, AS 
MUGABE WILL UNLEASH INDISCRIMINATE KILLING IN A BRUTAL 
EFFORT TO MAINTAIN HIS GRIP ON POWER. 
 
CONTACTS VERY CLOSE-HOLD 
------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (C) PUZEY SAID THAT ZANU-PF GO-BETWEEN GOODSON NGUNI 
HAS ASKED HIM TO BRIEF THE BRITISH AND US ON THE STATUS OF 
THESE TALKS, WHICH REMAINED VERY CLOSE-HOLD.  HE NOTED 
THAT, IN ADDITION TO HIMSELF, MUGABE, TSVANGIRAI, NGUNI, 
AND FATHER FIDELIS, ONLY A SMALL GROUP OF PEOPLE ARE AWARE 
OF THE ONGOING CONTACTS BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES: 
TSVANGIRAI'S ADVISOR GANDI MUDZINGWA, COMMERCIAL FARMERS 
 
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UNION PRESIDENT TIM HENWOOD, AND STANBIC BANK MANAGING 
DIRECTOR GREG BRACKENRIDGE. 
 
NEXT STEPS 
---------- 
 
¶6.  (C) PUZEY SAID HE AND NGUNI HAD AGREED THAT MORNING 
THAT A SENIOR MDC REPRESENTATIVE SHOULD MEET WITH PRESIDENT 
MUGABE TO AGREE ON NEXT STEPS.   PUZEY AND NGUNI DECIDED TO 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8700 
 
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INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00 
      SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------C60C2C  151209Z /38 
O 151209Z FEB 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8229 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000754 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 02/14/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI ZANU PF MDC
SUBJECT:  MUGABE SAID TO BE BEHIND OVERTURE TO OPPOSITION 
 
PROCEED ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING ELABORATE SCENARIO, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00754  02 OF 02  151209Z 
WHICH PRESUMABLY PROVIDES COVER FOR A MUGABE MEETING WITH 
THE MDC.  PAUL NYATHI, AN MDC MP WHO IS WELL-RESPECTED 
ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM, WOULD BE ASKED TO PROPOSE ON 
THE FLOOR OF PARLIAMENT THAT LEGISLATORS SING "HAPPY 
BIRTHDAY" TO PRESIDENT MUGABE ON HIS BIRTHDAY FEBRUARY 21. 
NYATHI WOULD FURTHER SUGGEST THAT A BIPARTISAN DELEGATION 
OF MPS BE SENT TO DELIVER A BIRTHDAY CARD TO THE PRESIDENT. 
ONCE AT STATE HOUSE, NYATHI WILL BE PULLED ASIDE BY FATHER 
FIDELIS TO MEET ONE-ON-ONE WITH MUGABE, WHO REPORTEDLY IS 
PREPARED TO PARTICIPATE IN SUCH A MEETING.  THE PRESIDENT 
AND NYATHI WOULD THEN DISCUSS THE ARRANGEMENTS FOR 
PROCEEDING WITH FORMAL NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES, 
INCLUDING AGREEING ON A VENUE OUTSIDE OF ZIMBABWE. 
 
TOUGH SELL 
---------- 
 
¶7.  (C) THE CHARGE COMMENTED THAT, IF NOT HANDLED 
CAREFULLY, TSVANGIRAI'S NEGOTIATIONS WITH ZANU-PF COULD 
TEAR APART THE MDC.  COULD TSVANGIRAI CONVINCE THE MDC 
LEADERSHIP AND GENERAL MEMBERSHIP TO JOIN A GOVERNMENT OF 
NATIONAL UNITY?  IT WOULD BE A TOUGH SELL, PUZEY 
ACKNOWLEDGED.  HE THOUGHT THAT MDC MPS DAVID COLTART, MIKE 
AURET, SR., AND TRUDY STEVENSON WOULD BE THE MOST DIFFICULT 
TO CONVINCE.  IF THE TALKS ARE CONSTRUCTIVE AND RESULT IN A 
MUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE AGREEMENT, THOUGH, PUZEY MUSED THAT 
PAUL NYATHI COULD BE A KEY FIGURE IN BRINGING HIS FELLOW 
MDC LEGISLATORS ALONG. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00754  02 OF 02  151209Z 
 
