This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

061037Z Apr 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO6832

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5670
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC//NMJIC-J2// PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
USCINCEUR INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ2/DIA REP// PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/POLAD// PRIORITY
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK//DOOC// PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 001842 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01842  01 OF 04  061031Z 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - BILL JEFFERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN 
AFRICAN LEADER 
 
REF: HARARE 1691 (NOTAL) 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) ZIMBABWE'S INCREASINGLY DESPERATE RULING PARTY, 
ZANU-PF HAS RESORTED TO VIOLENCE, BOTH RHETORICAL AND 
PHYSICAL TO COMBAT ITS ERODING POPULARITY.  AS THREATS 
ISSUED BY ZANU-PF ESCALATE, SO DO INCIDENTS OF 
HARASSMENT AND MAYHEM AND THE DANGER THAT LESS STABLE 
ELEMENTS IN ZANU-PF WILL INTERPRET THEM AS A GREEN LIGHT 
FOR ANYTHING GOES.  ONE POLICEMAN WAS KILLED APRIL 3 ON 
A FARM OCCUPIED BY WAR VETERANS, WHOSE OWNER WAS 
SEVERELY BEATEN.  THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED PRESS HAS 
COLLABORATED IN THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORT TO SOW CONFUSION 
AND, SOME OBSERVERS SPECULATE, SET THE STAGE FOR A 
CRACKDOWN OR EVEN A STATE OF EMERGENCY.  THE MILITARY 
AND SECURITY FORCES WILL BE THE FINAL ARBITERS OF THE 
TRANSITION.  IN THE EYE OF THE STORM IS ROBERT MUGABE, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01842  01 OF 04  061031Z 
WHOM ARCHBISHOP TUTU RECENTLY DUBBED A CARICATURE OF AN 
AFRICAN LEADER.  THE PRESIDENT SINCERELY BELIEVES THE 
BRITISH, ZIMBABWEAN WHITES AND THE WEST IN GENERAL ARE 
TO BLAME FOR HIS SETBACKS DUE TO THEIR COLLUSIVE, 
TARGETED EFFORTS.  HE SEEMS SERENELY UNAWARE OF THE 
SERIOUSNESS OF THE SITUATION OF HIS PARTY AND COUNTRY. 
WHILE SOME SORT OF BRIDGE BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND 
OPPOSITION NEEDS TO BE BUILT, IT IS IMPROBABLE THAT THAT 
CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED PRIOR TO THE ELECTION.  MUGABE MAY 
WELCOME A VISIT BY A SENIOR AMERICAN OFFICIAL WHOSE 
PRIVATE MESSAGE WOULD BE ONE OF RESTRAINT.  AT THE SAME 
TIME WE MUST WORK WITH THE SOUTH AFRICANS, WHO SET THE 
STANDARD FOR PEACEFUL TRANSITION IN AFRICA, AND THE 
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS SECTOR TO PRESS FOR DOMESTIC 
ORDER AND A PEACEFUL WAY FORWARD IN ZIMBABWE.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
-------------------------- 
NO CONCERN FOR APPEARANCES 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) SADLY, THE MAN OF THE CLOTH GOT IT RIGHT. 
THINGS HAVE PROGRESSED TO SUCH A STATE IN ZIMBABWE THAT 
ARCHBISHOP DESMOND TUTU IN UPPSALA, SWEDEN, ON APRIL 4 
FOUND HIMSELF REFERRING TO PRESIDENT MUGABE AS A 
"CARICATURE."  "HE'S ALMOST A CARICATURE OF ALL THINGS 
PEOPLE THINK BLACK AFRICAN LEADERS DO.  HE SEEMS TO BE 
WANTING TO MAKE A CARTOON OF HIMSELF," THE SOUTH AFRICAN 
ANGLICAN ARCHBISHOP SAID.  TUTU MADE HIS OBSERVATION IN 
RESPONSE TO SWEDISH PRESS REPORTS THAT MUGABE, ONCE A 
GREAT IDEALIST, AT THE INAUGURATION OF A WATER PROJECT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01842  01 OF 04  061031Z 
FUNDED BY THE SWEDISH AID AGENCY SAID DEATH WOULD BEFALL 
THOSE WHO OPPOSED ZANU-PF.  "I THINK HE'S BECOME 
INCREASINGLY INSECURE, AND BECAUSE HE'S INSECURE HE'S 
HITTING OUT," THE ARCHBISHOP SUMMARIZED. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) MUGABE IS JOINED BY SUPPORTERS WHO NO LONGER 
SEEM TO CARE ABOUT THEIR INTERNATIONAL IMAGE, 
PARTICULARLY AS THEY ABSORB MORE INTELLIGENCE THAT THEIR 
SUPPORT BASE IS ERODING.  ON APRIL 1 "LIBERATION WAR 
VETERANS" (APPARENTLY MOSTLY YOUNG, UNEMPLOYED, PAID 
ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS) ATTACKED UNARMED PEACE MARCHERS IN 
DOWNTOWN HARARE, TARGETING SEVERAL WHITE SUPPORTERS OF 
THE OPPOSITION FOR VIOLENCE.  SEVERAL NCA ACTIVISTS WERE 
ARRESTED FOR FAILING TO DISPERSE, DESPITE THE FACT THAT 
THEY HAD A COURT ORDER ALLOWING THE "PEACE MARCH." 
POLICE DETAINED THEM OVER THE WEEKEND, AND HAULED THEM 
ON APRIL 3 BEFORE A JUDGE, WHO RELEASED THEM.  IT IS 
UNCLEAR WHETHER CHARGES HAVE BEEN DROPPED, HOWEVER. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) AT THE SAME TIME THE LEADERSHIP IS LOSING ITS 
COMPOSURE.  ON APRIL 2, IN AN EVENT RETURNING PROPERTY 
BELONGING TO ZIPRA EX-COMBATANTS, VICE PRESIDENT JOSEPH 
MSIKA SAID IN NDEBELE SOMETHING TO THE EFFECT THAT THE 
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) LEADER 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, WHOM HE DESCRIBED IN THE FOULEST 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO6833 
 