¶8.  (C) THE ELABORATE ARRANGEMENTS FOR A MUGABE-NYATHI 
MEETING AT STATE HOUSE ARE UNDERSTANDABLE, AS WE SUSPECT 
BOTH SIDES ARE NERVOUS ABOUT KEEPING THEIR DISCUSSIONS 
SECRET.  A MORE DIFFICULT EXERCISE IS ANALYZING THE LIKELY 
 
SIPDIS 
MOTIVATIONS OF MUGABE AND TSVANGIRAI FOR ENGAGING IN THIS 
DIALOGUE.  MUGABE MUST RECOGNIZE THAT HE IS UNLIKELY TO WIN 
A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THAT IS FREE AND FAIR, BUT HE HAS 
MADE ABUNDANTLY CLEAR THAT HE IS WILLING TO USE ANY AND ALL 
METHODS TO WIN.  AT THE SAME TIME, THE PRESIDENT REALIZES 
THAT SUCH A VICTORY WOULD COME AT A VERY HIGH PRICE IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, AND HE MUST FIGURE IT IS WORTH 
EXPLORING ALTERNATIVE MEANS OF HOLDING ON TO POWER.  AS A 
BRITISH DIPLOMAT REMARKED TO US, HOWEVER, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI 
IS LIVING IN A FANTASYLAND IF HE THINKS THAT MUGABE, IN 
EXTENDING THIS APPARENT OLIVE BRANCH, INTENDS TO REACH A 
GENUINE POWER-SHARING AGREEMENT WITH THE MDC.  WE WOULD 
WAGER THAT MUGABE'S OBJECTIVE IS TO COOPT HIS OPPOSITION 
AND THAT, IF THE ATTEMPT IS UNSUCCESSFUL, HE WILL RESORT TO 
HIS TIME-TESTED SUCCESSFUL TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND 
INTIMIDATION.   NGUNI'S PUTATIVE REQUEST THAT PUZEY BRIEF 
US AND THE BRITISH IS INTERESTING, AND SUGGESTS THAT MUGABE 
WANTS TO SEND US A SIGNAL THAT HE IS TRYING TO BE 
CONSTRUCTIVE. 
 
¶9.  (C) IN AGREEING TO ENGAGE IN THIS DIALOGUE, TSVANGIRAI 
APPEARS TO BE MOTIVATED PRIMARILY BY A DESIRE TO AVOID 
BLOODSHED HE BELIEVES WOULD OTHERWISE BE INEVITABLE AND TO 
ELICIT RESTORATION OF THE RULE OF LAW.  IN ADDITION, THE 
OFFER OF 40 PERCENT OF CABINET SEATS MUST BE, ON THE 
SURFACE, AN ATTRACTIVE OFFER FOR A PARTY THAT HAS BEEN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00754  02 OF 02  151209Z 
UNABLE TO RESPOND TO ITS CONSTITUENTS' DEMANDS FOR CHANGE, 
GIVEN ITS ABSENCE FROM THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH.  SINCE MUGABE 
HAS MADE CLEAR THAT HE WILL NOT ALLOW THE MDC TO ASSUME 
POWER EVEN IF IT WINS IN 2002, TSVANGIRAI MUST HAVE DECIDED 
THAT IT IS AT LEAST WORTH SEEING WHAT THE PRESIDENT HAS TO 
OFFER.  THE MDC LEADER'S INCLINATION TO PROCEED WITH SECRET 
TALKS, HOWEVER, POSES A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO THE COHESION OF 
THE PARTY.  AS PUZEY INTIMATED, MANY IN THE MDC LEADERSHIP 
AND AMONG THE PARTY'S SUPPORTERS BLAME MUGABE PERSONALLY 
FOR ZIMBABWE'S DESCENT INTO POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC TURMOIL 
AND WOULD STRONGLY REJECT PARTICIPATION IN A GOVERNMENT OF 
NATIONAL UNITY WITH A PRESIDENT THEY CONSIDER A WAR 
CRIMINAL.  BESIDES, MANY ZIMBABWEANS BELIEVE IT IS ONLY A 
MATTER OF TIME UNTIL THE MDC ASSUMES POWER AND THAT ALL 
THEY NEED TO DO IS WAIT FOR THE MUGABE-LED ZANU TO IMPLODE. 
TSVANGIRAI, THEREFORE, MUST TREAD VERY CAREFULLY.   END 
 
SIPDIS 
COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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