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O 061037Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5671 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
DIA WASHINGTON DC//NMJIC-J2// PRIORITY 
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY 
USCINCEUR INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ2/DIA REP// PRIORITY 
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/POLAD// PRIORITY 
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK//DOOC// PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 001842 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01842  02 OF 04  061031Z 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - BILL JEFFERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN 
AFRICAN LEADER 
 
LANGUAGE, WOULD WREST POWER FROM ZANU-PF "ONLY OVER OUR 
DEAD BODIES."  SIMILARLY, MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS 
DUMISO DABENGWA, NORMALLY IDENTIFIED WITH ZANU-PF'S 
MODERATE WING, MADE HARD-LINE NOISES IN THE PRESS APRIL 
5, SAYING THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAD LEARNED THAT THE MDC 
HAD WORKED OUT A STRATEGY TO CREATE ANARCHY IN THE 
COUNTRY TO FORCE THE GOVERNMENT TO CANCEL THE 
FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS.  HE ADDED THAT VARIOUS STRICT 
MEASURES TO COPE WITH PUBLIC DEMONSTRATIONS UNTIL THE 
ELECTIONS ARE OVER WERE BEING CONTEMPLATED.  MANY FEEL 
THESE STATEMENTS ARE A PRECURSOR TO DECLARING A STATE OF 
EMERGENCY. 
 
-------------------------------- 
ACTS OF VIOLENCE ON THE INCREASE 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) WAR VETERANS OCCUPYING A FARM IN MARONDERA 
SEVERELY BEAT ITS OWNER AND SHOT AND KILLED A POLICEMAN 
ON APRIL 4, ALLEGEDLY BECAUSE THE LAW ENFORCEMENT 
OFFICER WAS AN MDC SUPPORTER.  THREE MEN WERE ARRESTED 
BUT THEIR NAMES WERE NOT DIVULGED, A FACT THAT SUGGESTS 
THEY WILL BE RELEASED QUICKLY.  THAT SAME DAY, THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01842  02 OF 04  061031Z 
ZIMBABWE BROADCASTING SERVICE GAVE CHARLES NDLOVU, WHO 
EARLIER HAD PROCLAIMED IN THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED 
PRESS THAT THERE WOULD BE CIVIL WAR IF ZANU-PF DID NOT 
WIN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, A LENGTHY LARRY KING- 
LIKE INTERVIEW SLOT, AS THOUGH HE WERE A HIGHLY REGARDED 
OPINION MAKER.  FROM HIS BULLY PULPIT NDLOVU ISSUED A 
STREAM OF INVECTIVE AGAINST JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING AND 
EVERYONE, BLAMING THE MDC MARCH PARTICIPANTS FOR 
STARTING THE VIOLENCE ON APRIL 1.  ONE MIGHT SURMISE 
THAT BY ESCALATING THE RHETORIC MEANT TO BRING RACIAL 
TENSION TO AN ALL TIME HIGH IN ZIMBABWE, THE PRESIDENT 
IS GIVING ANTI-SOCIAL ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS WITH A LESS 
THAN SOLID GRIP ON REALITY LICENSE TO KILL. 
 
¶6.  (C) MEANWHILE, A NUMBER OF MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, 
ONCE MUGABE'S BLINDLY LOYAL SUPPORTERS, WILL NOT BE 
RETURNING, HAVING LOST THEIR BID FOR SEATS IN PARTY 
PRIMARY ELECTIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MANIPULATION AND 
OUTRIGHT VOTE BUYING.  AT LEAST FIVE ZANU-PF MEMBERS 
WILL BE RUNNING IN THEIR OLD DISTRICTS AS INDEPENDENTS, 
A FACT THAT SUGGESTS THAT THE PARTY ITSELF IS 
FRAGMENTING.  WITH SUCH A NUMBER OF DISGRUNTLED ELEMENTS 
THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT ZANU-PF MAY NOT 
MARSHAL THE 100 VOTES IT NEEDS TO PROMULGATE THE 
CONSTITUTION'S SIXTEENTH AMENDMENT.  MINISTER OF 
JUSTICE, LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON 
MNANGAGWA TOLD DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY WITNEY 
SCHNEIDMAN ON MARCH 23 THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL USE 
ADOPTION OF THE AMENDMENT TO CONVINCE THE WAR VETERANS 
TO MOVE OFF THE FARMS.  THE MINISTER ADDED THAT THE 
VETERANS' OBEDIENCE WOULD BE AUTOMATIC.  CONTACTED FOR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01842  02 OF 04  061031Z 
COMMENT APRIL 6, THE DIRECTOR OF THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL 
LIBERATION VETERAN'S ASSOCIATION, AGRIPPA GAVA, TOLD 
EMBASSY'S POLITICAL ASSISTANT THAT IT'S NOT A QUESTION 
OF THE AMENDMENT BECOMING LAW OR THE BRITISH PAYING FOR 
LAND, "WE ARE NEVER MOVING OUT!" 
 
------------------------ 
LAND CLAUSE MAY NOT PASS 
------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (C) IF THE AMENDMENT DOES NOT PASS WE FORESEE THE 
WAR VETERANS/ZANU-PF YOUTH GOING ON A RAMPAGE, SMASHING 
WINDOWS OF WHITE-OWNED SHOPS AND BLAMING THE OPPOSITION 
FOR THE VIOLENCE.  WE IMAGINE THAT THE NEXT STEP IN THIS 
SCENARIO WOULD SEE PRESIDENT MUGABE ORDER THE ARREST OF 
A NUMBER OF OPPOSITION FIGURES, INCLUDING MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI.  ADDING TO THE PLAUSIBILITY OF THIS SCRIPT 
 
SIPDIS 
IS THE FACT THAT THERE ARE ALREADY PUBLIC ALLEGATIONS 
THAT TSVANGIRAI HAS MISAPPROPRIATED ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF 
TRADE UNIONS FUNDS WHEN HE SERVED AS SECRETARY GENERAL, 
WHICH ALSO MIGHT CREATE A PRETEXT FOR ARRESTING HIM ON 
FRAUD CHARGES, AND ULTIMATELY DISQUALIFYING THE MDC 
PRESIDENT FROM RUNNING FOR A PARLIAMENTARY SEAT.  MUGABE 
THEN MIGHT APPEAR ON NATIONAL TELEVISION TO MAKE A 
DISTINCTLY LESS PRESIDENTIAL SPEECH THAN WHEN HE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO6834 
 
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O 061037Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5672 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
DIA WASHINGTON DC//NMJIC-J2// PRIORITY 
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY 
USCINCEUR INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ2/DIA REP// PRIORITY 
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/POLAD// PRIORITY 
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK//DOOC// PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 001842 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01842  03 OF 04  061031Z 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - BILL JEFFERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN 
AFRICAN LEADER 
 
CONCEDED LOSING THE CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM, CALLING 
THE MDC PUPPETS OF THE WHITES CONSPIRING TO BRING DOWN 
THE NATION, AND BLAMING DEFEAT OF THE AMENDMENT ON AN 
UNHOLY WESTERN/MDC ALLIANCE. 
 
--------------------- 
TAKING OFF THE GLOVES 
--------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) THE DEGREE OF THE RULING PARTY'S DESPERATION 
ALSO CAN BE SEEN IN THE VICIOUSNESS OF THE GOVERNMENT- 
CONTROLLED PRESS.  ON APRIL 4 "THE HERALD" NEWSPAPER 
PRINTED AN ARTICLE BASED ON AN UNCLEARED, BOOTLEG COPY 
OF A UNDP REPORT TO ATTACK THE WORLD BANK AND THE 
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND FOR ADVOCATING OPEN MARKETS 
FOR A ZIMBABWE UNPREPARED TO COPE WITH IT.  ON APRIL 5 
THE HERALD PRINTED AN ARTICLE CLAIMING THE BRITISH HAD 
CAPITULATED TO ALL PRESIDENT MUGABE'S DEMANDS AND WERE 
NOW PREPARING TO FUND HIS RESETTLEMENT SCHEME.  THE 
INTENT HERE APPEARS TO BE TO SOW CONFUSION AND DIVIDE 
PUBLIC OPINION.  ALTERNATIVELY, THE GOVERNMENT STRATEGY 
MAY BE TO SHOW THAT THE COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS ARE 
PAYING OFF WITH THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT YIELDING TO THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01842  03 OF 04  061031Z 
PRESSURE TO SUPPORT LAND REDISTRIBUTION, IN ADVANCE OF 
THE GOVERNMENT'S ANTICIPATED ADOPTION OF AMENDMENT 
NUMBER 16 TO ALLOW FOR LAND EXPROPRIATION. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
THE SECURITY FORCES AS ARBITERS OF EVENTS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) WHERE THINGS WILL GO DEPENDS ON THE SECURITY 
FORCES, AND WHETHER THEY WILL OBEY ORDERS TO INSTITUTE 
MARTIAL LAW OR A STATE OF EMERGENCY WHEN THE PRESIDENT 
DECIDES THE COUNTRY HAS BECOME OTHERWISE UNGOVERNABLE. 
AT THE MOMENT WE HAVE INDICATIONS THAT BOTH THE ARMY AND 
ESPECIALLY THE POLICE HAVE A NUMBER OF MDC SUPPORTERS. 
INDEED, THE POOR POLICEMAN WHO MADE THE ULTIMATE 
SACRIFICE ON A MARONDERA FARM WAS KILLED BECAUSE THE WAR 
VETERANS THOUGHT THAT WAS WHERE HIS SYMPATHIES LAID. 
THE 13,000 OR SO TROOPS IN THE CONGO HAVE HAD THEIR PER 
DIEMS CUT, AND TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY THEY HAVE NOT 
BEEN PAID IN FOUR MONTHS.  WE THINK THAT WHILE THE 
PRESIDENT SINCERELY WISHES TO BRING THE TROOPS HOME 
BECAUSE OF DIMINISHING RETURNS AND THE COST TO THE 
COUNTRY, THIS IS NOT THE MOMENT TO DO SO.  HE DOES NOT 
WANT A NUMBER OF DISGRUNTLED (AND PROBABLY UNEMPLOYED) 
MEN BACK IN ZIMBABWE TO SWELL THE RANKS OF THE 
OPPOSITION. 
 
¶10.  (C) SENIOR MILITARY FIGURES ARE WORRIED ABOUT 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WINNING OVER 76 SEATS IN PARLIAMENT, 
THE MAJORITY.  UNLIKE PRESIDENT WADE IN SENEGAL, 
TSVANGIRAI WAS NEVER PART OF THE GOVERNMENT AND IS 
 
SIPDIS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01842  03 OF 04  061031Z 
THEREFORE NOT A KNOWN QUANTITY TO THEM.  THE MDC LEADER 
ALSO HAS MADE IT CLEAR HE WILL ISSUE NO PRE-EMPTIVE 
PARDON FOR PRESIDENT MUGABE (OR ANYONE ELSE) SHOULD HIS 
PARTY GAIN CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT, AS WADE DID FOR 
EXITING PRESIDENT DIOUF.  AT THIS WRITING IT IS 
DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE TSVANGIRAI MUSTERING THE GRACE TO 
ASK ROBERT MUGABE TO REPRESENT HIM AT AN EVENT AS 
PRESTIGIOUS AS THE EU-AFRICA SUMMIT IN CAIRO.  WHILE WE 
HAVE HEARD THAT SENIOR MILITARY FIGURES, FOR EXAMPLE, 
DEFENSE FORCE COMMANDER VITALIS ZVINAVASHE, HAVE EITHER 
MET OR SENT RUNNERS TO TSVANGIRAI, WE SEE NO EVIDENCE 
THAT THESE CONTACTS HAVE BORNE FRUIT OR IMPROVED THEIR 
MUTUAL DISPOSITION.  IT'S CLEAR THAT WHAT IS MISSING IS 
SOME SORT OF BRIDGE THAT SPANS THE GULF OF DISTRUST AND 
ALLEGIANCES BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES.  MUGABE IS NO DIOUF, 
AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER SUCH A BRIDGE CAN BE 
BUILT. 
 
¶11.  (C) FINALLY, WE ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED MUGABE 
IS READING THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY CORRECTLY.  IN 
THE PRESIDENT'S ANALYSIS, THE BRITISH, ZIMBABWEAN WHITES 
AND THE WEST HAVE MASTERMINDED ALL THE RECENT REVERSES 
HE HAS SUFFERED BECAUSE HE IS A PRINCIPLED MAN WHO 
STANDS FOR SOMETHING.  MUGABE REMAINS DETACHED AND ALOOF 
FROM THE PROBLEMS OF THE COUNTRY, MOST RECENTLY JETTING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO6835 
 
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O 061037Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5673 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
DIA WASHINGTON DC//NMJIC-J2// PRIORITY 
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY 
USCINCEUR INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ2/DIA REP// PRIORITY 
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/POLAD// PRIORITY 
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK//DOOC// PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 001842 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01842  04 OF 04  061032Z 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA - BILL JEFFERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2010 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR SOCI MARR ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE CONFERRED STATUS OF A CARICATURE OF AN 
AFRICAN LEADER 
 
OFF TO EGYPT TO ATTEND THE EU-AFRICA SUMMIT, INSTEAD OF 
SUPERVISING PARTY MEETINGS OR ORGANIZING CAMPAIGN 
EFFORTS.  INSTEAD, HE APPEARS TO BELIEVE THAT 
INTIMIDATION AND FIGHTING WILL SOLVE HIS PROBLEMS.  HE 
HAS GIVEN THE WAR VETERANS VERY LOOSE REINS TO EXECUTE 
HIS GRAB BAG OF DIRTY TRICKS, AND GIVEN THEM MORE COVER 
AND PROTECTION THAN WE EVER EXPECTED.  AT THE SAME TIME, 
WE THINK HE UNDERESTIMATES JUST HOW DIFFICULT IT WILL BE 
TO MANAGE THE SITUATION HE HAS CREATED AND RESTORE LAW 
AND ORDER IN ZIMBABWE. 
 
--------------- 
RECOMMENDATIONS 
--------------- 
 
¶12.  (C) UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, OUR ABILITY TO 
INFLUENCE EVENTS IS VERY LIMITED.  NEVERTHELESS, WE 
BELIEVE MUGABE IS LIKELY TO LISTEN, AND PERHAPS HEED, 
PRIVATE MESSAGES OF RESTRAINT FROM SENIOR USG OFFICIALS 
IN THE RUN-UP TO AND AFTER THE ELECTION, PARTICULARLY IF 
THESE MEETINGS ARE CAST AS "CONSULTATIONS" WITH THE 
ZIMBABWEAN HEAD OF STATE.  WE HAVE BEEN URGED TO REMAIN 
ENGAGED WITH MUGABE AND HIS GOVERNMENT BY PEOPLE BOTH 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01842  04 OF 04  061032Z 
INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE RULING PARTY, WHO SENSE THAT THE 
GOVERNMENT WILL ONLY BECOME MORE REPRESSIVE IF IT 
PERCEIVES ITSELF AS UNDER ATTACK FROM THE WEST.  A 
SECONDARY MESSAGE OUR SENIOR OFFICIAL MIGHT DELIVER IS 
THAT ZIMBABWE HAS INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS IN THE DROC, 
WHICH IT RECONFIRMED IN NEW YORK IN JANUARY, AND IN THE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN SUB-CONTINENT, WHICH ITS VOLATILE 
DOMESTIC POLITICS ARE HINDERING.  WE SHOULD URGE 
ZIMBABWE AT EVERY LEVEL TO GET ITS HOUSE IN ORDER 
THROUGH PEACEFUL, DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS, AND GET BACK ON 
TRACK WITH THE PEACE PROCESS.  AN EARLY VISIT TO 
ZIMBABWE BY A SENIOR AMERICAN OFFICIAL WOULD BE HELPFUL. 
 
¶13.  (C) IN ADDITION TO THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP, 
THERE ARE OTHER AVENUES OF COMMUNICATION AND INFLUENCE 
THAT WE COULD DRAW UPON.  FROM MULTIPLE POINTS, THE USG 
COULD PRESS THE SOUTH AFRICANS, BOTH IN GOVERNMENT AND 
THE PRIVATE SECTOR, TO DIALOGUE WITH THEIR ZIMBABWEAN 
COUNTERPARTS.  THE SOUTH AFRICANS EXECUTED A MODEL FOR 
PEACEFUL TRANSITION IN AFRICA AND HAVE A LOT TO 
CONTRIBUTE TO RETURNING DOMESTIC ORDER AND A WAY FORWARD 
TO ZIMBABWE.  AT THE SAME TIME WE COULD MORE PRO- 
ACTIVELY ENGAGE MULTINATIONAL BUSINESSES ESTABLISHED IN 
ZIMBABWE TO RAISE THEIR CONCERNS WITH THE ZIMBABWEAN 
GOVERNMENT AND THE OPPOSITION.  THOUGH TO DATE THE 
PRIVATE SECTOR'S DEGREE OF INFLUENCE WITH THE GOVERNMENT 
HAS BEEN SECONDARY, THE JOBS, TAXES AND UNDERPINNING 
THEY PROVIDE ARGUE FOR A MORE VISIBLE SEAT AT THE TABLE. 
 
IRVING 
 
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